Member Info for adoubleuk

proverloop,

"Just a thought for all the UKOG contributors who've been speaking crap on here this last while back, we know where the produced water goes from Lancaster & any other offshore installation (if you care to read my previous posts) but on land rigs, is it taken away in tankers ? "

The answer is 'yes' ! When referring to 'standalone' wells such as UKOG's. In more mature and developed onshore fields such as Wytch Farm and Humbly Grove, produced water (at quite significant percentages these days) is reinjected into the reservoir, not just for disposal purposes, but also being 'conventional', water injection props up reservoir pressure.

JF,

(See the nightshift's at it again!)

"That is where PI's are kept in the dark until too late to act, is it not?"

(Plus your bit about 'transparency')

So far, I think that in 'operational' terms, the company has been very 'transparent' regarding reporting, especially over the last 18 months or so. Heck, they even 'fessed-up about the FPSO 'rope saga' fairly quick! (Less than a year ago. Remember that?)

Now? An RNS in December (just six weeks ago) saying all is OK.

Followed by a blizzard of BB posts and on other media, claiming things are not OK. Despite a couple of tankerloads of oil offloaded, the chief perpetrator of such rumours still not admitting that he's wrong about the December one.

And the SP taking a nosedive, and continuing to do so.

I refuse to believe that any of the latter has anything to do with operational matters or financial difficulties within the company, because were that the case I do believe that they'd have been reported via RNS through legal obligation. I also don't think that the current rout in the SP comes through 'insider information' regarding operations, such as I wonder might not have been the case before the WD result was released.

So if it's not to do with operations, one has to look elsewhere. But getting access to what's discussed on the nthieme floor of some tower in The City is difficult. (As is getting beyond the front desk in Lower Eashing, though I recommend the pub next door for finding out which way the wind is blowing!)

Summat's certainly up, but we'll only find out what it is when we find out. Personally I think we're in the middle of the 'interruption' which the CFO mysteriously alluded to at the CMD... Even if trade hasn't been actually suspended yet.

Wellwell,

"Right now any theory is a good theory!"

I wasn't proposing that idea as anything as solid as a theory, nor even as a tenuous hypothesis. Just one of those notions that may occur through pale fawn fluff at three in the morning. Something maybe happening as a fact in some parallel universe...

But not impossible. I agree with others that the lack of a company response to this SP drop is 'interesting' in the light of their rapid November response to a share rise, but the lack of an 'operational update' indicates to me that operationally there's nothing new to report, and things are more or less on track.

So instead, I think it's reasonable to think that something else is happening at high (corporate) levels, but about which it would be inappropriate to report at present. And that 'the City' has got wind of this, and is determinedly driving the SP low in order to make a huge profit a bit later on...

Of course, that might be wishful thinking.

JF,

"I am sure that would be the case, but what if they were to sell and then buy back?"

Yeah, but what if the people who bought weren't selling?

Never forget the possible USA interest.

JF,

"God, LF are on full alert tonight!"

So they are! Dspp qualifying his previous posts yet more, dissociating himself from anything he's written (at least in proffessional terms), and a surprise appearance by our old friend Pijoe.

Some serious backpedalling happening. Maybe because it's backfired on them, as well.

What fun.

JockJoy,

"When you see how Allied Minds, Equals Gp, and De laRue are (NOT) performing for CA, and the urgent need to unwind Woodford positions, I strongly suspect that this could be a significant reason behind the current HUR SP malaise."

I don't think that makes sense. If CA were selling out at ever-decreasing prices, most people would clap their hands!

Albi1

"Firstly I have to say I realised you may not like being addressed as Aduk. I actually sound this out as A D U K not 'a duck' . Having tried ADouble recently it just didn't scan right so I'm going back to Aduk unless it is annoying in which case I shall get over my scanning issues!"

Call me whatever you want, so long as you don't call me late for dinner!

