Member Info for adoubleuk

SG2, "most interested in your thoughts on that book, Adouble...." I've already finished it, which as you may guess is not a good sign. I an somewhat surprised and slightly scandalised that the the book found a publisher, not just because it's not particularly well written (it isn't), but because its existance (to me) hovers on the borders of good taste, in that it strikes me as making a quick buck out of others' misfortunes. The author worked for ten years on the DWH before tranferring 2 years before the accident to a reserch project on 'dual gradient' drilling. So he knew most of the people onboard. So essentially, 80% of the book is taken up with decribing daily life on the rig, and what a grand bunch on people crewed it. Told mainly in anecdotal style, using all the normal oilfield terms and vocabulary which would be largely incomprehensible to non oil-people. The final pages comprise survivors' accounts of what happened after the blowout and the rig catching fire, but quite honestly, that's of little interest to people who want to know what happened to cause the event. I know it sounds callous, but read one story of someone getting into a lifeboat and you've pretty much read them all, with minor detail differences. To someone unfamiliar with oilwell drilling, they'll be left no wiser as to what it entails after reading this book than they were beforehand. And (maybe wisely), it doesn't touch on the technical details and events in the final few days' runup to the disaster, which was a comedy of errors which almost guaranteed that catastrophe would occur. But right towards the end, the author claims that the dual-gradient system he'd worked on (finally not fitted to TO's rigs) could have prevented the accident. Which is patently untrue, because the blowout occured after the drilling had been finished, and the 'gizmo' wouldn't have been in use at the time. So not recommended, and I feel I've wasted my money by buying it.

Something mentioned a few days ago. For anyone vaguely interested. The latest 'Macondo book', which arrived in my letterbox today. I was mistaken. The author is not the DWH's maintenence Supervisor, but someone else who used to work on the thing as a Driller, but had already been transferred elswhere when the accident occured. A different Williams. But who within the first three pages already describes the movie as 'distorted fabrications'. I'll let you know what I think of the book when I've finished it. Probably by the end of the week.

Ricfle, "I am sure that even the BoD cannot state what continence they will be left with, when they achieve first oil." Are you suggesting they may have p**sed themselves laughing over what Shell didn't recognise back in the seventies?

plumbus, Yup, that's an interesting article Genghis has pointed us to. "Does Trump really want to rely on Gulf supplies again?" Nail hit squarely on the head! $30 oil will essentially send the US shale oil / gas business to the wall again, just as it's getting really back onto its feet. Many companies are still just using the current upturn to pay off massive debt, and it's doubtful they could do it again and survive. The problem with Trum (no, one of the many) is that he doesn't listen to his advisors, and that he appears to concentrate on just one thing at a time without thinking through how one significant deliberate positive change can provoke negative consequences in a different sector. He himself has had to sue for bankruptcy more than once. The US oil industry isn't just a chain of luxury hotels or a television channel. He doesn't seem to appreciate that if the US drilling business falters again, that's a major domestic customer for his beloved steel business who won't be buying any more. Etc....

SiPP, "AK, how do you know that?" I'm sorry, but there are occasions when some things must be kept confidential. I'm sure you'll understand.

Cebo, You know how I know that!

The JK is picking up cargo for the US and then heading for New Orleans. And please don't ask how I know that. Job finished for us.

JayKay1, "Makes our 2 well setup look somewhat ‘insignificant’, but so impressive in terms of production efficiency..." Then add in potential recoverable volumes... All by a company with 15 salaried staff. And then some people wonder why some major outfit hasn't waded in and bought the company out for a song? And why the CEO who founded it and his BoD has evidently said no to any lowball buyins? They don't want to look stupid to their own shareholders for having taken their eye off the ball some years ago, that's why. Good, innit? Fun.

