Member Info for adoubleuk

Ricfle,

"Production has not started so the time is fine to discuss this risk."

For what? Will Dr T suddenly say "Oh, some people on some shareholders' BB's suddenly think the field's going to become depleted! Let's stop everything, send the FPSO to the breaker's yard and not produce, after all!"

No, that won't happen.

This non-problem of depletion, fears about wax, water ingress, and so on and so forth, have been discussed here for at least a couple of years until the cows come home. And frankly, In my personal opinion, such pointless discussion is now tedious, boring, and serves no purpose.

For potential investors thinking to buy in here at this rather late stage, my own advice would be to turn to the company literature which says 'depletion is not anticipated in six years' or words to that effect. Not some old miseryguts called Ricfle who probably doesn't have a single oil industry qualification to his name who thinks otherwise.

Of course, in six years' time the field will be depleted to the extent of 37 million barrels or so of crude. But that's less than ten percent of (the very conservative) estimated oil in place in Lancaster alone, so not worth losing sleep over.

No, myself, if've bought the ticket, am confident the train will take me where the ticket says it will, and am enjoying the ride. Watching ships through the window. 'Cos that's all that's left to do for now.

Ricfle,

"All within the AGM presentation."

Very observant. But NOT in the Q2 Update.

EPS, damit. Not ESP.

Ricfle,

"Maybe this time you could give the board the benefit of your knowledge, putting our minds at rest and indeed DSPP's."

Or maybe... I just can't be bothered. DYOR. The time for such stuff is over. The pieces for ESP are being put together. If you have doubts about whether it will work it's time to sell up before it's too late and buy into something surefire like Tesla electric cars, instead.

Boyzee,

" ps not interested in TA here at the moment ... real news is driving this now."

Maybe you should kill another chicken and start sifting through the entrails again! Things seem to be steadying up. What do you reckon? Just a holding pattern, or maybe a retrace in store until the next news?

Oh what fun! Another nice coincidence. A few hours ago SiPP writes:

""Hurricane Energy may have to revise its figures to include forecasts for $80 oil when it release its Q3 Update."

I reply to him shortly afterwards, saying:

"Thanks for the reminder. Going by previous dates, the Q Update should drop in our laps any day now. "

And Bam! An hour later the Q3 Update is published! Thank you, Godalming.

I only really note 3 new things (althought there are others).

1 The company has now released $200 million revenue pa based on $60 Brent. (Ought to be enough to drill a few more wells without breaking the piggy-bank.)

2 Tightened 'timeline' windows.

3 On page 13, a note above the production graph saying "No decline forecasted (sic) during 6-year EPS period". (Ricfle may be able to sleep easier.)

SiPP,

"Hurricane Energy may have to revise its figures to include forecasts for $80 oil when it release its Q3 Update."

Thanks for the reminder. Going by previous dates, the Q Update should drop in our laps any day now. Have to look out for it.

Personally I hope that when reiterating forecast cash figures from production, the company retains its earlier (low Poo) table, but maybe adds a further 'what if?' one based on something like $75 / bbl oil as well. Though anyone with the slightest bit of nous and a pocket calculator should be able to do the sums themselves.

I too wouldn't be at all surprised to see a hefty spike in crude, but once again short-lived, nevertheless triggering an upsurge in exploration. Many people in the industry (as distinct from economists) have been considering this as inevitable for a couple of years now, without changing their minds from day to day. In the not too distant future, the words 'peak oil' will be bandied about again, not because the oil's going to run out, but in the time-honoured 'the stone age didn't end for lack of stones' way. Except that paleolithic man had found better ways to make tools, which isn't our case now. Instead it's because some idiots thought that you could dig up oil with dollar bills instead of drillbits, which isn't really a very good notion.

Genghis,

" I bet he will be spending more time in DDW than the other two you mention."

Here I disagree with you. Why would the Ops Director (with all sorts of operations on his plate at the moment) want to be in Dubai? Hurricane is 'hands off and let the specialists do their work' - orientated. There's nothing happening to the AM which requires NP's oversight. Bluewater will be sending him daily reports, though.

Ricfle,

"14.45 at the following link, listen carefully"

As I have done in the past, and have just done so again.

And your point is?

At that point in the interview, and for the minute following, it is Malcy who is speaking, and who uses the term 'selling the business'. When Dr T replies, it is in the context of selling or farming out 'the portfolio', which of course I take to be the CLA/GWA assets. Not the company itself, which currently holds and manages that portfolio.

....And whoever invented 'predictive text' deserves to be shot!

(bother: slip of finger posted the message prematurely!)

...representing a different point of view.

We know that Hurricane (ie Dr T and his BoD) intend to 'monetise' on the assets acquired and the work done so far, and we've even been given a rough timeline for this. Discussions with interested parties should start sometime about six months after FoiL and EPS production. A period during which the company will be gathering data and acquiring empirical knowledge about how the Lancaster field 'behaves'. So no article in the media talking about a sle of some sort can be considered a 'scoop': we've heard it already, from the company's own mouth.

