Member Info for adoubleuk

Longwait,

Or Bear / Trice?

(Written in a bar with an apéro in front of me before going to eat, so maybe just my imagination running away with me. To quote the Rolling Stones.)

Longwait,

I didn't see the post, but if the poster's pseudo was indeed BeartriceTomson, what makes you assume they're female? Re-read it closely!

A further indication that HUR is being deliberately 'played with' by unscrupulous traders, in my opinion.

Oh dear, I can't help writing a bit more, while on the computor and before having supper. Because just been re-reading my post to see how many typos I made, and just spotted something which made me laugh out loud. I was stupid not to have noticed it before.

Dspp's quote, re-quoted:

"There might be room to squeeze through the middle if the wells aren't quite working perfectly / but haven't dropped off too much"

Haven't 'dropped off too much ?????????????

Sh**. From RNS, they're being opened up to greater production as of just before the end of January, and without news stating otherwise, still under natural flow, though they may be playing with the ESP's by now, we don't know.

Plus (however) we DO know that just the two wells are capable of exceeding the FPSO's throughput capacity until 'debottlenecking' and WOSP tie-in.

'Dropping off'? Maybe Dspp's referring to himself and the perch someone's put him on.

A few months ago, our major shareholder Kerogen sold a significant number of their holding, an action which some people think was responsible for the start of the slide in the SP. This essentially recouped a large part of their initial investment, putting them almost on a 'freeride'. Since then, the SP has gone a lot lower. Because not doubt the shares they sold went via various brokers into the hands of some so-called 'II's' who've proceeded to short the things, as many here have suggested. ie through borrowing the shares on tick, not actually buying them to start with. Or maybe just buying a nominal quantity, just for appearances' sake.

Now then, here's an imaginary idea to ponder, which occurred to me this morning.

WHAT IF sometime soon, let's say towards March 15th, prior to the financials being published, Kerogen put in a 'buy' order to their brokers, for the same amount of shares they'd sold, and promising to outbid anyone else?

It would be a rout. The SP would soar. And the shorters would get wiped out. Bankrupted. Nicely in time for CMD and the new drilling campaign.

OK, I'm a drilling person, not a 'stockmarket' animal. So shoot me down. But just hypothetically, is that impossible?

I still can't help thinking about Alistair Stobie's cryptic comment at last year's CMD about a possible 'interruption', and wondering if he wasn't referring to the present SP situation in some way. Sure, there may be no 'material' reason (commercial, subsurface or production) for the SP to be where it is, but a rather more canny reason may be playing the stockmarket at its own game.

SG2,

" Get a grip and stop implying Dr Trice is a liar, you tlf dudes."

Heartily agree. As he seems to have stopped posting here, here's a bit of latest from dspp over there.

"There might be room to squeeze through the middle if the wells aren't quite working perfectly / but haven't dropped off too much, and where more time is required to figure out just how best to develop the reservoir. "

Lots of negative innuendo, isn't there?

Personally I reckon the best way to develop the reservoir is to get a couple of production wells via an EPS, 'play around with them' to not only acquire valuable data but also make some significant cashflow, and then progress things from there.

Oh but hang about, that's just what the company's already doing, and always said they'd do, isn't it? Sorry, I'd forgotten.

(Btw, I took that quote out of context, in that recently dspp has put on a different hat, that of a semi-qualified 'Fractured Basement Expert' having been discarded and one more suitable for a semi-qualified 'Convertable Bonds Expert' now on his head.)

As you yourself said earlier,

"when do wells work 'perfectly' ffs??'

Unless it's some sort of anagram. Because they seem to be 'working perfectly well' so far, assuming the RNS's aren't full of lies and the tankers full of water.

Laserdisc,

It's just occurred to me before going to bed that the PBLJ isn't self-propelled. It needs tugs to get itself from Norway to WoS.

You're the fastest kid on the block to get wind of such things, so hope you'll give us the heads-up when the relevent vessels have been ordered.

Thanks in advance! ;-)

(cont)

....More accurate. Imperial remains more 'human sized'. Hey! It even applies here, with Hurricane. Just look at some of the tech presentations. (Dspp take note, when you're rabbiting nonsense about watercut.) 'Drawdown pressures'? Quoted in psi. Well depths? Metres.

