Member Info for Adyan9200

I think there's 2 major factors causing concern among investors which has been causing the downward trend over last 7 months: (1) Banking Covenants - We know PDL are in talks with the banks about this, because of revenue etc coming below expectations. Once these talks are concluded and we hear from PDL, if it's all fine which I would expect it to be, I can see it will provide a boost to the Share price. (2) The SA mining charter I'm still of the opinion we will see quite a bit of fluctuation in share price for the moment, until some time in September, when I'm hoping we will start seeing a consistent upward trend which hopefully will continue through autumn.

The 25K seller is very persistent, makes it difficult to breach 221p. Wonder how much more they have still to sell.

FinnCap today retains a Buy rating with target of 151p (down from 203p previously). I think most brokers have moved to the 150p-160p range now.

I'm still of the opinion we'll see a proper recovery and a more sustained upward trend starting from September. In the mean time, anything can happen. Didn't see any more negative news from the RNS that wasn't previously announced in last update and hence should be already priced in, but for anyone who's watched this share for a while, it always seems to dip after a trading update.

Barclays Capital has released today a Overweight rating with target of 154p (back in April they had target of 185p). It's all wait and see at the moment until 24 Jul, only another week to go. I'm really hoping it'll all be positive news.

Difficult to say, we're due "FY 2017 Trading Update & FY 2018 Market Guidance" on 24 July, if that provides positive news to FY 2018 guidance and positive news in sorting out the debt and banking convenants, then I would expect a decent jump up from the current price. If more negative news, then we'll definitely be hitting below 100 easily, maybe low as 80-90p. My personal opinion is it's probably at good price to buy in at 102p (I think all the current negative news has now fully been taken into account), and as I'm fairly optimistic the 24 Jul update will provide a "we're back on track" statement, so should move up quickly.

Any idea when the Q2 Production Results will be released, I thought it would have been Yesterday as last couple of years it's been on 3 or 4 July. I'm guessing it will be Friday now.

Interesting to see the new Broker Targets JP Morgan Cazenove - Overweight - 160p New target Investec Securities - Sell - 87.00 New Target (there old target was 110p) - Their main reason for sell rating seems to be regarding the debt and banking convenants. Liberum Capital - Buy - 190p My personal opinion is, if there are no more hiccups we should see this rising steadily from September. We're due a trading update on 24 July, which will contain more detailed guidance for 2018 which could help give a boost, but we'll have to wait and see.

Shore Capital said: "All things considered, we would not be surprised to see Petra's shares sharply down today. However, we note that the share price had already come off significantly, and any significant fall today could represent a tempting opportunity, as we expect FY2018 operational and financial performance to be materially better." RBC Capital Markets said: "A difficult operating year comes to a close with a guidance downgrade; while challenges have now been addressed, we think the market will likely wait to see delivery of operational outperformance before adding to positions. A disappointing trading statement but we look to FY18E with a more optimistic view as free cash flow generation should increase driven by better throughput, grades and mix."

I don't think the Rand Vs Sterling is a problem, if anything the Rand is actually stronger against the £ from a year ago. It has achieved record revenue and production this financial year, so much better placed than it was last year, but unfortunately 8-9% below what the market expected. For FY 18, they expect to reach the 5 million carats production and this is being done a year ahead than originally anticipated. So today's fall is mainly because it didn't meet what market expected, even though it's increased revenue and production quite a bit. There's 3 main reason for current depressed price: 1) Today's result being below market expectation by 8-9% (This is short term, as they're back on track for FY 18) 2) Getting close to bank covenants (This is short term I believe, once discussions are completed and they release an updated statement, then we should be okay. ) 3) New mining charter (this could drag for a while as it's all political and really hard to know what will happen. I do think Govt and Mining Companies will eventually have to get together and come up with a fair deal. the current new deal has had a lot of backlash, even among parts of the ANC Govt) I'll add a fourth one, which is the lack of any recent big diamond finds which would normally help give a bit of a boost to revenue and help cancel out minor set-backs in production etc. My personal opinion is that it'll start heading north maybe around September on wards, but that's really just a personal guess.