But the thing is, ²at no point has Dr T ever mentioned selling his company. What he has talked about is either outright sale of the GLA / GWA, or a very substantial farmout in which Hurricane would retain a small, non-'operating' interest.

So why oh why all this renewed talk about 'takeover'? There is no evidence of any party acquiring a large block of shares with which to gain a majority of voting rights and thus precipite such a thing. And furthermore any such action seems counter-intuitive: with the EPS coming together, Hurricane is still 'preparing the product'. What customer in their right mind would want to buy an unfinished item?

Whereas conversely, I can see every possibility of BP, Statoil, Shell, or whoever talking with their major shareholders (and amongst themselves), saying something along these lines. "OK, let's let Hurricane do their EPS, let's look at it after a few months, and then start haggling with them about a price." And that's something they can plan for in advance.

Hey, if I go to the market and see something I like, I might buy it: some apples, for instance. Might buy the lot. But I don't want to buy the market- stall and the white van as well. Though I might pay the stallholder a retainer so that he works for me choosing more nice apples in the future, and maybe delivering them to me.

OK, I've said my bit. Now shoot down that balloon.

JoeBass (and others),

"One things for sure, I bet RT would not sell for a quid a share."

There are a a number of posts now cropping up here which seem similar to some we've seen before, in April last year. And anyone who's been in here for any length of time will remember how the SP behaved around then, although of course now we don't have any big funding operations in the pipeline.

These posts appear to have a common theme, and it's one which I personally believe to be untrue or based on a misconceptuion of things as they are. This is of course just a personal opinion, and I don't state it as a fact. So welcome any replies representing

Extrader,

"Seems a 'courageous' decision (copyright : Yes, Minister), by a company that has already been shafted by the Americans once (Macondo) for its environmental practices !"

Not sure about that. The thing being, shale wells (and associated fraccing) is already considered quite 'normal' onshore USA. The number of shale wells drilled and fracced there outnumbers the entire number of oilwells (both conventional and unconventional) on and offshore the UK by an order of magnitude. And UK shale wells only by three orders of magnitude, easily. The tree-hugger lobby wields very little power there. Lay down on a wellsite access road in Oklahoma and either the sheriff will get called or the trucks simply won't stop...

WT,

"I wonder what they are up to this fine Friday evening with oodles of evening/morning light to work with and a good weather forecast?"

24/7

Missdosh,

Once again, thanks a million! I've only looked at a few minutes of the video but will now leave it 'til I've finished 'doing something else' online as bedtime viewing. Just seeing footage of a kellydrive rig (pre-topdrives) means that watching it it will be good!

pijoe,

"sound like a challenge for the EGM on t/o bid.....too sure how long (or inclination) you have to learn..."

At least turning up to the EGM on a horse, I wouldn't have to pay the London congestion charge.

Not sure how much Britanny Ferries charges for carrying a horse, though.

Ricfle,

"I remember you telling me that US fracking was dead and all the operatives were working in the pizza hut and the PoO would never recover"

I don't. But as you're a whizz at tracking down posts made years ago, maybe you'd like to quote the reference. It'll give me a good laugh at my own expense, probably. I might have had a rather good lunch before I wrote it.

Nevertheless the Baker Hughes 'Rig Count' remains a fraction of what it was five years ago.

HTL,

"Well you have got the stetson. I am sure you could rustle up a pair of spurs from somewhere, lol."

That HAD occured to me. (The Stetson bit, not the spurs.)

There's just one problem. I've never ridden a horse in my life. But the idea of turning up outside the casino and hitching my horse to the railings on the terrace prior to the Saturday poker game has huge kudos appeal. I reckon it would only take about four hours to get there at a moderate canter instead of the 55 minutes by car. Unless the horse wanted to stop for a snack and a drink halfway.

The weekend O/T has started...

pijoe,

Yup, haha. I think 300 dollar oil is really stretching things a bit...

Talking of funny things, though, on the drive home in the early hours this morning I pulled over to fill the tank of my car, and actually looked at the price of the diesel and what a fillup cost. It's the first time I've actually consciously done this in ages, because normally I don't bother. A fillup costs what it costs: just a fact of life. My car won't run on air.

Hmmm. That stuff's getting expensive! Even with 76 dollar oil. If it goes to 300????

Maybe I should buy a horse.

Ricfle,

"What price do you see the SP rising to on a bid? Why is the SP not at that level now, could it be the ii's and majors perception of the risks?"

Or maybe it's just due to the fact that a bid offer has not been made yet... It'll rise to that level when a bid is made. Not before. By definition. Otherwise there'd be no point in holding onto our shares if we could make that profit now.