Member Info for adoubleuk

JAdam,

"Not sure if you are adoubleuk but you seem to have the knowledge to counter his arguments, are you doing so on the TLF?"

I think I may have an account on TLF under the same name I use here, but don't recall my password, and anyway prefer this place. The company's better. Also this BB has a wordcount limit, which can be a good thing! Because here, I can just pick a few things others have noticed on his stuff there, and happily dismember them. But got better things to do with my time than go through his stuff word-by-word on the same BB as he.

Suffice it to say, though, I think he's barking up the wrong tree, and also has some sort of vested interest in discrediting HUR.

MCB55,

"Having scanned dspp's diatribe I find it quite incomprehensible that he has developed a full blown PhD thesis on the basis of very limited OGA data! Good job he doesn't work for Hur!!"

He doesn't work for HUR, of that you can be sure. But also, athough at first brief glance I thought he'd written a postgrad 'thesis', it isn't so. Because on reading it as such, his tutor would throw him out, telling him to spend more time in the library and less listening to scuttlebutt from his drunken colleagues who've already landed an oilfield job.

He even mentions the old (2014 era) 'worry' of an 'overhead aquifer' !

For crying out loud...

People who listen to such stuff have completely lost the plot. There was a record-making fundraise done in 2017. Half a billion quid wasn't found via PI's nor traders. There has been SIGNIFICANT actual activity. We oil-people might consider supply-boats, anchor-handlers, and drilling-rigs to be just 'big boys' toys', but they're not really playthings at all. Big stuff. Lots of crew, and the work is risky. A 'small' FPSO. But which makes a cross-channel ferry look like a bathtub duck. Tankers coming and going, taking average loads of 400,000 bbl crude to market. The offloads being done in the WoS winter.

Dspp's little scribbles are just Plato sitting next to Socrates. No, less than that, because the conclusions he's drawing from the diatribe (and then presented in monologue form) are severely flawn, and get the details just wrong.

OK. After supper I went back out for a 'digestif' at a late-night cafe (even though this is not 'late' in my terms), found I could access Dspp's latest on The Lemon via my phone, started getting annoyed, ordered another drink (to keep me calm) and am now back home.

Forget what I said about his post being a 'doctoral thesis'. Let's instead downgrade it to something just postgraduate, and the guy's trying to make a name for himself. Because I know dam certain that when he talks about 'his experience' in the oilfield, he's nevertheless someone who couldn't tell from ten yards which manufacturer two different brand-new drillbits were made by which manufacturer they were made by, just by the paintjob. But the 'experienced' people can.

The most telling thing in his post was this.

" I am unsure (because I have not waded through old reports) if a PLT was conducted in either of these wells during the DST – does anyone know ? "

The answer is, yes, they were. But if your research is so shallow as to having missed out on this...........?????

Also, are your ears on, Dspp? Do you sometimes look at this BB? Yes, I know dam well you do.

"... we can think of the primary inflow point for each well as being approximately the intersection of a barefoot well about 6” in diameter, and a fracture set of about 6” equivalent diameter, at these two separated points..."

Just about a month ago, in a previous TLF post you were unsure whether the horizontals were 'barefoot', and (here) I assured you they were. Nice to see you took my word for it as fact, which it is. But here's another FACT. The horizontals are drilled with an 8-1/12" bit and assembly, not 6". So once again, you've just gone and shot yourself in the foot for not having done some really basic research. So how can anyone take the rest of your stuff seriously?

I started getting really annoyed when I read

" so what has been done so far is for each well to mobilise the ‘easy’ element of the gross liquids from within the fractures in an area of rock that is about 1,000,000 m2 in extent and 50m deep. If it were square that would be conveniently 1-km x 1-km x 50m. Or a circle of diameter 1,128m / radius 564m. "

... which is essentially just a rewrite of something I posted here about a month ago regarding the aerial (cubic) volume around the two wellbore 'heels', though in text you take spherical, despite in your piccy you show a cubic shape.

Beware plagiarism, young man.

And I advise you to do deeper research before digging yourself deeper. 6" horizontals? 8-1-2" bit. So average at least 9" hole diameter, given the rock being drilled. It won't be 'gunbarrel'. And in hardrock FB 'barefoot', so what?

I don't knoz who's paying you as an intern to do a hatchet-job on HUR, but remember, it could backfire on you.

Spedders,

" HUR say that both Wells 6 &7Z are drawing from close to the 'heel' where the well goes horizontal, not from the toe. I may be totally wrong of course."

No, you're correct, that's what they're saying. They infer that most of the production is (so far) just coming from the first 50-60m beyond the heel. HOW the draw this inference I don't know, but they're the people with the details, not me, so won't try to guess.

Longwait,

"We're left speechless by your selflessness, Double."

You flatter me, but I fear you have quite misunderstood my motives for draining my beer with unseemly speed. It was not with the intention of studiously poring over Dspp's screed and then tearing it to bits for the benefit of you others. I'll leave the philanthropy to 'drillordrop' for now. No, it was purely selfish, because I felt in need of a good laugh.