Donscot,

I find your posts today possibly the best, especially as you appear to be a rare contributor to the BB.

Because thee SP is certainly a bit distressing, and I'm pretty much for the first time facing a 'paper loss' here, though it won't cause me lost sleep.

Though it might cause me difficulties getting to sleep, because there's something happening that I now don't understand. Sure, the markets everywhere are getting hurt because the Chinese choose to eat snakes. But really, that's not enough to explain an 8% hit on HUR and us riding the snake rather than climbing the ladder.

Some other posters have made some good points. For instance, why did the company issue an RNS to 'quash rumour' on a rising SP but being quiet now? That strikes me as curious. Especially given that the company has explicitly stated that if any 'fundamentals' regarding the Lancaster EPS were seen to have changed (and thus the entire Lancaster evaluation), we'd be notified. Which hasn't happened.

Others talk about 'takeover', usually a classic ploy for traders wanting to 'ramp' a share for their own profit. But now? Hmm. If a takeover is on the cards, it's in the interest of the takeoveree that the SP be as low as possible, and 'desperate' shareholders more likely to agree?

Just for fun (digressing a bit), here's an imaginary scenario for you all to mull over, and maybe laugh about, because it's something of my own invention, just now.

HUR has a partner called Spirit, who's bought into work mainly on GWA, but are privvy to all the details of the results. Spirit are not publicly owned, but Centrica, a co-owner, wants to sell off their share in them. And Centrica are a major 'strategic' domestic energy-provider to the UK. BP is currently buying and marketing Hurricane's oil from Lancaster, which all the way up the ridge to Halifax represents possibly HUGE resources. Neither Spirit nor Hurricane can possibly finance FFD of GLA or GWA themselves. But BP maybe could, and it's on their backdoorstep.

Let's not forget that BP and Shell have together 'coralled' all licences around GLA, except those grabbed by Spark, who are a dark horse.

So how about maybe Spirit doing a 'takeover' of HUR? At a rock-bottom price, when the SP is bumping around at near record lows? The Mcap was once about 1.8 billion, now around 500 million.

So could Spirit offer 53p a share, which would probably make everyone including the bondholders happy? Might require some backdoor City shenanigans, but not impossible. And then the next day, BP pipe up and say they'd bought Spirit?

Never trust an oilman...

Jockbob11,

Nice of you to post that link, but it relates entirely to 'conventional' reservoirs, not Fractured Basement.

jointhedots,

Writing fro my phone once more so can't get a quote off your 10:15 post. But for (factual) info, Mr Stobie is NOT 'Commercial Director, and nor is he responsoble for IR.

I suggest you check such stuff before yor next doom-laden post, otherwise the joke's on you.

cat5,

"Is that to say that the gauges are set along the length of the drill hole?"

This is highly unlikely. The horizontal sections are 'barefoot' and not lined nor cased. Leaving gauges along such open hole which could transmit data individually (how?) isn't any bit of technology I know of.

Though I don't know everything, and could be wrong about that, though suspect I'm not.

I've preferred to keep away from this discussion about 'how the company knows', but I do suggest it's worth looking very closely again at the 12 December RNS and its wording.

" Data gathered thus far indicates immediate and strong pressure communication between the wells, suggesting that together they act as a single well."

Note word 'suggests'. Not engraved in stone nor expressed as fact.

" Furthermore, the Company believes that only approximately 50-60 metres of each 1 kilometre wellbore is contributing to production."

Note the word 'believes', in much the same way.

" Both wells are currently drawing on only a small section of the reservoir."

This last phrase is however presented as a statement of fact. As to exactly HOW the company has reached such a conclusion, I wouldn't personally like to comment, because I don't have such knowledge. Maybe SonoftheBull would like to expand on this, but I doubt somehow that he will.

Cebo,

No, the bacteria aren't loaded onto tankers with the oil. They would make the crude go 'off'. Instead they're filtered out, dehydrated, and compressed into blocks about the size of housebricks. These are then backloaded in containers (secretly of course) and exported to cold places like Finland, where they are sold as firelighters.

