Member Info for Agricore

And it's true that you and I could do that during an hour Acuere. Pick pick pick. And maybe for a few more hours besides. But hour after hour after hour? Hmmmm. No. Well, I can't speak for you but for me that's why we need robots. FIPP has a holding that has robots. And as Aqc888 points out, even if we are committed to the cause of raspberry picking (hint: most aren't) then the robots have 4 arms and we have 2. And the robot is more consistent, delicate and precise in Aqc888's words (Agricore > and the robot doesn't scoff half the harvest either?). It's a maturing range of products for today's world. Love that synopsis, and yes, indeed it is a maturing investment for Fippers.

I will console myself on FIPP's reduction in Exscientia and instead celebrate the other clever holdings it holds. To be fair, these deserve their day in the sun, rain, all weathers..... robots continue to pick raspberries in all weathers. With 4 arms. Next year it'll be 8 arms. Then 16. And this is why FIPP exists. We can't grow more than 2 arms, we are just humans with our investments and we can only ponder and chat about FIPP and is it worth investing in? My brain concludes yes. What does yours tell you?

GLA

Bank of Georgia heralded the strong Georgian economy in its update to the market. We are at 55% discount to NAV - keep the buy backs coming CGEO!

Sntali Mining (or Santali Mining)
Think of the Periodic table? SnTaLi

Speaking of whom, a reiteration from Singers of target 125p and they see the cash realisation of £3.88m from Exscientia providing 19 months runway to FIPP itself and/or that the funds can accelerate it's "maturing portfolio". (CAmGrApHiC, Pulsiv, Vaccine Group, Nandi Proteins)..... nothing like a cheeky Nandi is there.
To achieve in Singer's view an exit likely at a "materially higher valuation."
Just to recap 2021 actuals were: 16.6p EPS and 69.8p NAV.
And grew from 41p to 51p to 69.9p from 2019 to 2021. (almost 40% NAV growth last year!)
So it doesn't take much more than continuing its trajectory for 2022 EPS and further NAV appreciation to see that the current share price only slightly above last NAV is quite tasty indeed.
GLA

I was thinking from a micro business level perspective but I agree completely on the points made about the macro picture.
Another way to think about this is consider who else felt it was "worth" investing here. Glencore are arguably the most profitable/successful commodity trader in the world and they are also the biggest shareholder here.

Go back and read the IRR numbers and the forecast cashflow from 2024. Then you will feel a lot better. There's an investors presentation from 2 months ago worth rewatching.
Don't forget how they bought the 2nd equipment line for £7m (brand new the same 1st line cost £150m). Lowest Quartile Costs and extremely low CO2 nickel... if Battery bring in scope 2 CO2 validation through blockchain ledgers HZM nickel would attract a premium.

Did you buy this to trade a make a quick buck? There were numerous occasions in the past 12 months where this was 70% higher than now. If this is your intention perhaps trading isn't for you.
Or did you buy this to invest in a good business that makes long term returns? Go back to what I said at the beginning. At sub 100p this is a great opportunity to average down if you want to. There's no discernable reason for it being as low as this. Nothing has changed and the forecast for nickel prices is strong.
GLA

I found his comment about being the first baffling. Did he mean the first Namibian lithium miner in London?! Surely you all realise there’s already plenty of lithium miners listed?

Only if like in Chariots of Fire you can run a 4 minute mile.
You'd need to be at least 1/2 mile away in about 2 minutes by my reckoning to be far enough away from the hydrogen tank. I say 2 minutes because this video illustrates why!!! IES need to equip their sales team with a copy of this video!!! :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIH9ED0j5dQ

Acuere, well we have half a jewel left at least.

What did you find underwhelming? It wasn't the $5.2bn Sanofi collaboration was it? The prospect of high single digit to mid teens royalties from Sanofi? Not the $117m cash inflows or $732m cash warchest giving 10 years runway if needed? It wasn't the 30 in-progress internal and partnership pipelines or the 5-10 new ones they will add in the coming year? As with any pharma this will have lumpy payoffs for Exscientia, so no big fish this quarter but they'll come in time.

I do understand why FIPP want to focus on their portfolio and realised some cash, but I was disappointed they did so at an inopportune time. I do agree the outsize realised gain comment was eye popping. I thought maybe they'd muddled their numbers but this is an RNS and they'd have had sign off from their NOMAD etc.

If you've been invested here longer than 10 minutes then you're almost certainly sitting on a paper loss. I've agonised over topping up and while my heart says yes my head is stopping me.

Has anyone taken the plunge and had a tasty 0.4p share top up?

Hi all, was re-reading Investor's Chronicle where ST asserts the current NTAV is 20.7p (and MTR traded at the time at a 40% discount to that).
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/06/20/bargain-shares-exploiting-a-valuation-disconnect/
Does anyone know how he arrives at this? I ask because the last accounts 31/12/21 the NAV was 22.9p (£33.8m) and intangible assets were sub £50k (split between some software and a project intangible). That takes me to 22.8p at best.