One sight of Nicola Sturgeon on the TV makes me want to run a mile. A kilometre isn't enough. Is the traffic in the Euston road just 'centimetering along'? No way. Try inches.

Metric is good for measuring things like the speed of light, but not much else.

'Vive l'Imperiale'! (Except literally translated, that means 'long live the double-decker bus'.)

shedful,

"Though i wish you hadnt interchanged between metric and imperial. Though luckily or not i am of an age where i can occasionlay converse in both"

Sorry 'bout that!

But I was writing about sort of vague things. A 100x100x100 ft 'cube' of fractured basement is a pretty stupid sort of idea anyway, ,cos if you tried to cut a cube of such stuff out of a mountain on the Isle of Lewis, for example, it'd almost certainly fall apart, anyway, before you'd even managed such a task! (Thus partly proving my point.) And I just used metric for 'fracture width' because those were the units Mario used. And of course no fracture is a nice uniform 20cm wide, however you cut the cake.

For strictly oilfield calcs, I always (still) use imperial with some weird USA offshoots. Psi, feet, inches, bbl, etc. Give me depth of the hole (TVD) of a well that's taken a kick, drillpipe pressure when shut-in (in psi), mud density (in an arcane unit of 'pounds per gallon) in use, and within 30 seconds using a simple calculator like that on my phone, I can tell you by how much the mud weight should be increased to 'kill' the well. Tell me the size of your drillpipe (in inches, inside and outside diameter), inside diameter of the casing, plus depths (in feet), depth in feet of the open-hole section (inches), and within a few minutes (with the same calculator) I can give a total fluid volume in the hole within 0.5% accuracy. How about your mudpumps? Tell me the stroke length and liner size (again in inches), and I can tell you how many pump strokes it'll take to 'circulate out' the kick, even though that'll take a few more minutes). Of course there are tables or software which can give you such data, but in a race I could probably do it almost as quick. It's ingrained.

But the oilfield isn't the same the world over, and some horrible 'mismatches' often occur. For instance, in terms of pressure, other than psi, you've got bar, or kilopascals. Then, I have to start looking for conversion-tables. And volumes? Casing diameters measured in inches (still the industry norm), but depth in metres? OK, no big deal about the metres. Multiply by 3.281. I know that by heart. There are 6.29 bbl in a cubic metre. But hang on, no mudpump manufacturer sells a cylinder liner measured in centimetres: they're still in inches.

Going back to 'well-control'. Pressure relationship to depth is an important part of your calculations. But psi per metre? Literally, I've seen that!

OK, I'll stop blowing my own trumpet for a moment. But at least in oilwell drilling terms, metric is hopeless. A metre is too long a unit, a centimetre too short as a sub-multiple. You can't see a one-litre 'gas kick', but a cubic metre and you may already be in big trouble. And kiloPascals? Stupid.

Oh yeak, how do you measure drillpipe? Not in feet and inches, but feet and 'oilfield inches' which are 1/10th of a foot, and 1/10th of an 'inch'. 1/1oth of an oilfield inch is half a centimetre. More

DC,

"Skandi Hera declared Lancaster as her destination and as I remember there was no AIS reception to allow plotting of her actual course."

Oh yes, so it was. Not Lincoln. But she was out of AIS (unless one pays for satellite), so couldn't track movements.

Out of curiosity, I've taken some time to look at some other BB's. ADVFN seems to have been taken over (partly) by layabouts who had a disappointing St Valentine's day, I don't even bother with ii, so went to the Lemon. And saw that other than the usual suspects, there are some familiar names cropping up there.

One of those being our friend WessexMario, who is someone I genuinely consider to be a 'friend'.

And I hope he won't be annoyed with me for doing this, but I want to quote a part of one of his posts here, written in discussion with Dspp.

"The well drawing the higher water cut has intersected an area of shattered rock, where there is good permeability but due to the smaller particle and open fracture size, it has a much lower porosity. "

I'm surprised that Dspp didn't immediately jump on this, but it was probably because it plays into his own arguments< But forgive me, Mario, but I'm sorry, you're wrong.

ALL of the 'Fractured Basement' is 'shattered rock', to a greater or lesser extent. And none of that rock is porous as such. Though when one takes a 'cubic block' of it, it possesses a 'pseudo-porosity', that being the spaces between the individual pieces of rubble.