The Share price seems to have come back a full circle to where we were last June. Even though revenue etc has all increased, but because of the extra time it's taken to ramp-up production at some of the mines, it'll be below market expectations, but the good news it they believe they'll be on target for 2018 FY. Liberum Capital this morning "Reiterates" Buy rating with 190p target. I'm hopeful it'll slowly start making it's way back up, but it will likely take a few months. If they could find some big diamonds in-between, that'll definitely help give a little boost to the share price.

It's mainly to redress the inequalities of Apartheid by giving certain previously disadvantaged groups of South African citizens economic privileges previously not available to them under White rule. Which is perfectly fine and understandable, and therefore why the government back in I think 2003 got together with the mining industry and came to an agreement on the mining charter and the 26% BEE ownership that I mentioned previously. Unfortunately the new mining charter is all to do with politics in the ANC, to try and buy votes and to some extent corruption (wealthy individuals linked to ANC who benefited previously wanting another piece of the pie regardless if it ends up destroying the industry) and had hardly any input from the mining industry. The Mining industry has been in decline for a while, but just as it's showing good recovery late last year and this year, this comes along. I'm hoping the saner elements in the ANC will manage to put some sense into the mining minister, but not sure what will happen as there's already different factions in the ANC fighting each other. All to do with politics now. Credit Rating Agencies have today warned if the new mining charter comes into force, they will downgrade the ratings for the mining companies.

Good to see Blackrock have increased their stake in PDL, they must be confident of share price recovering and going up.

It seems the new Mining Charter released yesterday in South Africa is the reason for the sharp fall in South African mining companies and RAND. I must say it's extremely badly thought through and is very likely to discourage investing in South Africa. Main points being: 1. Requirement of 30% BEE ownership (from previous 26%) - BUT if companies previously met the 26% and the BEE sold their shares, mining companies have to get it back to 30% and keep it there, which is totally crazy. Also this requirement has to be met within 12 months. 2. 1 per cent of revenue must also be paid to the Mining Transformation and Development agency I've had a look at Petra Diamond, and luckily from what I can see, we still meet the 26% because of the smart way they set up the BEE ownership. 12% is owned by Itumeleng Petra Diamonds Employee Trust and 14% Kago Diamonds (pty) Ltd, so we don't have BEE who have sold. Therefore I would assume they would only have to raise 4% more into BEE ownership, so we're probably much better placed than the other mining companies in SA who may have BEE's who have sold their stakes. I think there will be quite a bit of volatility for next couple of weeks, which is unfortunate esp as Petra Diamond performance this year was expected to be much better, we'll know more on 24 Jul.

You may have seen this already but thought I'll post it - "South African Miners Face Increased BEE Ownership - Bloomberg". http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareAllNews.asp?shareprice=PDL&code=jp1lrbkm&headline=PRESS_South_African_Miners_Face_Increased_BEE_Ownership__Bloomberg

I don't think it's the currency causing the fall. The only thing I can think of is the recent issue with Acacia and the fallout from that (e.g. possible 1% fee for exports being introduced). And Tazania requiring mining companies to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange which will affect Petra Diamonds. I'm hoping it'll start rising closer to 140p in July as we approach the trading update on 24 July. All the broker forecast have around 190p, so depending on the July trading update, we could possible get back to 150p and above.

If you're looking to dip into this share, I agree, it's a very good point to come in. Not sure if this is the bottom of the slide though, normally it had support at 123, but it's gone below that for past couple of days, which is very disappointing to see.

We may have to wait until 24 Jul when trading update will be announced for more solid upward movement, unless they have any big diamond finds in-between. I do wonder if the Tanzania requirement that mining companies have to list on on its bourse by August has maybe caused the share to keep low (causing people to sell). Not too sure what effect that would have.

I wonder if it's "D & A Income Limited" who is selling in the 25K batches. I know back in April they went below the 5% threshold, so could be continuing to sell. Unfortunately it's continuing to hold the share price down, no idea when they will finish.

Definitely nice to see. I really didn't expect today's rise, I was thinking it might move down to around 133, before moving back up to around 136/137. Happy to see the rise :)