Member Info for adoubleuk

pijoe,

"so the rest of the EV must be the 2C current value"

I'm not sure I want to get seriously embroiled in this to-and-fro, but as you know I am one of those who anticipates (no, hopes for) an increase in the SP pre-foil.

My argument being that sure, current SP is what it it not because it's a reflection of current assets, 2C or 2P, but that (and the potential increase in them or transformation of 2P to 2C) MINUS a number of perceived risk factors.

Now some people like to bang on about the 'risk' of Fractured Basement, and the possibility it 'wont work' WoS when it demonstrably does elsewhere in the world. But I simply refuse to believe that all II's and other companies are a bunch of ninnies, afraid of their own shadows, and totally ignorant of petrophysical realities.

Nor do I believe that any of them suspect that those 15,000 bbl/day DST's were someone burning diesel as a big hoax and that Hurricanes just spinning us a load of hokum.

But there remain some totally prosaic risks which cannot be ignored, relating togetting all those chikens currently in line to the point where they're something to be popped in the oven for Sunday lunch. And these risks are simply related to the hardware. The AM setting sail should raise a few grins (though I don't believe prior sea-trials will move the SP an inch), but there'll be a big sigh of relief when she's in UK waters, and an even bigger one when she's latched onto the buoy.

At which point I feel a lot of people won't want to be 'out' when the announcement is made about FoiL. And the MM's have their job to do, after all.

PPS...

Not that I'm recommending making decisions based on hunches and gut-feelings to anyone, regarding share investing!

PS...

But as I've entered the chat myself, I must admit my sell just below the spike last year (at 59p) was based purely on a lucky hunch and gut feelings. No looking at figures, charts, or anything.

I hasten to add that that's a complete opposite to the way I play poker, which involves lots of conscious, almost instant calculation of odds, and observing the other players' behaviour.

SiPP,

". Not buying back in low for the rise is another. Makes your original decision look somewhat fortunate. Much like adoubleUK's. At least he admits his good fortune.3

Please don't bring my name into this argument! Pretty please? My own holding is now what it was before May 2017, and has been for quite a while.

Genghis,

"Very interesting, surprised no other comments. Remember the 3 ship flotilla all over our and adjacent acreage last year, never really knew what that was about either.

It would be nice to know who she's on hire to, is it HUR?"

I think the survey's being performed for Nexen. What its purpose is, I haven't a clue. If so it's started a couple of weeks ahead of schedule, though the pemit's been in place for a few weeks now.

(Sources: DECC/OGA, Kingfisher)

Biffadog,

" I can't see this situation changing until the AM makes her move. The fuse is then lit and FOIL becomes very real. Look at it as the last decent opportunity to buy some HUR shares at a half decent price. Personally, I wont be doing that as my boots were filled long ago."

I completely agree with you. A while back I thought that we'd see a steady climb with each bit of 'news', but that doesn't seem to be the case. (Though of course the news has been sparse: no RNS about buoy delivery to Lerwick, for example.) But let's face it, all the operational action occuring at present is almost literally 'doing the groundwork': it's not as though they've started putting the roof on the building. I'm personally beginning to wonder if sailaway of the FPSO is really going to influence the SP much: maybe even that won't happen until she's WoS. At that point though, surely a speculative 'FOMO phenomenon' ought to have started to occur?

Jay_85,

A bit of further information...

You and others here may have seen the acronym ROV used in the tech talk here. It stands for Remote Operated Vehicle.

In those photos of 'fishing for stones', the thing hovering by the 'grab' (and in fact controlling it) is an ROV.

Just for anyone who didn't know.

That one's made by Oceaneering (a leader in the ROV field), and (anoracks only) is a Millenium Plus model, I think.

SiPP,

Wrt your point (4):

"SURF Installation (Window) Procurement/fabrication of main components ongoing"

We haven't received any specific news on this lately, but I would expect the procurement/fabrication of such items to have been long completed by now. Procurement certainly, but probably fabrication as well. Stuff such as the flowlines and umbilicals are of standard production line nature, only 'made to measure' in terms of length and quantity required. They should be sitting in a warehouse somewhere awaiting shipping and installation.

