Member Info for adoubleuk

Wellwell,

" What I don’t like is mindless ramping or deramping "

On that I agree with you entirely. And fortunately we don't get much of that here, or the perpetrators get 'taken to task' rapidly!

(Whatever happened to 'Boyporsche' who used to post / ramp on QFI some years ago? Maybe flipping hamburgers now.)

HOWEVER (says he, using big block-caps uppercase stuff).

"I... try and restore balance by thinking negatively-imagined tangible potholes"

I suggest you try a trip down the Gouffre des Trois Dents in the western Pyrenees. Looks nice on the map, a big link-up in a huge system which has taken six decades to explore (still ongoing), but a real killer. I still get nightmares about it. You people in the UK have got potholes on the brain because you can't repair the roads. Why dream up imaginary ones?

" In reality my only current argument is against a. there’s no geological risk with the EPS"

OK, here's a question. Very carefully formulated so you can't squirm out of it, should you choose to reply. (Ricfle does that, never answering anyone's questions but just posing new even more daft ones himself. The latest being why all Ferrari's production from Modena wasn't immediately put in a garage. The simple answer to which being if that had been the case, none of them would be worth anything.)

WHAT is the 'geological risk' with EPS? Are you worried that somehow Dr Trice and his company and all the people who've examined the cuttings-samples and the cores have somehow MISINTERPRETED THE ROCKS THEY'VE DRILLED THROUGH? That it's not Lewisian Gneiss with Dolomitic intrusions and instead might be shale or sandstone?

I'd love to know.

Wellwell,

You're busy painting yourself into a corner, mate.

" It probably matters not in reality"

So let's stop reading now.

"... as any decline in barrel price will be offset by the vast quantity of oil in place"

Rona Ridge is nice. Let's for argument's sake say 7 billion bbl. But on a global scale and with increasing demand (still on the increase) it's just simply a nice big oil-find.

"... although there comes a point where there’s so much oil there will be no one able to pay for it in its entirety."

Says who?The oil's already there... And people will always pay for what they can't do without, until the entire 'system' comes crumbling down, that is. And as shareholders, what do we care about that, anyway? All I want is for my Hurricane shares to make me some money. The distant future is by definition someone else's problem.

BNB,

" Hurricane will effectively imo eventually be valued on 2 things 1. What it is worth to one of the major oil companies based on how many barrels they think they can extract , and 2 if there are any other oil companies that may want it or want to push up the price . "

Yes. And here, by saying yes, I don't want it to appear like two BB posters 'agreeing' with each other, but just interested in the points raised.

Because I see what appears to me to be an elephant in the room when one refers to well thought-out posts from people like Dspp and sometimes Wellwell. (As distinct from Ricfle who I consider like Jabba the Hutt, so I sometimes do battle with him on basic principles.) I read his (Dspp's) stuff with interest, but rarely question for the Simple reason he's into Reservoir Engineering (ie sitting in an office close to the bigwigs) and I'm a Drilling bloke (sitting in an office out on the wellsite but partying with the bigwigs when I get back to town.)

Introducing my Jumbo question... Or rather more than one, plus some personal flippant comments...

Since when has the SP (or the Mcap) of an oil company had a direct linear link to its reserves / resources in place? Can examples be found?

What was last year's fundraising about? Was it to finance EPS or not? Is there some sort of direct relationship between the cost of EPS and the returns expected FROM JUST EPS?

I have my doubts about this, though they stem from some very old-fashioned sort of thinking. Try early railroad investors in the USA. Did they put their money in based on profits that might be made from selling train tickets to people who would otherwise be heading west in wagon-trains, but would transfer to rail just because it would be more comfortable? Of course not. They invested because they knew the existance of the railroad would expand the market.

Same goes for canals in the UK in the 19th century.

