Member Info for Adw198

What’s the question?

I thought it had been established shorting isn’t possible here?

If it is let me know how please. Not for now, it’s more of a buy at these prices

You’ve got my name right at least Tenbag.

Wrong about there being a sales deal, wrong about £5m -£10m winter revenue, wrong about the 2025 dividend and wrong to spunk your inheritance on MATD. But as I say fair play you worked out my name. :)

Tenbag is having a full on toddler tantrum. He’s just fired off another 3 posts on Thx just because I’m invested there.

I hadn’t even posted here today until he kept calling me out.

I won’t stop giving my opinion here but I’d probably post less if I wasn’t being called out / accused of silly things.

I certainly don’t have multiple accounts. I don’t know how to short - is it even possible to short this?

If not then can someone explain what a “derampers” agenda could be?

I can only think to get a lower entry - that was certainly the accusation thrown at me when the SP was 2.50 and again when I sold at 1.81.

People ramping aka talking this up day in day out, trying to control who can talk, what can be said etc - now presumably they’re holder in which case their motives are clear and obvious - to try and get the price up. I know for a FACT there are also people paid to try and up sentiment because I caught someone connected to a company doing exactly that.

Tenbag clearly has aliases. I won’t bore the board with how and why that’s obvious unless anyone is interested.

@gord

Thanks for the reply and info.

So cash burn for H1 id thought could be taken from the following 2 snippets from the company

“The Company's cash balance at 30 June 2024 was USD 1.93 million (USD 0.77 million in cash and USD 1.16 million in Financial Assets), which compares to a cash balance of USD 8.39 million (USD 0.82 million in cash and USD 7.57 million in Financial Assets) on 30 June 2023”.

“As of 31 December 2023, the Group's cash position was $4.5 million (inclusive of Financial Assets) (31 December 2022: $5.1 million)”

I’m not an accountant or even skilled in reading accounts so perhaps simplifying but that suggested to me that the 2024 H1 cash burn was circa $2.55m.

My assumption was H2 (even aside from drilling which I’m happy to ringfence / exclude) would be more, as the activity has ramped up - especially renewables based on the raise. Even the drilling analysis will require resource and potentially money.

I suppose we don’t know exactly where the $9m raise has gone. It’s open to debate whether H1 was already funded as slightly mixed message but Gobi was definitely $1.5m. Again H2 hard to say but based on what we know it sounds like $2.5m.

That would leave $5m plus the $1m they had left = $6m.

I therefore don’t agree there’s money to last until the end of the year if the cash balance really is around the brokers estimate of $2.5m, as it appears the cash burn outside of drilling was $3.5m for H2.

New licences now to fund too.

The above is just my thinking, happy to have it explained a different way.

@gord

Where do you get the $6m cash burn (minus drilling) from? It’s broadly what I worked out, but obviously were guesstimating what H2 runrate was - presumably renewables spending went up from previous periods.

Could you also tell me about the $3.5m were gaining interest on, or direct me where to read about it please.

I’m weighing up a buy here but am nervous by (even) the broker note speculating cash was just $2.5m at year end as that would suggest an even bigger burn and more imminent need to raise.

Cheers

It’s a message board thorn - if you want to give false statement expect them to be corrected.

Similarly, your opinions are open to feedback.

I gave my view that I’m not dismissing it out of hand, just applying some context. Like Doc, I’d apply a different lens to a buy on the open market.

I’m not sure if this a(nother) one of your accidental mistakes Thorn, or if you’re deliberately trying to exaggerate but you’ve been told before it was $100k, not £100k. Or will a 20% correction be dismissed as nitpicking again?

I’m personally not “dismissing it out hand”, I’m applying some context and analysis. It’s subjective isn’t it - by all means you can tell us some people simply follow Director buys. Anyone who has done that here has at best mistimed their entry.

He’s miles underwater on his investment too. So whatever logic you want to apply to his purchase you presumably applied last June. It’s not worked out. Might it still - absolutely. But let’s looks at the specific timing, context and discount before hailing it as some nudge nudge wink wink kind of purchase.

