Member Info for Adw198

I understand full well what you want to happen. You might even be right.

I’m entitled to disagree that the company have said they expect 800bopd from H1 and I’m allowed to think that won’t happen.

Why does someone having a different view trigger you so much?

Especially when you’ve been so wrong, so often?

In some ways I admire the resilience, but being a stubborn denier doesn’t make money on the stock market. As you’re finding out in a very painful lesson that you don’t want to learn.

@investor

“ADW is an oil extraction technical genius - you should know that fact by now“

I’m the only one to readily admit I’m not even intermediate when it comes to oil extraction in Mongolia (or elsewhere).

I read what the company says - and NOWHERE have they said 800bopd is expected as a consistent production target.

Out of interest, other than Abzzba, who is discredited, who else claims to be an expert in oil extraction - or indeed charting a single share like Investor?

You’re just a troll Tenbag, as shown by you and your aliases behaviour on another board which you’ve stated you’ll disrupt.

But yes I understand they are starting flow rates. Did you when you calculated £5m - £10m winter revenue? Talk me through the numbers, admit you lied or just stop responding to me please.

Either way my point stands - loss making company who need money to pay the bills and more money again to fund (hopefully) producing wells. Those stats from PCs field didn’t look good to me.

Not sure I follow the logic of saying we’re now a producer - the price is over half what it was. I suspect that’s because the pipe dream of X amount of oil has now been replaced with cold hard fundamental facts that production isn’t paying the bills and there’s no money to fund the expansion required to do so.

I suspect that’s why there’s all the diversionary diversification into renewables and new field pipe dreams.

Here’s some rough figures taken from a 5yr chart taking the circa lowest price in February each year - to address Investor ms latest fiction that this is just the usual range.

February 20 - 3p

February 21 - 3p

February 22 - 4p

February 23 -3p

February 24 - 3p

February 25 - 1.25p

Perfectly reasonable to argue we’re now massively undervalued and it’s a buying opportunity but let’s start with the facts - this isn’t the same old trading range. Simply not true.

“Every oiler in the world wants every well delivering at its maximum”

And I want you to answer my question as to how many achieve that. It seems we don’t always get what we want.

There’s no chance H1 will be producing 800bopd at any point is my position. You’ve described 800bopd as the expectation. We’ll see who is right - if it’s not me I’ll happily admit I was wrong.

Abzzba,I’ll try one last time - how many oilers *average* their maximum deliverability?

Abzzba - guessing you’re just informing the question about what you were referencing with 300k monthly costs.

Re H1 and your claim 800bopd was expected.

The para you highlighted said “maximum deliverability estimated to be similar to or greater than the 821 bopd achieved on drill stem testing in 2019”.

You’re a self styled industry expert so can you explain how many wells average their maximum deliverability?

Morning @gravy - I see the obsession with me and Thx is still going, whilst you can’t offer any opinions or insight here. Autistic levels of obsession. Bless!

“expectations of around 800 bbl/d”

Utter nonsense.

Agree entirely about reading what is and isn’t in an RNS. A CEOs role is to sex them up so I always bear that in mind.

As I’ve said (a few times) the central government have been lobbying for this and were described as having been very active on it 10months ago so I don’t agree its an example of “outcomes suddenly alter or or the course of events changes at a specific point because of the definitive actions that have taken place”. But happy to agree to disagree and you’re entitled to be delighted about the thing you never mentioned being resolved.

@tenbag / margarita

1. Please explain how I make a living writing on this message board?

2. I’m asking Abzzba a question about what he means by $300k monthly costs. I could tell you what I think he means and the implications of that but I’d rather let him answer first. Although I doubt he will, he’ll name call

@abzzba when discussing the cash balance you said

“End of year 2.5 million in bank, stored oil worth around 1.4 million today based on Brent price less 5%, monthly costs circa $300,000“

Perhaps I misunderstood - what monthly costs of $300k were you referring to?

Abzzba no idea what point you’re trying to make but you told we’d have $1.4m of stockpiled revenue. The company told us it was $600k and you pretended to be happy.

