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I think this is a good deal and really hope they succeed in reaching the forecast revenue.

1. I do not believe OPTI is providing all the £1.5m marketing otherwise it would have been clearer. Instead I believe they are contributing to it, maybe as a 50/50 but definitely not all.

2. I like that Morepen have got a solid marketing plan, with an app and other elements being added to the mix to really make it a whole life-style weight-loss/fitness journey.

3. OPTI will be making revenue at two points.

-- a. On the Raw Material sold.

-- b. And a larger amount on the finished products sold to Morepen.

From my research Morepen is quite good at marketing their goods, so there is more optimism about this deal than others we have done. But I think the big difference is we will be making money on the finished products being sold to Morepen, which is a lot more lucrative than our other deals where we're only making money on raw material which is a lot less value.

@Bubs49 - It was people ringing Tata pretending to be from Optibiotix trying to find out more info. That did not go down well with Tata.

I don't subscribe to TW, therefore what I have heard is secondhand from other forums etc.

1. Morepen launch in next 10 days or so

2. Pepsi Co was mentioned (nothing signed or such, I think just talks)

Looking at the RNS from 19 July 2023

"The Company has been working with a wide range of industry partners since 2020 and has Material Transfer Agreements ("MTA"), and/or Non-Disclosure Agreements ("NDA"), and/or Open innovation arrangements with well-known consumer brands like Kellogg's, Nestle, Coca Cola, Cargill and more specialised sweetener and fibre groups like Tereos, Givaudan, Sudzucker, Puratos and Firmench. These agreements allow us to share information and products whilst protecting our intellectual property and partners to receive information and different SweetBiotix® products to test within their product ranges. "

I don't see PepsiCo being mentioned previously.

I have no idea in what sense PepsiCo was mentioned, it could be with regards to Slimbiome for all we know.

It could even be they been added to the list of companies like in the above paragraph where a MTA/NDA etc has been signed.

As we've had plenty of false dawns in the past, I think we'll need to wait for any RNS for confirmed news about stuff.

It also explains why we haven't been able to find Morepen Slimbiome products previously as they hadn't yet launched.

Seems the info TW posted yesterday has given the share a major boost.

Let's hope we start getting some regular updates from OPTI in the run up to Christmas.

Rankamateur55 - This was a question I asked Elric. Generally the company has to provide the market with the forecasts if the forecast is material. However, if there are material uncertainties of the accuracy then it may class as an exception.

As Croda started forward selling back in June, therefore I believe Croda will be able to provide decent forecast for the near term. Therefore me personally, I'm hoping SBTX will be able to provide revenue for SBTX forecast.

Bk2011 - As the takeover will take a bit of time to occur, we will have to wait to see what happens.

But it seems with SIX behind it, they will:

- Potentially get more brokers dealing with Aquiss platform

- They mention “scale the business beyond its home markets”, so maybe make it easier for foreign firms to list on it or be make it easier for foreign brokers to buy/sell shares on it.

- If they want to challenge AIM, then they are going to have to do a lot more than what Aquiss have done so far.

I'm hoping if PBX don't move to AIM in the future, then this takeover helps Aquiss expand it's reach and provide more liquidity which would benefit us PBX holders.

From the article:

“Under SIX’s ownership, Aquis will be better placed to deliver on its strategy of developing innovative capital market solutions from a position of further scale,” Aquis said.

The Swiss firm said the acquisition was a “compelling strategic opportunity” which will complement its strategy to “scale the business beyond its home markets”.

Analysts at AJ Bell said the deal could mean that London’s AIM market could soon face a “serious challenger”.

“SIX Group is an established player and could have some interesting ideas about how to make Aquis a success,” Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell told City AM.

Interesting:

https://www.cityam.com/aquis-exchange-accepts-194m-offer-from-six-group/

Dustbin101 - Some very valid points. Each company will likely have different plans, some may go with a much more cautious approach, whereas others may go with a big bang.

With regards to the Croda results, we don't know if they are including revenue for Skinbiotix forward selling yet. I think they will only include those sales once delivery has taken effect. And as you mentioned, it's possible some companies are ordering less of Matrixyl which is offsetted by them ordering Skinbiotix. All this is speculative from us though.

I'm hoping we get some big clients ordering big Launch size orders. This is where they decide to launch a new product with a lot of marketing spend, getting prominent placing in stores and therefore they order a lot more than they normally do, as they'll want to associate this new ingredient to be synonymous with their brand.

I think there is a lot of impatience even though we've been given timelines, we know we are likely to get news within next 2 weeks. We may already have agreed commercial terms, what can take time is drawing up the actual contract, which needs to be passed to and fro each sides legal team. This can take time as a certain phrase/term/word can be debated, added, modified etc and as the smaller company you do not want to rush that in case you miss something that could negatively affect you.

So we have the Company Secretary, Mark Collingbourne, buying shares. But still none from Steen Andersen.

Martinu, yes, I had heard about SOH's health issue.

However, I'm hoping most of the commercial contracts/progress had been done before SOH became unwell and hopefully things are still progressing even without SOH in the driving seat for the moment.

Sweetbiotix solid progress update is probably the only thing that will help the share price at the moment. I don't think Dr Morepen news is going to help at moment, they were supposed to go live with products in Q3 onwards, The only thing I've found is Dr Morepen LifeLight https://www.1mg.com/otc/dr-morepen-lightlife-pre-meal-nutrition-mix-5g-each-sachet-fruit-punch-otc1039953 which says sold out, can't find it anywhere else though.

