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While I'm at this keyboard...

Something I've noticed about this share over the last few days, which has puzzled me a bit. Actual SP 'movement' seems to take place in one go: otherwise the SP isn't exactly 'volatile' for now. Like today. Up the SP goes to a new value, and there it stays. No 'sawtooth' graph around.

Does anyone here have any explanations / oddball ideas / conspiracy theories, etc., about this?

Simon_Said,

"Important to underline that A) massive BOPD figures are not the idea here. The rig won't be the sort that could support that anyway, and it's more about showing conclusive evidence of the oil than actually producing a huge amount. "

There's more than that. The well will not be DST'd. In other (layman's) words, it will not be flow-tested. Check out the drilling program as outlined in the EIA presented to the govt by Corallian.

This I find quite understandable, given the location. All you need (not) is some rubberneck in a Zodiac floating round the rig when it comes time to light the flare!...

... for 'dafte' read 'deft'.

Has my spellcheck reverted to Sakespearian English, or what? Though if AS starts referring to us a 'dafte shipwatchers' you'll know he's been reading this BB.

mrJim (et al),

" he said he will start low but I suspect he will ramp up to the 17k before the 6 months are up if they are performing well "

Yes. And one way or another, it'll be at least a month after FoiL where we (through some dafte shipwatching!) will get an idea of initial production rates. And even the initial two or three months' production won't be representative of, nor indicative of, production figures further on up the road.

All this obviously has a bearing on a particular topic cropping up here, that being the behaviour of the SP in the months immediately following FoiL, but prior to farmout or sale negotiations starting with potential bidders.

Personally I think the SP will hit a peak somewhere around 'FoiL time', then pull back a bit towards some more stable value. But that could of course be changed with news of further drilling (and more particularly the results thereof), a possible move upmarket and off AIM, and a number of other things.

It suddenly occurs to me that one thing's a certainty. Assuming FoiL has occured sometime in H1 next year (as still projected by the company, even though that's 'conservative'), production figures will have to be disclosed at the AGM. So book your seats now! (Hopefully the venue won't be too far from Harrods.)

I find all today's talk about five quid or ten quid rather entertaining, personally. Let's see it make one pound and then start talking the gold-plated Bentley numbers, eh? Though maybe our friend Reverandy could start a sweepstake on the SP at FoiL when he comes back from his holidays.

Stocklife,

"parta and colter are huge with very very very high chance of success on/close to existing discoveries
another thing people do not talk about is if they are success it leads to follow on drills"

For the sake of accuracy, this is not strictly speaking the case with Colter. Corallion have expressly stated that the well will be drilled and appraised, then permanently abandoned. And in the event of success they have no plans at present to drill further wells there. Ie they do not intend to become an oil production company on Colter.

Where the interest lies (both for them and RBD) is that in the success case, their licence block becomes a very valuable piece of real estate which can be used as a bargaining chip for any company wanting to develop the field and extract oil from it. Perenco (operator of Wytch Farm) springs to mind as an obvious candidate, though it could be a Major.

It goes without saying that if Colter takes on a significant dollar value as an asset, this increases the value of Corallian as a company, and thus presumably the value of their shares, held by RBD amongst others. And so, correspondingly, their own (RBD's) SP should increase as well.

JP,

"What I now do is if I am lucky enough to buy a share that doubles. A good friend told me that it would be wise that I immediately self half of my shares regardless of who says what and when about the Company and how it is due to sky rocket etc. Selling those half make me feel good knowing that I can then not loose and the remaining half may make me some money."

And you have a friend who gives exceedingly good advice.

I try to do the same thing. The trouble is, it doesn't always work, because the share doesn't always double, and then one may get 'stuck inbetween', and so on, and so forth. Or find oneself at a loss, but remaining 'in' due to 'confirmation bias' and whatever.

But that's the name of the game.

Hurricane is nice! I've managed to 'grab my winnings' already. And intend to do so again. But it does take patience...

Oh Dam.

In my recent post, for 'the Italian Job', read 'the Romanian Job'.

I'm still mixed-up between this board and the UOG one...

ajbennett,

"Any idea what these wells used to flow at?."

Nope. But it's an interesting question. I've tried a bit of research at a cursory level, but haven't found much.

The thing being, the actual bopd is probably quite low. Maybe 200 bbl/day. But that doesn't matter. It's the USA. There are tens of thousands of wells in the area,, drilling/production costs are peanuts, and 200 bpd is still money in the bank. Mom an'Pop stuff, except that RBD has bought into a COMPANY which has shareholders, so it ain't Mom an' Pop pocketing the cash.

There are lots and lots of companies doing this sort of re-appraisal and drilling, but RBD seems to have picked a good one. Because (and this is the point), they're getting on with it quick, and the result so far appears good. Which will interest the locals, who might buy into some shares, whose value will thus increase, and so (hopefully) will ours!

One link I HAVE found:

scruzclimact.pbworks.com/.../Report_Monterey_County_Oil_%26...

But heck, I only bought in here recently, and mostly because of RBD's interest in the Colter well and the Italian Job.

