Member Info for adoubleuk

Jacdaniels, "Now how do you actually become a lunatic ship watcher? I presume what I did was lunacy but is it some sort of secret society that you get invited into like the masons? Or does someone just call me a lunatic ship watcher and that's the end of it, If so any volunteers?" I posted this a few days ago, but it must be noted that no lesser person than the CEO himself referred to the 'shipwatchers' in his AGM address, but without the epithet 'lunatic' attached...

Cebo, "For whatever reason, you think thatt BP and partners won't be interested,, I find that strange but accept thats you opinion,." Backtracking a bit. Didn't want to reply using my phone. I think you may have misunderstood that part of my post slightly. My 'opinion' being that I don't think BP and others will be looking terribly intently at the performance of specific parts of the completion assembly. I'm certain that they'll be looking at the whole nine yards (especially in regard to reservoir behaviour) very closely indeed! Anyway, nobody has replied to my rather specific question about whether any contributor here has 'hands on' with 'dual pod' ESP's so no point in labouring the topic. Until, maybe, a post-recompletions RNS, but even then, that might not go into any great technical detail. Most of them don't.

"Well that's a relief the buoy has arrived safely at Lerwick. The cams gave a superb view of the arrival. " And I call myself a 'shipwatcher'? I missed the entire show, being on the road at the time. Mind you the weather was somewhat reminiscent of Shetland...

Cebo, "Anyway it is obvious that no one here really has a clue about the Duel-Pod Pumps so we are at best guessing " I'm afraid that's not true. One doesn't require a pilot's licence to understand the principles of flying an aircraft, nor work in an electronics factory to fathom the functioning of a CPU microprocessor chip. In this instance it's not so much the ESP's themselves which are interesting so much as the entire 'Y bypass' system allowing downhole access for tools below the ESP's. I only posted on this topic to see if anyone had 'hands on' with this particular setup. Not with ESP's in general (which I personally do have!). I also don't personally think that using ESP lift will be of any intense interest to BP simply because they're not using it on Quad 204, either. There are hundreds of ESP completions in use N.Sea, and tens of thousands worldwide. They're not new.

Sotb, "They have done a well test why do another....Big boat designed for clean up debris." What have you been drinking? 'Well cleanup' refers to the initial stages of putting it into production, with returns of completion brine before the oil starts flowing to the production train. With a 'classic' ESP completion (OK, 'old-fashioned', if you like) this period (maybe only a few hours) also serves as a test of the ESP to check the motor phases are correctly wired, that the current draw is as per spec for the observed fluid output, and so on. On a platform rig this would be done through the test separator, and the for the duration (whatever had been decided) before the rig is skidded to a different slot. Similarly onshore (assuming a pipeline tie-in ) before the rig moves off, or also subsea with a tie-in to the production facility (I think). The whole point being to make sure the 'gubbins' is all working right before the rig goes away. Absolutely nothing to do with 'debris'. On looking again at the dual ESP specs, though, and careful thinking things through, I reckon I've figured out how the completion 'mechanics' can be function-tested with the rig without actually bringing the well into oil production. Thus obviating the need for a test-spread and flaring. I was just curious whether anyone here has 'hands-on' experience of this.

Amongst all the oilfield trash here, has anyone actually got experience with these 'dual pod' ESP's? I haven't. But the thing being, information emerging from the AGM indicates that well cleanup won't be performed with the rig (ie no flaring in the next few weeks) but through the FPSO once on station. Additional information (from BoD members' mouths) is that this is 'low risk'. Now in the past I've always thought (and stated here) that I thought deferring cleanup until the AM arrives was risky, in case (for instance) it was found that one of the ESP's was faulty, and a rig had to come back for a remedial workover. And how do you perform cleanup (and test the ESP's) without flaring? But this afternoon I've looked more closely at the specs, and now reckon it's possible. It might make for an interesting tech discussion if anyone else is interested.

Tarkers, First of all, welcome to this BB! Your updates from Dubai (re-posted here by others) have been very informative, and many thanks for them. "adoubleuk, I did this yesterday and can confirm that the top of the flare stack is laying on the quay next to the ship, all shiney in its new coat of paint waiting to be loaded on board for the trip to Rotterdam. " Interesting! Looks like I was wrong on that, then. I looked hard at pictures of her during the trip south and couldn't spot the upper section lashed anywhere on deck, but I guess I didn't look hard enough! It makes sense though that they brought it with them for refurb at the same time as everything else.

Oh bother. The link didn't copy. Let's try again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5MbwcyVbxI

sssv, Another youtube classic! I hadn't seen that one before. Cant help noticing the crane is one made by LinkBelt. How many of them have lost their boom just like that? It was a notorious failure. Amongst the hundreds of 'fail' clips on the net, this one always makes me chuckle. ROV subsea footage of how NOT to run 18-5/8" casing. Won't have been funny for the people on the rig, though...

Cebo, "I personally think that the SP will hit a new all time high before FOil, maybe even 80-90p, others will think this is mad or not possible and thats ok, - it is my opinion and I see no reason why not, particularly if the POO stays in the 70-75 range, no EPS overspend and Hurricane manage to produce this year" I don't think that's mad! I also feel it's a very possible scenario, and rather hope it will happen. I can't help but think of SOU a while back. That SP skyrocketed with absolutely no good reason based on fundementals.The market moves in mysterious ways, sometimes.

pijoe, "of course you can breakdown the numbers in several ways" Sure. But aren't we forgetting some things here? I can think of a couple straight off. The 'speculation aspect'. As others have noted and most of us have known for a long time, Hurricane Energy is not exactly a name on the lips of every household. But one of these days (I personally suspect not long post-FoiL) the company will hit the news (TV, red-top newspapers and so on) rather than remaining relatively hidden from view in the FT or on private channels like Vox. But also, how about the mooted move away from AIM and into a more 'respectable' market? Won't that in itself (assuming it happens) move the SP higher? (Open question, by the way. I'd be interested to read others' opinions on this.)