Oh, and on the subject of people sometimes goading each other (my last post), I notice Ricfle's chucked another pillow at me. "This is what you do not understand about money or engineering, if you can do a FFD with multiple FPSO at a CAPEX of approx' $4 a barrel for 20 years or a jacketed platform at $10 per barrel for the 2.6bn barrels Hurricane already have, which would it be? FPSO's at $10.4bn or platform at $26bn?" And this is where our pal Ricfle and myself wildly differ. I know a bit about money, mainly regarding how to spend it on pastimes and various ludicrous habits, but a heck of a lot about oilfield engineering. Ricfle's good at doing sums regarding how oil companies should be able to make money, but knows diddlysquat about offshore engineering and similar heavy metal. I have a very simple answer to his comment. BP has already broken one FPSO on Quad 204, had to shut down the field for two and a half years while the new one was being built, but could cover that with the profits generated by their other huge worldwide operations and their huge available debt-leverage. In the meantime they've installed fixed-jacket platforms on Clair Ridge. Platforms with a design-life exceeding 35 years. What's the difference between Quad 204 and Clair Ridge? Water depth.

Wellwell, " this discussion just goes to show the myriad of options. All of them good it has to be said." Quite agree. That's what's fun (and constructive) about this BB when you compare it with so many others. Lively debate, some 'old lags' (myself included) sometimes deliberately goading others, but without it degenerating into a slanging-match. It's interesting to see the number of 'red rosettes' posting here at the moment. A good sign. Whereas 'upstairs' (as we Premium subscribers refer to that chatboard) hasn't been used for ten days. Though of course when the SP really starts moving again the usual trolls, dreamers and other such bottom-feeders will move back in here, and 'we' will retreat back to the 'business lounge'. It's been an interesting weekend. With the high point being that the buoy is now floating in UK waters at last! I wonder if there'll be an RNS?

Wellwell, The buoy has already been offloaded from the JK!

IJWT, "Doubling the cost of a second FPSO (funded via current EPS) would yield a solution for say 150k bopd. Run $35 a barrel through that for 330 days per annum and you get $1.73bn p.a. free cash. For 7 years of a FFD that is in excess of $12bn so easily pays for an FFD." Fine. If you enjoy 'Muskonomics'. Oil-people like cash profits, though.

extrader, "Meanwhile, as you're around, what's the top speed of one of those trucks you play with ;-> ?" They're 'limited' to 100 mph. Racetrack crash-barriers and security protection isn't really designed for things weighing six tons... Accelleration 0-60 is in the five second bracket, though.

LKwatch, Thanks. Something VERY interesting. That picture's had 258 'views' already. This BB is just the tip of a big iceberg...

Extrader, "(1) It's probably an imperfect analogy, but I'd rather have a major oilco/consortium try to stop our truck with hay bales of cash when we're at 60 mph than when we're still only trundling along at 10 mph or so....They'll know they need a lot more bales....." I like that analogy! (For obvious reasons). But I think we're doing more than 10 mph already. Just look at the pictures! OK, maybe only 15, but getting faster...

IJWT, "This is the crux of the FPSO solution not as an additiomal EPS but as a fully fledged funding mechanism. If repeating the trick once the parallels are established.......... If contemplating and FFD for all fields they can fund each one." Yes, but no (imho). Given the acreage involved, given the volumes of oil to be extracted, there is utterly no way FFD can be funded by 'interim' FPSO systems. The Lancaster EPS is costing mere hundreds of millions. Think two orders of magnitude greater for FFD. Ten Billion. Just for GLA (as we believe it to be). Yes, I know, these might sound like unimaginable figures. Greater than the GDP of many nations. But they're not crazy. A billion bbls of oil extractable using ten billion's worth of infrastucture? That's ten dollars (or pounds) Capex per bbl. Do you think oil is ever going to decend to $10 / bbl in the future? By the time FFD kicks in (let's say seven years' time), it's more likely to be $200, due to the decline in exploration and discovery since 2014. That sounds like a good investment to me. So why pee around with interim stuff? Accellerate the 'big thing'. In an earlier post when I mentioned the EPS (or more than one) paying the engineers' wages, I wasn't joking. It won't pay for the big stuff. And also, if you mess around putting in little things, you increase the number of engineers! People like BP and Exxon and Shell know this. And that's why they do huge projects costing tens of billions, but end up making profits in the tens of billions. It's also why they're letting Hurricane get on with what they're doing, for now! (All imho, of course.) PS Anyone following the absolutely fabulous Porsche / Ford 'dice' going on right now? Brilliant.