However, I've seen it will take more time than I thought to study.

Must admit that I noticed with interest though that some other posters on that site have already commented on the obvious work involved (writing and making graphs), and finding it strange that someone who professes to be invested goes to such lengths casting doubt on the project.

Mario,

"It looks like dspp has gone into overdrive on TLF in his continuing attempts to promote his theory about water and denigrate the company in which he professes to still hold shares. "

GFG. 'Overdrive'? Warp factor three, more like.

I whizzed back home to have a proper keyboard to write on so there weren't too many typos in my reply to that 'drillordrop' clown. But also to access TLF and Dspp's latest. Which I've now done, sort of.

Hey, some people here accuse me of being too prolix and longwinded, but at least LSE has a wordcount limit so I can't get out of hand! But TLF has no such strictures, and it seems our water-cut expert has just posted a doctoral thesis on there.

Reckon I'll go out again (to a different cafe, to drink something stronger, and say hello to other people), before coming back, having a light supper, and then getting down into his post and the unpretty pictures he's provided. Because it'll obviously take some time. But hopefully keep me away from the TV news which contains a bunch of bad stuff, but which unfortunately is mostly based on facts.

Rc_2020,

Sorry, but 'ronok' admits to being somethin of layman in the matter, and I'm sorry to say he hasn't fully 'got it', and you're wrong in saying he has.

Sure, the pressure 'drive' for Lancaster is the aquifer. But pressure transmission doesn't work like he's implying. A certain amount of oil fowing out in no way means þhat an equal amout of water is moving 'in' and upwards.

I suggest you read some basic hydraulic mechanics, such as how the braking system on a car works. The cylinder attached to the brake pedal you push is small, and the amount of fluid 'moved' is small. But the resulting force is great. Your right foot is not exerting the same energy as that which is slowing the car.

Or think about sound transmission through air. Someone claps his hands one side of a field, you hear it from the other. But the air molecules between his hands have only moved towards you infintessimally.

On phone, so please excuse brevity and possible typos.

JB,

Look at references there (and also here) to RKH, etc...

jasond,

" but unless we know that November's production of 8,318 bopd all came from 7z, I don't see that we can open the champagne on that issue just yet."

Well you're a miserable SOB, aren't you? A well producing 8,318 bopd on the UKOS isn't good enough for you? I don't have any supporting data, but I doubt there's very much comparable anywhere WoS or in the N.Sea, right now.

This is why I consider this whole 'water-cut' stuff to be a whole bunch of b*lls and misinformation, and some people have fallen for it hook line and sinker for the simple reason that they've taken their eye off the ball.

Not long ago, it was Christmas, a time when traditionally Brussels Sprouts become part of the menu for the feast.

I read an interesting article in the FT about Brussels Sprouts, and what the weather was doing to the harvest. And don't kid yourselves, such is the tonnage of Brussels Sprouts sold over Christmas, it's not all about people on their allotments, it's a f88king agricultural industry.

Now being an 'industry', that involves investment of money, teking on labour, the whole nine yards. Because the people delivering sprouts to market aren't interested in people having a nice Xmas dinner, but instead recouping all the hard work and money, and thus maybe having a good Christmas themselves.

What's the important thing for them?

How many sprouts they can produce per acre, something like that. How many sprouts can be grown 'per stalk'.

What aren't they interested in, unless it affects their yield? How high the individual stalks grow, and how many leaves might be on 'em. Because you can't sell Brussels Sprout stalks nor leaves. Maybe they can be mulched-up and returned to the ground, but the stalks and leaves are essentially a waste product. And the cost of mulching 'em up and recycling them is usually peanuts compared with the profits the sprouts make at market.

This is the point these effin' idiots banging on about 'water-cut' seem to be missing. They're worried about the waste that goes over the side of the boat, essentially not adding to overheads at all, because the machinery for that is an integral part of the production-train, while forgetting to count the number of pumpkins being loaded onto the truck.

Longwait,

Your quote from Indy's post;

"The big boys are getting out and the shorters are circling. 60% drop in 2 months is not normal, not even for AIM. "

The shorters are 'CIRCLING'????????

That's a laugh. The shorters are vulture-like down at ground level now, enjoying a feast of carrion.

But some day they'll have finished, and will have to return to the trees and wait for more potential food to come to the watering hole.

TLF

And independent AIM-listed Oil company whose shares are currently running around 17.5p 'blocklisted' 500,000 new shares on the 28th. Resulting in a 4.5% increase in their SP.

I'm not saying whom, DYOR. But the company (UK based) has debt, is desperately in need of actual production, and so on.

And I know for a fact that one of the 'unbiased' commentators on one of the internet 'share sites' has a strong interest in them, and has been disparaging towards HUR of late. Feeding fuel to the fire.

Maybe I'm adding two and two and getting three. But I'm getting an instinctive sort of 'warm' feeling, the same as when I'm on the 'button', someone has raised before me, someone else has re-raised, and I look at my hand to find I'm holding the aces... 'Cos I know things are about to get very interesting.