I'm really hoping we get a Sweetbiotix update this month with solid progress with commercialisation made. There's been a total lack of update on Sweetbiotix since February whereas I had expected to hear regular updates throughout the year.

Don't know if anyone knows, but when next are board members due to be voted on? I'm guessing if it's 3 years before they need re-electing, it'll be the AGM in 2026 at earliest. OPTI would then be able to use it's vote. But Question will be, how much more stranglehold will Steen have by then (more share raise, options etc) and what damage might he have done by then (would he had succeeded in taking it private). I really can't see him doing whats best for shareholders (exc Frederik Bruhn-Petersen).

@TheWigster - I'm not entirely sure, but SOH might not have been able to vote without authorization from Peterhouse, so his votes might not be included. I'm hoping someone else can clarify.

As to Seneca, I don't see how you can say they are not independent. They are an institutional investor, therefore will be looking for the best interest of their clients.

@LWHL - I totally agree, and this is why many investors started worrying when the raise was done, and many saw Steen might be looking to take the company private, and this was before OPTI released their RNS confirming Steen had approached them earlier in the year about taking it private.

When I first started investing, I've was unlucky to have a company be taken private, luckily it was only a very small amount invested in that company, but was not a good experience. Lesson learned. Therefore, you really need to watch sign for such.

I posted this on PBX also. It was always going to be a uphill battle with OPTI being prevented from voting because of court order and Frederik Bruhn-Petersen being able to use his newly acquired shares to vote..

If we ignore the new 36,500,000 shares, then the voting would have been:

Number of Votes Against: 8,036,597 = 29.87%

Number of Votes For: 18,869,846 = 70.13%

I don't know how many shares Steen was able to use in Proxy to vote against the Resolution.

Therefore from the above, you can see from all the truly independent share-holders, the resolutions would have passed easily even without OPTI if Frederik Bruhn-Petersen hadn't also been allowed to vote.

It was always going to be a uphill battle with OPTI being prevented from voting because of court order and Frederik Bruhn-Petersen being able to use his newly acquired shares to vote..

If we ignore the new 36,500,000 shares, then the voting would have been:

Number of Votes Against: 8,036,597 = 29.87%

Number of Votes For: 18,869,846 = 70.13%

I don't know how many shares Steen was able to use in Proxy to vote against the Resolution.

Therefore from the above, you can see from all the truly independent share-holders, the resolutions would have passed easily even without OPTI if Frederik Bruhn-Petersen hadn't also been allowed to vote.

Thanks AquaeSulis01, nice to know.

As OPTI are subject to a Court order, their only option would be to challenge that. However, I doubt they have anywhere enough time to do that, which could probably take months.

I find the excuse Peterhouse is using that they haven't named someone to replace Steen quite weak, as they don't seemed to have looked at what triggered all this in the first place. Also if OPTI were to name someone, they could easily be excused of interfering, hence it's reasonable that talks are held after the resolutions if they are passed to take into consideration other shareholders opnions and the left over directors.

The issue now is that, with OPTI out of the way, Steen now has a guaranteed 23% on his side.

I guess if the majority of other shareholders who do vote, vote for the resolution, even though they will likely lose unless there's a massive turnout , OPTI would be able to use that as evidence in any future challenge to the court order preventing them using their vote.

Croda deal is the kind of event that can help propel a share to multi-bag in a very short period of time. However, until the forecasts are released, no one knows how much it could be worth for FY25 or ahead, we can all only have guesses and therefore base our investment decision on that.

I think those forecasting in the 100K's are probably thinking that companies will order sample size orders, so they can use the ingredient in new/existing products and then test it out with a few consumers to get feedback etc and have a very soft launch.

However, we know the biggest clients have had samples for a year and would have tested the ingredient in their products (whether new or existing) and would be placing launch size orders at the least.

Now launch size orders can actually be considerable and be much higher than normal routine orders where a product is established. But it all depends on the company launching it. If they decide on a big launch with big marketing spend etc, then they'll be spending money in ensuring their product is prominently displayed in shops and therefore making large orders. However, other clients may decide for soft launch etc.

I do believe we will get at least a couple of clients doing a big launch, as they'll want to associate this new ingredient to be synonymous with their brand.

My own estimate is much higher and much more optimistic, we know SBTX will get a premium double digit royalty, now I know lots of people are using 10%, which is definitely not a premium double digit, my hope is that it's around 20% but I can only guess.

BTW I could be totally wrong, and those on the lower end could be 100% right or something unfortunate happens like SBTX fail to agree commercial terms with Croda.

I think because Croda have delayed time and again, that still sits on everyone's mind.

But from all my research and research by others, I'm more certain on the prospects on this share than any other I look at.

It's definitely the most existing period for SBTX.

I think there is going to continue to be some volatility in the wider market until the Budget is announced, therefore I think the market as a whole is nervous.

I think the reason SBTX hasn't flown or reached where we may have expected with the transformation and potential is many:

1. Historical reasons, past performance. There being delays after delays, then revenue not hitting expectations etc.

2. I think more and more investors now generally wait for hard figures before making decisions as many have likely been bitten in the past by AIM companies esp.

3. Contradictory information being given out, e.g. TW who has a large following etc.

4. It does seem there is a large seller in the background, which has preventing the momentum from pushing it higher.

5. Many investors look at Director buys also to make decisions.

It does mean investors can miss out in the early multi-bag, but can still multi-bag at higher price points after hard figures are released etc.

Myself personally, I think anyone entering in last 3 months and even now would have entered at the sweet point. From all the shares I currently monitor, this is definitely by far the most promising to me.