Genghis, "As you would expect, some very (over) cautious assumptions in there." Yes indeed. Edison's reports always seem to lean to the conservative side of things, though. But also Pijoe notes "interesting they use the 10yr EPS not 6 yr to get to core NAV" ...which I admit I find rather puzzling. The thing being, even within the 6 year timespan, and making certain assumptions such as the 'success' of the EPS along the lines that the company has outlined, Hurricane will have moved on to 'bigger stuff'. Not just tying another well or two into the FPSO, but also having partnered-up in some form with a Major for FFD, and also not just on Lancaster, but the other assets as well. Which infers money coming into the bank, and not just from EPS oil production. Of course at the same time there will be greater opex / capex for development drilling, further production infastructure, and so on, but given such a scenario it will be cashflow just as much as profit which 'drives' the SP. Imho. Another thing being, by 2025 the EPS will no longer be referred to as such. The AM will still be there, likewise the two existant well and possibly a couple more. But as a standalone (and by then 'mature') production facility acting as the cash-cow financing the installation of a number of fixed-jacket platforms the length of the Rona Ridge. (And if that seems fanciful, maybe it is, but it's a personal 'lookahead' which I believe is shared by Dr T and others.) For those reasons I'm not worried by Edison's overly cautious approach. After all, it's in some respects their duty to be cautious, not to hype things, and simply to work from data already acquired rather than a pipe-dream 'bigger picture'. Personally I'm glad to see their 3% valuation increase for now, and working from such data.I suspect though that within the next nine months or so (dependent upon the date of FoiL) they'll have published a revision which will hopefully significantly higher. Patience...

Longwait, Thanks for the thanks! But I forgot to add the rider 'imho' to my post. It's just personal opinion, but I'm part of that clan which believes two plus two equals four. Right. Another day of dust, diesel, and danger beckons...

Wellwell, "Considering most people think a consortium rather than a company will buy out HUR " It's late, I'm tired from a long day, and have to be up early for another one. Be feel obliged to reply to this, because it seems you seem to be promoting an idea which frankly doesn't ring true to me. That being 'buy out HUR'. I think that's a false idea. And all the presentations and so on reinforce that. Hurricane Energy as a company is not for sale. However it's in posesssion of assets which are increasing in value, and (quite unequivocally stated) intends to sell or otherwise partially lease for monetary gain. We disagree on a number of things, Wellwell, especially when it comes to your friend Bernstein. Be that as it may. However RB reckons the company may be eventually worth 17 billion. And he's a money-bags, and no matter how much I may object to the way he operates, I have to listen to that sort of stuff if I want to make a profit myself. Which is what this game boils down to, after all. Think about it. HUR wants to go FTSE 250. But they do not want to try to become a Major oil-producer. So how do they reconcile this? What do they have for sale? The existing assets, of course. Acquired though years of hard work and proving-up. It's all very simple, when you think about it. Forget any 'takeover'. When Hurrican eventually 'monetise' that's when our shares still held will become gold-dust. Irrespective of POO, exactly how many billios of barrels of oil, or whatever. Hurricane Energy (as a company) is not for sale.

WT, "Moderate Gale Warning next Thursday." So?... Normal. So what?

IJWT, "G15 This is part of their recession scenario and is an element of multiple scenarios that form the inputs of a model to project economic outcomes on a weighted likelihood basis to.predict potential credit loss. AS their down side scenario it focuses on the risks and weights them by how.much they are considered tail or not. Their moderate scenario presumes continuing growth and optimistic scenarios an uplift in global economic performance. It has several hundred variables to measure as inputs." Fine. But you're talking about the British economy and Brexit, and that's got nothing to do with the price of crude. OK, the benchmarks are Brent and West Texas Intermediate. But Brent is in the process of being dismantled and what remains is hardly producing anything anymore, and West Texas is... West Texas. Cowboys. Just the same as the way most gold prices are benchmarked to the daily 'London Fixing' made in the morning. But thanks to 'Brown's Blunder', there's very little actual physical gold left in the UK's coffers. Brexit (if it actually happens) won't change anything, least of all the POO. Except the profits I hope to make from my holding in this share, because sterling keeps dropping against the euro. Except that (hopefully) may change for the better sometime. Whatever Moodys say. And why should I listen to anything some outfit calling itself 'Moody' says, anyway? Their problem, not mine.

Erratum. I wrote at 23:35 ":a 'DST-style' flare for a couple of days may not be easily observable" For which read "A 'DST-style flare for a couple of days will probably not occur'. Detail difference, but just to avoid any ambiguity..

Genghis, "The problem here is that this resource is just SO big" Yes. Nail hit firmly on head.

IJWT, "The moderate economic scenario from one of the big economic consultancies is for $80 oil in 2020 presuming a hard Brexit dislocation is avoided." Oh c'mon. Brexit has nothing to do with the global crude oil price.

Wellwell, "I suspected as much although I think I was pulled up for it at the time!" By myself, n'est-ce pas? Subsequent to information received post-AGM, I have revised my opinion. To whit:a 'DST-style' flare for a couple of days may not be easily observable, after all. But lack of that doesn't mean that the two-well recompletions haven't been succesfully done and tested to see that everything's working OK. A 'milestone' about which the company may or may not choose to deliver an RNS. I don't know. So drawing my horns back in on this particular topic. We'll just have to wait and see.