So far, we're on the same page.

A quick 'sidetrack' to shale oil, and hydraulic fracturing, which is just an artificial way of achieving the sort of effect that FB has naturally. In the some circles, the success or not of a frac job is measured in 'amount of rubbleisation' achieved. An ugly sort of term, and awkward, but essentially meaning whether you've used a big enough hammer and broken the rock up enough to allow oil to flow. Which in shale, it would have done anyway, but not fast enough to be commercial.

Now in FB, the amount of 'shattering' certainly effects 'pseudo-porisity'. The more shattered (or fractured) the rock is, the greater the 'porosity'.

However, within certain limits, the pseudo-porisity related to rock particle size is not inversely proportional to permeability, in other words the ease with which oil can flow through the entire matrix. As a rough mental image, try a 100x100x100 foot cube of granite, with a few fractures about 20cm wide spread through it, containing oil under pressure. Now imagine a similar cube, really 'shattered', with the same amount of oil contained. Which will flow the more 'easily'?

Hmm. Hard to tell. But there's no reson to believe it'll be the first example. Greater 'shattering' doesn't necessarily mean lower overall permiability within such a block. Even if it's less than in a block 10x10x10. The only way to find out is empirically, through experiment. Which is exactly what the EPS is about.

I know where you're coming from: the possible 'infill and shakedown factor' which might have a bearing on the WD result. But the two things aren't the same.

I understand you using LF because the wordcount allowance is greater, Mario, but it's the sort of thing worth airing here, as well! ;-)

JoeSoap,

"Did you miss the recent Skandi Hera trip to LC? "

Nope. ( I get by with a little help from my friends, so got the heads-up!)

Trouble is, with no specific info, impossible to guess what that little operation was about.

Was it paid for by Hurricane or Spirit? I dunno. But find it remarkable the way these two poorboy outfits busy heading for the knacker's yard can afford to hire vessels like that (which don't come cheap) on a whim.

Of course, it might have been the directors doing a sort of downmarket version of Sir Peter Green's various cruises, just to rip off the investors, as some BB posters would like to have us believe. Maybe they'd taken some Germans with them to show where the water they sell them comes from.

laserdisc,

Thanks for PM and link. Back in business!

" Looks like Lincoln 1st"

Yup. But 'purpose unknown' for now. Maybe not P&A, but simply gauge retrieval / replacement? (???) Summat quick an'dirty, either way, given the break in the contract indicated by TO.

Almost certainly on Spirit's tab, not ours.

DC,

"Check out the destination set by Jasmine Knutsen presently off Lerwick."

Definitely a joker on board! That vessel's been leading us astray for a while!

(Hope Dspp & co are reading this. Because of course they'll have an explanation. Like maybe the JK has been doing clandestine trips to the AM with their AIS turned off, to offload water and take it to Scapa flow, for sale to Orkney farmers who are no doubt going to buy it, their land lacking in such stuff.)

haggis_trap,

"Have a friend on inside who gave me little nod and wink about this ;-) However cant say much more for fear of releasing something I shouldn't."

However, one doesn't have to be 'close to the inside' to come to exactly the same conclusions.

" Contact believes that Hurricane remain confident longer term - recent drills on Warwick being viewed as technical challenges to unlock the puzzle rather than absolute show stoppers."

Which (again apologies to your contact) is pretty much stating the bleedin' obvious, and also what the company themselves have been saying via RNS for a while now. There's a problem though in that some people for some unknown reason prefer to listen to daft rumours rather than properly read RNS's, somehow forgetting that if a company releases an RNS containing false information, it's breaking the law and the BoD responsible could go to jail.

Of course, it plays into the pockets of some unscrupulous people to post misleading stuff scattergun on all sorts of media, under pseudos like Dspp (conspiracy-theorist) or Drillordrop (effin' loony), ot all sorts of folk talking about financial 'charts' which can be changed at whim according to which way the wind is blowing.

People seem to sometimes forget that during last year's JV campaign, the disappointing Warwick Deep well was pure 'exploration': the first well drilled on that structure. Warwick West was ambiguous, but tested well, and certainly never called 'non-commercial' by anyone, despite being PA'd. And Lincoln an obvious success.

That's not bad for just one year. Compare it with the years that Hurricane's been drilling in the general area. And the success rate. It's taken a long time to 'unlock' just Lancaster alone.