I'm not aware MTR publish a monthly NAV (don't laugh at my rhetorical question please) unless he's made a calculation based on movements in 2022? Hang on. Weasel words. Rather than using the usual (!) words of "Discount to NAV" he's says the NTAV is 40% higher than market cap - so a 40% mark up is a 30% margin. I'm assuming the use of NTAV rather than NAV is just a typo.

Just been trying to recalculate NAV based on events in 2022: (maybe that's what he did?)
-£0.5m loss on the Kalahari sale (albeit plus the future 2% NSR which could be substantial).
-£0.4m Armada
+£1.1m Value of unclaimed Armada Warrants ($0.80-$0.33)
+£5.3m gain on value of Cobre
-£7.5m loss on value of Sandfire
+£0.1m dividend from Sandfire
-£0.5m loss on value of Southern
= -£2.4m total (NB I haven't recalculated the smaller holdings)
Revised NAV as at 18th August £31.4m or based on 169m shares an 18.5p NAV per share. So share price is a revised 13.5% discount to NAV. Out of interest I now wonder whether ST did a similar recalculation and looking at Sandfire being 60c higher yes he might have. Does anyone have a view of the future for Sandfire? If it returned to it's year end value the NAV per share would leap to £38.9m which is back to a NAV of 23p/share. The sharp eyed would say ah ha back to the 31/12/21 NAV ..... we seem to now have 9 million more shares in issue than in December 21. (160m 31/12/21 and 169m today)
Bit of a ramble, sorry, but just trying to square up this one in my head. Have I missed anything of substance?
GLA

Stas20, of course. Don't forget this one from your revised list for Boltok: Janus Henderson. They have $419bn AUM.

Stas20, I agree with your point but you need to take out number 5,6 and 8 since these aren't institutional investors at all. They are nominee holdings (comprised of private investors). This explains nominee holdings: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-1568247/CREST-or-nominee.html

My take on today's news is that KAV has shortened the odds for a prospective JV investor. I would expect the report is written to play to the retained geologists in the majors. There is market-sensitive information in the report and that's the reason for the NDA. The point of the work, is to package up the KSZ into several potential plays, potentially with different JVs. (Be that north and south or whatever)

A larger miner might well throw $10m cash at the option for a JV with an enormous pay off and limited risk. Or who knows may just want to buy a slice of the KSZ at a price KAV can't refuse. If they are buying the next Bushveld that's a big deal and you wouldn't commit to that with anything less than a 300 page report with i's dotted and t's crossed.

The report and today's RNS is not to convince us investors as to the merits or demerits of the KSZ or to announce any particular new discovery. The JV plan is firmly in BT's sights. So we are one step further along the plan, which is a positive.

GLA

Indeed. It's worth pointing out that many of the "great and good" people involved in energy transition either visit or spend time at this site. Even if they are involved in related areas like solar, the work being done on tidal/hydrogen is world leading. See their client list:
https://www.emec.org.uk/about-us/
So this is an important demonstrator where those involved in renewable energy see up front how the technology works and inevitably the question "Why didn't you use lithium?" will come up.

The degree this project will influence key people and decision makers and how this will shape future sales, should not be under estimated.

GLA

This update from Indus should have a positive read across for GEEC.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INDI/gas-sales-price-increase-3ub5fxwl9vlen56.html

I think it's because some people get bored. They see it like a trade not an investment.

It's quite simple really Illaquens. Royalty usually work on charitable endeavours, snipping ribbons to open leisure centres that sort of thing. Perhaps a spot of military service too. They could sit on their thrones counting out their money, but instead are gripped by an inate sense of public duty.

Meanwhile back in the world of Metaltiger and I suppose contrasting MTR vs say TRR the problem is there's no future profile of returns in a nice bar graph. So people like RichieRich get a Jerry McGuire moment and are saying in their own unique way "Show me the money". The art of investment in my opinion, is for the patient investor to understand the value on offer here and pick up the discarded shares from those who can't cope without a nice bar graph clearly showing them the money! MTR don't really communicate the future value very clearly on their web site do they? i.e. https://www.metaltigerplc.com/portfolio/royalty-investments

One day we'll wake up to a similar RNS. Ditau assays are outstanding, soil samples at the KCB (I look at the map and see Sandfire's phenomenal copper discoveries at A4 and T3 are nearby to KAV's claim). Last but certainly by no means least the KSZ and the olympic damn style.
Good on POW for getting that initial result and hopefully the follow up drilling proves fruitful.

NB: Apologies I didn't include the $7.5m (payment for 49% of Lithium) as a part of profit. I pondered this one and then forgot about it. This would sit as deferred income and let's assume the life of the lithium mining will be 10 years then we would recognise $0.75m GP over those 10 years. So please add a further $0.75 (£0.62m) to my 2022 and 2023 estimates. The 49% profit share more or less offsets the release of deferred income, at least in the early years.