DYOR, as I said, and I could be quite wrong. But summat's afoot. Might be worthwhile keeping an eye on TLH as well.

Longwait,

"I would say that Mr Ashcroft could not have done a better job of putting people off investing in HUR. I wonder why he did it."

a He's paid to do so.
b Obviously, In order for his article to 'pass muster' ( and he getting paid), it has to agree with whoever is paying him wants to publish.

The question is more, who's paying whom?

(And if you believe all those 'disclaimers' that such commentators don't hold positions in the companies they comment about, you're in tooth-fairy land.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goDYPFPswc4

tindrumgambler,

I beg to differ from your opinion. Intra-corporate discussions have nothing to do (in a legal sense) with 'commercial' issues, which involves the product and its current marketing.

Furthermore, Dr Trice could be having dinner with Mr Looney, the Pope, or the POTUS, and not be obliged to RNS about it.

Longwait,

"I've previously made the same point as yours about FFD, Double."

Sorry. Your post went a bit unnoticed in the blizzard of them, coinciding we me coming in from the rain and hitting the keyboard.

But yes, let's mutually underline it!

FFD is of course the longterm, forward, preferable and logical plan. Even though it'll cost a lot of money and investment. But until a good deal is struck, the Lancaster EPS phase can continue, with a few more wells drilled, and still be profitable!

JB,

"Is this what A.Stobie meant by an 'Interruption' at the last CMD?"

What the devil are you doing posting at 16:30 or thereabouts? Can't sleep?

Anyway, you're repeating what I said a couple of days ago.

But yes, I do wonder about that.

There may not be any 'subsurface, operational, or commercial reasons the company is aware of' (see RNS)' to explain the current SP'.

What is glaringly absent from that phrase is something like 'corporate development discussions with other companies'.

DC,

""Vessel Skandi hera multi purpose Aberdeen this evg now left stavanger on its way"
She is now about 25 miles from Aberdeen.
When she leaves we will see what destination is declared."

Nice to see a few people are keeping an eye on the basics!

If she's been taken on for anchor pre-lay, it'll be interesting to see where it is.

princeofdarkness,

" I’ve held for some time here and think that someone’s got a huge buy order to be filled and no better way to do that than crash the SP. "

Hmm. Yes, maybe. But that assumes (conversely) that enough shares can be 'made available for sale' at a low price.

I still wonder about that odd 'peak' around 60p in October 2018, for nor real reason. (Though not the one in July last year, on the back of FoiL)

One or two posters here are beginning to mention a takeover again. And as you say , this would be an admirable situation for someone to try to launch a hostile one at a bargain price.

The question remains who? (If that's the case.) And why?

Someone earlier on (lots of posts today!) drew our attention to the rapid-fire nature of yesterday's trades. Obviously algo-driven, but not everyone's got access nor use of such systems. Certainly not the panicking PI! Instead, it's got to be someone big, or with a lot of clout.

Time for a few conspiracy theories to be bounced around here a bit I think, if only to lighten the tone!

Who doesn't have to report their holdings via TR1 pdq? Well, the Yanks, for starters, and there's significant US investment. Not (of course) in the name of oil companies, but financial houses. These people talk to each other. How about the Chinese? Not impossible, neither, and their phone lines are full of stuff like the new 'flu, so working the market unseen in the background would go unnoticed. Or maybe it's the Russians, just poking spokes into our wheels, which is something they're good at, 'cos if it doesn't cause us to fall off our bike, it makes people nervous.

One thing's for sure. Today and yesterday's volumes just cannot be put down to PI action. Someone or some organisation is taking a concerted 'run' at this share, and making a lot of money out of it. And they're not just the little 'naked trader' doing business in his kitchen.

By the way. That stupid SXX /HUR article on 'proactive'. OF COURSE the guy got paid for it. It's quite silly, of course. Because FFD notwithstanding, Hurricane could completely change track, drill a couple more wells, keep the FPSO nicely producing away and 'debottleneck' things (upping production yet more) and still end up in profit. FFD is the logical idea to keep the UK somewhat 'energy independent' to a slight extent, but HUR's survival doesn't depend on it.

I think we'll soon see less of the Dssp's around on these BB's, fearmongering, driving rabbits onto the road to become wild-eyed and flattened. Personally, I'll stay in the ditch (where it's a bit damp and cold and lonely right now) like a sensible badger, just watching the traffic go past.

Wish I had enough cash right now to do a top-up, but I haven't.

JAdam,

"So Hur is the next Sirius apparently? What complete and utter rubbish. The guy who wrote this needs calling out and publicly shaming for a pathetic attempt to deramp this company"

There is one HUGE difference between HUR's project and SXX. That being the product. Hurricane is searching for oil, finding it, and now producing and selling it at market price, admittedly in small quantities relative to potential FFD production. The market exists, and electric cars or no, will continue to exist for decades to come. Whereas it's uncertain whether a market actually exists for the particular form of fertilizer Sirius hopes to mine, or at least in the quantities necessary for them to even cover the extraction costs.