Naivety and / or wishful thinking at its best.

@doc

“So, even if there is good news and this somehow spikes to 3p, the discount could still be brutal“

Sorry perhaps wasn’t clear - if I bought in the expectation of good news ahead of a raise then I’d sell on the good news and spike. Im not a believer of the story here until / unless they can explain how they’ll get a field full of producing wells funded. I’m also unclear what the chances of commercial success are for H3,4 5 etc after H2 issues. Genuinely not sure if H2 was just bad luck or indicative of wider problems extracting.

Getting close to a punt price for me this. Whilst I think a big raise on the cards, I also think they’ll do it on the back of some good news - and next week is the start of the month we’ve been told to expect a deal being signed. Still not sure what’s happened to the export licence but we’ll soon be finding out.

“That's the binary, I agree. My belief is that the company is being honest when it states in its RNS that sales should start in February. I also believe it more likely than not that an experienced team can get a well flowing unstimulated to flow at a higher rate and put in place standard gas pressure control equipment. H2 is also flowing albeit slowly so I'm betting that this well will come onstream early in the Spring”

Very fair commentary by Proquo there. I think a sales agreement is coming but I suspect it’ll be a bit longer before payment is received for one reason or another. And by that I mean it might be revisiting of the export licence, or most likely PC being slow to export / settle up for our oil.

H1 I’ve said repeatedly seems very likely to flow more, the sand fix sounds straightforward and cheap. Whether they can make the other changes re the pressure is less certain - this is just my opinion based on reading the RNS and listening to MBs interviews.

H2 seems less certain whether they can / will fix it. Suspect that might be linked to what the wider plan (and available funding is.

Just opinions folks!

@Doc

I’m also unaware it’s ever been used. It is a nice buffer though to be fair - I don’t know if they’d have held off the last placing for so long (down to circa $1m cash) had they not had the safety net. But most unlikely to be used for a new well. I suspect they’ll take more discounted stock in the next raise - that’s what I’d do if I was petrovis anyway.

I post too much Abzzba but I’m not a troll. I’m a former holder and you didn’t like my opinions when were mid 2s here. I shared my sell at the time to prove I was invested.

Absolutely ridiculous behaviour to threaten to post on another board every time I post here. And that’s what he’s doing.

Talk about losing the debate!

I’d much rather you didn’t post on Thor purely to disrupt it, it’s a really useful and balanced board.

If you want to head over there to discuss the investment case and give honestly held (researched) opinions that’s fine.

That Going concern statement claiming they had enough cash (based on projected income) is honestly a big red flag about the integrity of the Board here. Ultimately it’s events that will drive the price up or down here and frankly I’d rather have a board without integrity that run a brilliant company than the reverse, but it looks like we’ve neither here.

Tenbag this isn’t your telegram group.

I’ll continue to post about the company here - but I’ll try harder not to get embroiled in your childish diversions.

If you’re not interested in discussing a Going Concern statement then simply move on please.

No need to bring other shares I hold, it’s now 3-4 times you’ve brought another company into it.

Ha I’m not in the group you kicked me out like you just admitted?!

You don’t want to meet, it’s fine. If you’re going to continue to be a wrong un neither do I.

Back to the company for me, apologies to the board for getting sucked into the sideshow

i don’t know who you are on telegram, i recall your name being something to do with man u?

i certainly wouldn’t repeat what i snapped, and i hope you wouldn’t deliberately smear someone as ******, or indeed repeat the abuse you’ve given me on here.

but this is a silly distraction, a classic rabbit hole to divert from my comments on the going concern statement - on which you’ve made no comments but instead referred to name calling

@doc

The going concert statement included this statement

“It is also important to note that the Company can access loans up to $1.5 million from Petrovis under an existing loan agreement”

Clear there’s not a magic money pot from Petrovis to develop the Heron field. I suspect the $1.5m might be getting discussed given the cash flow issues not being to sell oil we’re paying to produce will be causing