Member Info for Adw198

The other issue in the risk reward analysis is even if H2 does come in as commercial in its own right, there’s a lack of clarity of who will do the work to bring it on stream.

We’ve been told the team will move immediately to Gazelle. I’m sceptical H2 will produce anything this year and as I say the numbers aren’t fabulous with oil where it is.

Next week we’ll have some more answers which might make me regret my sale, rejoice about it or perhaps I’ll buy back.

Lots of decisions…

@ftsemajor

They 100% would not have lasted the year without the raise last year (obviously discounting the money they spent on the ringfenced activity).

They apparently prepared a budget showing income and expenditure - so it’s fair to ask what income they projected as the market were never told. And there was no sales deal at the time too.

This year is the same imo.

@gravy I can categorically confirm I did not receive a ban for vile language. If you want to tell me your average I’ll answer any other questions but preferably about the company rather than the pantomime you like for.

The other thing I’m discussing with the company and their auditors Hall Chadwick is the very dubious Going Concern status in the accounts.

It’s quite apparent the board have twice now prepared a budget that has no grounding in reality. The auditors should have been stress testing the claims there’s enough money because quote evidently there wasn’t last year. This year I similarly expect the figures will show we’d have gone bust without the $4.5m raise.

All good company analysis this, which is my understanding of the reason for the board so I’ll continue to share my analysis .

Objectively, with material news due, it’s not a great sign there’s only £3k worth of buys and some 7figure sells. Imagine the nudge nudge wink wink leaky ships speculation if the reverse was true.

It’s another reason I bailed.

I’ll post honestly about the company as much as I want gravy.

And you can spend your time shouting at people for talking about the company.

The board is a place for adult analysis and childlike behaviour alike.

Fair summary Thorn.

I’ve not sold because of the delay because I don’t think there is one. Although that’s partly because I wasn’t telling everyone it’d be

We were told by Abzzba “no news means good news” last time they worked on Heron2.

Then the RNS came out out saying they’d had some drill issues and then obviously found the non commercial results.

So his analysis is discredited. He’s the same guy who tried whipping up FOMO saying it wouldn’t take 20days etc etc.

I sold the rest of mine this morning. Whilst I expect H2 to be marginally commercial the tax issue seems uncertain both in terms of timeframe and outcome. and Also don’t know when Heron1 will stop declining.

I think you’re getting your Adw’s mixed up Thorn.

I now have a near namesake who is clearly another of your old cult leader’s aliases (WOS).

“Got your other id up and running yet 198 ?”

No. Unlike WOS, Rambo, Realpro, adw189 I only have 1 account.

When I’m done here (probably within 10 days) I’ll see if I can start a new account. Purely and solely because the stalkers here who object to my analysis will ruin other boards if I comment there. So in some ways the loons have succeeded in driving anything bar biased views being shared.

Nice 2million buy that at the end.

Perhaps it was WOS’s rich mates who were going to pile in when it was 1.80p?!

:)

If anyone wants to mock Doc (or me) for a c r a p investment then no need to look elsewhere - MATD is the basket case and embarrassment!

“I have no idea how they calculate the compensation for producing wells.”

The is no formula. It’s a commercial negotiation that will consider the output of the well and it’s likely shelf life, amongst things.

@manx

“ADW, I don't believe H2 will be a massive rerate for the sp. More a gentle nudge up”.

Agreed. If successful I expect / hope the SP to move towards the 1.05p gap. It’s why I’m holding.

“I feel that on a back of a cigarette packet calculations basis, that IF H2 were to pump 100 bpd, and IF the margin were circa $37 per barrel, then one could imagine $1.35 million”

Also agreed. So very similar to my 50bopd would equate to $600k that angered Abzzba.

If it’s make Gravy less angry shall we say it might bring in $700k?

Massive rerate :)

Thanks Abzzba - it’s almost like I didn’t predict what you’d reply.

Ha I meant to type rough estimate - I’m sure rogue will cause some glee from the children!

It was a rogue estimate Abzzba. Although $32.87 sounds about right because we were told $70 oil gave us circa $40 netback. I can’t remember if that was Brent or Crude but they’re $65 and $62 respectively.

My figure assumed we get paid in full btw, not the current 70%

50bopd will equate to something like $600k a year. Every little helps but it won’t be self sufficient. If a partners doesn’t make an upfront payment they’ll be another raise next year.

Morning WOS

I still hold about £5k worth. As much as anything I reckon statistically you lot are due being semi right at least once. Hopefully it’s this week. Then i can make back some of the money I lost for not selling when you and the gang were giving the same lectures

Before the SP took a 70% drop.

@It stated in the presentation and in the last RNS that H2 would be put on production before year end if commercial. I guess that we have to go with that in the absence of any other information.”

@unnd - without wanting to overly nitpick, the RNS (which as we know isn’t something they can play as fast and loose with) didn’t say it *would*. It said if commercial

“with the aim to have the well on stream before year-end”

Given the result is expected this week, if they were going to immediately hook it up I think they’d be bolder than a year end “aim”.

I acknowledge that might sound pedantic. Experience has taught me to examine words closely.

It’s just an opinion