I’m sure you’ll tell us you’re happy with the price of oil despite calling $100 barrel a conservative price estimation.

You certainly didnt expect / project Heron to be producing 200bopd.

Nor did you expect a 1.30p SP.

But you pretend to be delighted.

Think our posts crossed there Takeoteasy but yeah that’s my main point.

We’re all entitled to our own view about things - for example you really felt this was important so you’re entitled to find the news very very positive. When people’s own expectations / projections don’t happen (eg the H1 production figures) then people should be more honest.

Another good example is the loooooonatic who projected £5m -£10m winter revenue. Given we’ll be on 10-20% of that they must be crestfallen. But no, things are better than ever apparently.

They (central government) were described as very active last April, lobbying for it then.

I take decisive to imply some form quickness. Don’t want to spend all day debating an adjective though, my main point is people who never raised it now hailing it. Personally I thought it was good news.

If they announced they’d dumped renewables tomorrow I’m sure that will be hailed as great news to allow focus on Heron. These people have told us every RNS was good news including the one that saw the price drop 35% in a day.

Abzzba did the same re H2 results. Hyped them as due every day in October and then pivoted to say no results must mean they’d already put it on production.

“I can well imagine JV partner being hesitant to sign without it being sorted first, and the drilling season now only 2-3 months away. Perhaps it was needed before they'd sign on the dotted line?“

Absolutely classic this. Imagine if I’d said 2 days ago that the lack of special category land was an issue / risk - I’d have been lynched for negativity. Thorn, like every other bull didn’t raise any concerns about it. When the news lands though it’s suddenly brilliant news and a big unblocker.

As for decisive it seems the central government have been pushing for this outcome for well over a year. It was a positive step but not an overnight instruction to the Governor. The desperation to portray everything as rosey and avoid any talk of the financial reality is quite apparent.

Yes I suppose some might be drying out bringing average production down.

It was the hit rate that concerned me more. I suppose it just needs factoring into the projected costs of getting multiple wells producing

Good find that Abzzba.

I know this will be shouted down as deramping etc but I didn’t think 311 producing wells from 589 drills was very comforting.

Each well averaging circa 70bopd.

Ouch!

Hmm

Hey Doc think you might be being too POSITIVE with this

“If MB is true to his word, we should get the offtake agreement signed and cash in the bank this month”

What he actually said was

“This is expected in February after which sales revenue will commence”

Possibly nitpicking but I’d be STAGGERED if revenue lands this month. My point isn’t that it’s only “expected” but that I expect a lag time from the signature landing to actual money landing. Surely it needs exporting aka driving to the buyer, who will then presumably have an agreed period to pay. Open to debate whether that will be paid to PC (this is my guess) or direct to us. If the former then presumably another lag to pay us. Not

In isolation a biggie but one to be mindful of given the dwindling cash.

So basically go easy on the ramping mate ;)

Oh and I did enjoy Thorns dig at people predicting the price. Other than WOS and Abzzba who did you have in mind?

Obviously like any miner there’s always some execution risk, but again every month / quarter that we tick off, the better the cash build and more we become insulated from any potential mine mishaps.

I remember being delighted at $2400 gold and working out the margin on what I expected to be an increasing AISC and here we are with a diminishing AISC and galloping POG.

All we’ve got to do is keep doing what we’re doing and even if we don’t find a cherry to go on top it’s hard not to see a rerate. And what are the chances of no good news from Segilola extension, Douta

, Sierra Leone or even Lithium.

We all know there’s still an Osun shaped elephant in the room but the confidence from the company and continued buying reassures me on that front. I suppose the lengthy time it’s taken to date could be argued either way - whilst it does appear to have dragged on of Segun had been given reason to believe there was a likely adverse finding then he surely wouldn’t have radiated such bullishness. The Osun quotes, actions and claims always seemed quite hyperbolic and frankly childish, which also gives confidence. Still the biggest risk but equally that positive news alone could significantly slingshot the SP north.