SiPP,

Wrt your point (4):

"SURF Installation (Window) Procurement/fabrication of main components ongoing"

We haven't received any specific news on this lately, but I would expect the procurement/fabrication os such items to have been long completed by now. Procurement certainly, but probably f

I've suddenly noticed a change since this site went rather calamatously offline over the last few days. The number of 'posts per page' can now be increased to 75 by clicking the menu, rather than the previous 50. A minor detail, but useful.

C-P,

PS Please pardon slapdash mis-typing of 'received'.

RNS when? Within 30 days, probably. Imho.

Corral-Part,

We recieved an RNS when the recompletions started. To my mind somewhat belatedly because it wasn't when the rig arrived on location, but instead after BOP maintenence was complete and the re-entry work actually commenced. For this reason I'd expect an RNS announcing that the work is finished. Though again belatedly and when the rig leaves location, not when the BOP has been unlatched from the well!

I've just been sent a PM with a link to Instagram (ie public domain information) showing a photo taken from the PBLJ. The poster's comment is 'there's another job done' (he was flying out that day). This strikes me as the sort of phrase that a 'service hand' might use, not a crewmember on regaular rotations.

If so, this lends weight to the tihinking that Seven has been completed and the rig's moved to Six.

There are other comments from people who obviously know the man, and also the rig. Some mentioning (curiously) the terribly slow wifi / internet connection. Maybe it's not the rig's wifi, but instead that outgoing comms are monitored and possibly censored, in keeping with Hurricanes 'tight hole' policies! Nothing illegal about that.

Wellwell, "Current weather isn't bad enough to disconnect mid-ops as far as I can see. " Agreed (for once!).

Wellwell, "ESP cabling....." What about it????

Wessex, Agree with you that we won't see an RNS. The last operational update was regarding the start of recompletion work on both wells, so I suspect there will be no further news until both wells have been recompleted and the rig moves off. (Having said that, maybe the company WILL issue an RNS tomorrow to prove me wrong again!) But there hasn't been an RNS about the buoy being safely delivered to Lerwick either, has there? Funny to think about great shipwatching minds thinking (and acting) alike! I hadn't looked at the AIS today, but reading Yasirasmi's post I did, then scooted through to my office to do some quick measurements on a certain graphic pinned to my whiteboard! Yup, I reckon the rig's now over Six.

SotB, "With the wind that’s been about of late have we unlatched for safety purposes..." You know the answer to that one... I DON'T KNOW! However, were that the case, why unlatch, move about 40m northwest, then move south to a position closer to the wells than the northward 'zig' took them? And then remain at rest there. All within the space of 24 hours?

yasirasmi, "Just curious that it seems PBLJ has moved 20m or so since yesterday. Asking knowledgeable contributors here that is it safe to assume that it is starting work on the 2nd well now?" Well spotted! Yes, I personally believe that is a safe assumption to make. I stand to be corrected by others who may think otherwise, but I reckon the distance is too great to have been done without unlatching the stack, I don't see any reason they'd want to do that other than a well-to-well move, and the 'zigzag' performed seems consistent with keeping things safe for approaching the second 'target', which I take to be 21a/205-6z. This means they'll have been working on 7z for about 23 days (we don't know EXACTLY when re-entry commenced), which implies we're nicely within schedule. (PS To AS: have a nice day!)

This is in fact interesting, regarding this and many other BB's. The difference between 'longterm holders' and 'traders'. They don't always seem to see eye-to-eye. Which I think is a bit of a shame. Because let's face it, we're all only in it for the money (to quote the late great Frank Zappa). I guess it all boils down to personal disposable wealth, especially in a share like this one. Because real longterm, Hurricane will undoubtedly be (except to the sceptics) the proverbial 'multi-bagger'. But it all depends how long one can leave one's money sitting. When (not 'if') this thing reaches a quid, I'll be top-slicing for sure. In a few months' time, I anticipate. Even if I'm eating newspaper-and-ketchup sandwiches meanwhile. Good to see such conversations here! Sort-of. The lack of idiots and trolls means the SP isn't going anywhere fast. Maybe I should buy some more ketchup.

(SiPP to Pijoe): " I do harbour one long term resentment and that was you posting a YouTube link to a song ridiculing all those that didn't sell out. I forget which song it was but I'm sure you know which one but it was" I suggest both of you watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyKLcQq7WeY Preferably listening through BOSE headphones turned up loud. It may cause you to make peace with each other. And forget the Merchant of Venice. (Or maybe remind you of that play.)