'Show stopper'? Anyone promulgating such ideas is trying to mislead, for their own profit. It's like the Emperor's new clothes story in reverse. They're trying to make you 'open your eyes' and say that the emperor's naked, when in fact he isn't, and his robes are actually rather good.

The show's only just getting going. Those tankerloads don't lie. And they're NOT carrying water! :-)

laser,

Thanks again. Will go check DECC. But due to a computer going t**ts-up not sure if I've still got the bookmark. Don't have it on this one. I'll look on another, in case, but could you PM me with the link again, please?

laser,

"the rig is presently with
https://westcon.no/yards/en/our-yards-and-facilities/olen/
Norway"

Jeez. So she is. I just checked 'current position', saw her in some sort of bay, and thought it was Invergorden! But of course it isn't.

I slink to the back of the 'diligent shipwatchers' class, quietly. Or maybe I'll just wander down to the river and throw myself in...

Red faced? Yup.

Cap't Swag,

"An rns would certainly put the cat among the pigeons.. Fingers crossed"

As mentioned earlier. I see no way an RNS CAN'T be issued soon regarding what's happening with the rig. It's been public knowledge issued by the company that the PBLJ will be taken up this month. TO have just confirmed it. Obviously, what with the weather, and the change in tactics regarding GWA, the thing might not even weigh anchor for the next few weeks. But it seems to me incumbent on the company to let shareholders know what actually will be happening. Because it's price-related. Rig hire / opex is an outgoing expenditure.

Plus it occurs to me that an RNS about the rig relatively soon would obviate any need to explain it all over again at the CMD. Or at least not at length.

'Cat amongst the pigeons'? Yes, quite possibly. A company about to go broke as the 'doomsters' like to say here doesn't suddenly go and EXTEND the duration of its upcoming rig useage.

Bring on the cat. Hope it's hungry. Time to get those pigeons panicking.

laserdisc'

More.

You quoted this:

"6th FEB RNS
from last rns
A rig contract is being negotiated in order to be able to drill and test a production well on the Lancaster licence ("Lancaster -8 Well") during Q2 / Q3 2020"

This, on reflection, is interesting, and might give rise to some speculation and rumour here over the weekend!

The Fleet Status Report still shows PLJ commencing contract this month. Which is of course Q1. The rig's currently at Invergordon, moored close-in, not out in the Firth. (Anyone close by, to do some 'spying'?) And of course with the storm coming in, she's going nowhere right now.

Then in the contract, there's a 'break', March - April.

So I reckon that other than force majeur weather stuff, any residual Q1 charges are quite possibly being picked up by Spirit.

OK, fast forward to April, which is Q2. And the implication is that the first well will be Lancaster-8. Whoopee! Unless OGA screws the pooch and doesn't agree to the suspension extention on Lincoln. But I just don't see that happening: keeping Lincoln 'on the map' with its downhole gauges to see what read-across there may be while drilling the two delineation wells makes complete sense, and it would be criminal on the part of OGA to prevent that.

But what about the October 'extension'? Where will that be? It'd be nice to think Halifax, but again, that's getting into the winter, and planning a well including a DST might be a bit rash for that time of year. So maybe just a quick poke at some unspecified place somewhere up the ridge between Lancaster and Halifax? I won't even try to guess.

But it'll be good to have some 'shipwatching' to do once more...

laser,

Tks for the update! I've looked at the TO fleet status report from time to time, but it hadn't been recently released so you got there first.

The 'extension' is interesting: obviously there's going to be quite a bit of rig-related activity for HUR this year.

Just another two or three things I found interesting. Two one-month breaks in the contract: planned maintenence / regulatory recertification, or what? Contract is still marked as beginning this month, so definitely there should be an RNS about this soon.

Also although the HUR dayrate isn't stated, the current dayrate is, and it's the lowest of any of the TO rigs in the PLJ's class. But again, she's the oldest, so maybe not surprising.

DC,

"He/She/it has an agenda and he/she/it has started post 5.00pm today knowing that nothing will get taken down till Monday."

That's not 100% true. I've seen posts deleted on a Saturday, as well. Mind you, that might have been by a moderator whose train was so late on the Friday that they didn't get into the office until 03:37 the next day, so decided to do some work before hitch-hiking home.