IJWT, "This is the crux of the FPSO solution not as an additiomal EPS but as a fully fledged funding mechanism. If repeating the trick once the parallels are established.......... If contemplating and FFD for all fields they can fund each one." Yes, but no (imho). Given the acreage involved, given the volumes of oil to be extracted, there is utterly no way FFD can be funded by 'interim' FPSO systems. The Lancaster EPS is costing mere hundreds of millions. Think two orders of magnitude greater for FFD. Ten Billion. Just for GLA (as we believe it to be). Yes, I know, these might sound like unimaginable figures. Greater than the GDP of many nations. But they're not crazy. A billion bbls of oil extractable using ten billion's worth of infrastucture? That's ten dollars (or pounds) Capex per bbl. Do you think oil is ever going to decend to $10 / bbl in the future? By the time FFD kicks in (let's say seven years' time), it's more likely to be $200, due to the decline in exploration and discovery since 2014. That sounds like a good investment to me. So why pee around with interim stuff? Accellerate the 'big thing'. In an earlier post when I mentioned the EPS (or more than one) paying the engineers' wages, I wasn't joking. It won't pay for the big stuff. And also, if you mess around putting in little things, you increase the number of engineers! People like BP and Exxon and Shell know this. And that's why they do huge projects costing tens of billions, but end up making profits in the tens of billions. It's also why they're letting Hurricane get on with what they're doing, for now!

Yobbo, "The other stuff on the deck. Is that the lower two sections of the much discussed flair stack for the FPSO ?" No. Nothing to do with 'our' operations. Cargo picked up for someone else. Refinery equipment. Maybe for Sullom Voe (???)

SG2, Yet more. And for DickyH and others interested. " I too read a few (three) of the Mac/systems failure books some years ago, including the one you mention" After replying to Dicky's question, I went to Amazon to see if any further reviews had been added to those for that book I was involved with. And found something new. Greg Williams (the Maintenance Supervisor who also worked as an 'advisor' for the film, and on who the film's 'hero character' was based) has recently published his own book, entitled 'Our Deepwater Horizon'. Of course I instantly ordered a copy, which should arrive Tuesday. So not having read it yet, obviously can't recommend it or anything. But I'm sure it will be interesting for those curious about that singular event.

SG2, " I disagree (with the O&G industry) on the suitability or otherwise of pyromechanically-operated devices for 'last-ditch' bop use: having worked in the (pyromech) field for 33 years - some of which being with probably the worlds leading specialist - I figure I/we are entitled to a reasonable opinion on the matter. However, they're not used, so the discussion's moot." I'd like to continue the 'moot discussion' a bit, because it's interesting! Hey, it's the weekend, and this BB sometimes goes a bit O/T at weekends. I'm not saying you're wrong with the idea of a pyromechanical 'absolute last-ditch use once only' Blind Shear Ram. But the thing is, every BOP in existance is in some ways a compromise. This additional ram would have to be an addition to what already exists. Which would make the whole contraption yet bigger and heavier than it already is. Maybe physically a bigger and heavier BOP couldn't be handled by existing rigs. Plus also, it would require 'subsea engineers' to be trained in handling exceedingly powerful explosives, cause all sorts of 'licencing' issues, and so on. Sure, explosives are used in oilwell work, mostly by Schlumberger these days (shed a tear for the long gone McCullogh!), but that's on an 'as needed' basis. And there are lots of parts of the world where just getting in a 'perforating crew' requires a military escort and so on. And heck, a couple of 'failure points' at Macondo regarding the BOP was that a battery hadn't been replaced according to the manufacturer's guidance and a solenoid valve had been wired-up backwards. The thing being, BOP's, despite their complexity, are quite simple things. And if maintained correctly, shouldn't fail (unless there's a longtime design fault which hadn't been noticed before). But yet despite such simplicity, some people managed to get it wrong! (For various reasons which may not have been their own 'fault'.) ... Some years ago I took a ride in a Cirrus SR22 light aircraft. I won't go into the details of the how and why, but I was allowed to sit left-seat (I don't have a pilot's licence nor pretend to be an aviator) and once in the air was allowed to take the (joystick) controls. Which was great fun, and easy. And as an option, those aircraft have a built-in parachute which can take the entire thing back to earth in the event of a wing falling off or something like that, even though it may be a rough landing. Check youtube: it's been done 'in anger'! So one wonders why a similar thing can't be applied to a Boeing 777. But it just can't... Maybe a huge helium-balloon thing? But then where would the passengers sit?