BlooBird,

"When the first samples are taken from a well, do they test for any new type of previously unknown bacteria ?
I know that there is little or no oxygen down there but there are lots of bacteria which are anaerobic"

An interesting, though slightly O/T question!

It'd be hard to generalise. But yes, samples at some point in a well's life are checked for 'bugs', because bacterial action can affect various aspects of production. Especially so-called SRB's (Sulphur-reducing bacteria) which can lead to an increased percentage of H2S in a 'sour' environment. Sometimes biocides are added during the production process, and also to fluid going downhole if the field requires water-injection for pressure-support.

Only half an answer, I'm afraid, but it's a vast subject. A book on the subject which may interest you is 'The Deep Hot Biosphere' by the late Prof Thomas Gold. He proposed some fairly off-the-wall theories regarding the genesis of crude oil and the role of bacteria in the process, but which were roundly rubbished in the West, although the Russians were (still are?) interested. As a result his theories go largely ignored these days, and generally aren't taught in petrogeology courses.

buyinmay,

"I’ve no longer got any interest whosoever in anything he posts. Can’t be bothered to go over there and read his nonsense. "

I tend to agree, though nevertheless have looked at his latest on TLF. For the same reason I never use the 'filter' option on posts here.If someone's going to make a fool of themselves, I might as well read it, otherwise have no basis for comment.

My only comment I have (or at least which I'm going to write about) regarding his latest, is that he STILL has an incorrect figure for the December uplift by the Stena Natalia. Remember that one? The load that went to Germany so they could secretly offload the water. :-))

I make it a 400,000 bbl load, but plus 10,000 / minus 15,000, which is a reasonable margin of error, being less than half a percent.

Not bad going over just a month or so, from JUST TWO WELLS, not producing at their max. UKOG and their like must be jealous.

Yeah, thanks, Amaja, and sorry for spelling your pseudonym wrong a couple of days ago!

Oilbeback,

Good post.

I'm writing on my phone, so can't pull out a quote. But regarding 7z and optimizing flowrate, somthing's been nagging away at the back of my mind for weeks now. That being, the possibility that the company may be able to 'play with' the well's behaviour yet more by bringing one of its ESP's online. I find it difficult to properly explain this notion (even to myself!), but maybe running an ESP but choking down more might 'tweak' the way the thing behaves, and possibly 'preferentialize' flow from particular fractures the wellbore has intersected along the horizontal.

I know, that sounds very vague and wishy-washy. Maybe the idea's just daft. I don't know. But instinct tells me there might be something underlying it.

Hey! I've just found out something completely new to me.

If you write as a 'share pundit' on some online 'publication', (as distinct from a BB), you have to be registered as a 'journalist', with all that entails.

That made me laugh a lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdOCWUgwiWs

BobHope1,

"So what happened to biffa and sipp the two resident guru's on here....."

I think 'Biffa' still posts quite regularly...

Longwait,

"As it is, looking at the latest figures, there are 12 'after hours' trades, all of which are buys, including one for 144k and one for 770k shares. Obviously, not everyone has 'water on the brain.'"

Yes, but not a reason for me to throw my hat in the air with joy.

Who has the clout (or disposable cash) to make such 'buys', and instuct a broker to accumulate such a number of shares over the day and only report it out of hours once the order has been filled? It isn't the Daily Mirror reader on the Clapham bus wanting a 'punt' at an O&G share to make a change from the horses.

Could be a trader, and we'll see the same share being sold next Monday (or tomorrow) at a 1% markup.

I still remember Malcy about two years ago, when the SP was in the mid-thirties (I think) saying this was like buying twenty -pound notes for a fiver. The man's gone awfully quiet on the subject of late.

I agree with those who reckon it's going to be a slow haul back up before we see the SP at a sensible valuation once again.