But having some money in oilwells being drilled in the Monterey region? That's just irresistable. The Jefferson Airplane in 1968, etcetera...

luckyman & Jay_85,

It is not a case of "I think they dont want to drill in the tourist season "

THAT IS THE CASE. And has been perfectly well expressed months ago by Corallian, who are 'Operator' regarding the drilling.

RBD purely has an equity share, and is not calling the shots.

BASIC RESEARCH, guys.

Yobbo,

Your post of 20:23 is quite correct. I won't argue with any of it.

Except one tiny weeny bit.

Now I don't want to come on as a 'ramper', nor anything like that. And if you've been her for any amount of time, you'll have seen the way I argue against the 'rampers' who put ridiculous figures about 'oil in place' out on the board, want the make WoS look like a boating-pond full of FPSO's, and so on.

However.

" It is not entirely impossible that what Hurricane has could eventually be between Forties and Clair/Clair ridge in size."

I've still got this nasty sneaky feeling that put together, GLA and GWA, in other words Hurricane's 'little' lease, it could work out to being bigger than both of 'em.

But who cares? What's a billion bbl here or there?

Yobbo,

"Who are laying the rock, Van Oord ? "

At last, a sensible question. Back into my comfort-zone instead of idiocy regarding the SP.

The answer being that personally I don't know. But assuming you've looked at one of the company presentations and turned to the page about operations, the rock-dumper shown is a Van Oord boat. But there again, the 'Spitsbergen' (which was contracted for drilling) is shown for the recompletions, where in fact they were done by the PBLJ. But both TransOcean rigs...

Take that whatever way you see it. But there aren't a million companies able to undertake the work, whichever way you slice the pie.

ifonly1,

"can't see that either."

What, me top-slicing at seven quid?

Smart chap, you're catching on. I'll have sold the lot waay before then.

JP,

"Obviously some silly chat in the last few hours gents. On a different note, what are users thoughts on the Share Price at the point of which the FOIL RNS is released?"

You've been asking some serious questions lately, so desrve at least a serious reply. Though it may be wrong, of course.

I personally anticipate the SP to be way north of where it is now come FoiL. But I wouldn't dare guess a price. And it may well still be a bumpy ride before then.

ifonly1,

"£100 a share come on be serious."

Yes, there are some people taking the p*** here. I'm waiting for £7 and then I'll top-slice to reduce my risk a bit.

That would do nicely! With probably more to come.

I suspect this share to be still a bit of a 'sleeper': maybe today's news will put it on a few radars to attract attention. The speed with which the workovers have been done and set on production is an encouragement that the BoD (who describe the California assets as a 'bonus') made a very good call buying into it. And I suspect the promise of an upcoming new-drill on the play might awake the gamblers' interests stateside, so this could become quite nicely volatile soon.

Genghis,

"If we get a moorings RNS this week and a sailaway RNS, say, a week after missdosh's 11 Aug, the sp could bubble up nicely by the time the school holidays are over."

Let's be careful. I have good reason to believe the 11th Aug target for sea-trials, but let's not be premature about timespan between that and sailaway. Sea-trials are what they say: trials. And the results won't be known until afterwards (plus they probably won't be RNS'd). Maybe modifictions will need doing.

Even so, everything seems to be falling into the projected 'windows', so fine.

""Mattresses", are not the soft bouncy kind, but slabs of concrete 6m x 3m x 0.3m"

And they're not natives of the planet of Squornshela, either.

Imported from elsewhere...

SiPP,

" Normand Installer had changed its destination to Lerwick for tomorrow at midday. Since it's likely not a crew change or for fuel (since it came back to Lerwick last week) my money is on the mooring system being complete and an RNS later this week. Aimhooc."

Or maybe they just forgot their sandwiches again! The boat's been to and from Lerwick a lot over the last few weeks.

But let's not put a damper on things! It's just that a few shipwatchers (myself included) jumped the gun and thought the mooring work was finished about a fortnight ago, and we were wrong.

But it's got to be finished sometime, and there'll be an RNS. And we'll be watching out for start of SURF work, though there won't be an RNS about that. Instead just the 'LSE BB Shipwatchers' Times', which will be rapidly plagiarised by the other sites, of course.

And then of course there's AM sea-trials. There won't be an RNS, but we'll know. And like yourself I now have every good reason to believe Missdosh's heads-up on that one!

It's why although it's annoying to watch the SP wavering around 50, it's causing me no lost sleep that I lost a trading opportunity. I leave that to the 10% mob.

And anyway, it's the dull season. St Leger's day is six weeks away..

Yuyus,

What on earth gives you the idea that Malcy will be invited to Dubai for the AM sea trials?

Fred_Bloggs,

"It is perfectly normal to start and run gas turbines on LNG fuel. In fact, in Finspang, the turbine factory in Sweden, their turbine test beds have LNG as their fuel. "

What you say is undoubtedly true. But (having just checked my atlas) Finspang is about as land-locked a place as one can find in Sweden. And I doubt that even Siemens can get a marine LPG carrier there to test their turbines. Nor has need for such a big volume of LPG just to test-run a couple of them, anyway.