Though there the parallel ends, because the opening-up of Fractured Basement WoS won't create any new markets. But it will certainly help sustain one to which there is so far no viable alternative and unlikely to be one in any of our lifetimes. And which relies upon the extraction of natural hydrocarbons. Without oil, sign off now and go live in a tree. Yr computer (and the internet) relies on it. Unless you have a wooden computer.

In poker, this is described in a technical term known as 'implied odds'. Where (one's figuring this out at lightning speed in one's own head), it's not just how much you can obtain off your opponent (s) NOW, but how much you can make later by NOT forcing them to fold RIGHT NOW. But of course you HAVE TO BE holding an unbeatable hand to do this. Or if not, taking the loss is manageable.

Elon Musk is fully aware of this principle, and that's how Tesla's SP remains so high while the hand is unwinnable.

Not so (imho) with Hurricane.

In my post on this subject early today I mentioned it might be the only one you'd see from me. But now much later (I keep some odd hours!) have reconsidered, and reckon I only half-answered Pijoe's quite reasonable question. So adding this as well.

The question (or part of it).

""to me it is interesting the testing programme had high flow rate first...local oil charge and pressure would have been at a max ..surely a sustained flow first for some time"

Yes, in a 'normal' testing program, one would go in that order. Low-flow, then high flow, then max. But having looked a bit more, this hasn't been quite what would be called 'normal', where everything is done sequentially, but in a continuous way.

It's the last part, the 'continuous' which hasn't been normal. If I understand properly (remember, I'm not invested in UKOG, so haven't followed the story closely at all), HH1 was initially tested a couple of years ago, but simply to see if it would produce.

Then came the more recent campain, starting a couple of months back, with a re-entry, and new cleanup and establishment of some sort of steady flow. Then a hiatus of two or three weeks, followed by the two latest tests.

So in fact the 'sequence' part of things has been followed 'normally'. I note that the latest testing was billed as 'high-rate flow testing', so what's been done is what it says on the can. There was no re-start at low rates (because that had already been done), so they went straight to high-rate, and then max.

I can only assume that the hiatus was taken up with modifying pump equipment parameters and so on, to enable the shift from 'low-flow' to 'high'. I don't know. As I say, haven't been following closely.

Objectively, I think I can say this, without any fears of appearing judgemental nor biased. The sequence has been followed as per planned. And the results published in RNS, though only to the very limited extent one would expect. But as someone else has pointed out, obtaining full test data is like pulling hen's teeth, and can't be expected in an RNS because 99% of people wouldn't understand it anyway. Not quite 'industrial espionage', but close to it.

OK, this time I WILL sign off, but with a further caveat. My own well-testing experiences have either been with things which flow at thousands of bbl/day, scare the living bejesus out of you, and you daren't even risk opening up to 'max'. Or alternatively total dusters where you try to test and it flows zilch. At which point some a**hole from management suggests you run diesel to the flare, just to keep the SP up before everyone bails out. Which one refuses to do and packs one's bags immediately, not wishing to be a partner in such crime.

UKOG falls into neither of these categories, so it's up to you shareholders to make your own choices!

GLA

The pictures of the lifeboats being tested are fine, and good 'shipwatching trivia'. But that's just two of 'em. The other two can't be tested yet, because I don't think they'd survive freefall onto the quayside, and it'd cause a bit of a mess to clear up.

So first thing they're going to have to do is cast off and turn the AM around! Now whether they'll do this and then tie up again to test the other lifeboats, I haven't a clue. Quite possibly not. Maybe that test can be delayed until later. I strongly suspect the two tested lifeboats provide quite enough capacity requirement for the PoB at present and during sea trials. But as I say, I don't personally know how these things proceed.

But I do thinks it's safe to assume that all testing prior to DDW signing the AM over to Bluewater again isn't going to be just a couple of days' work.

Ricfle,

Against my better judgement, I'm going to answer you.

"If you did not think the SP was undervalued, why did you invest?
If you just intend to passively watch the SP why do you stay invested, or bother watching?"

I could go and order the latest Ferrari today, and when it's delivered, put it in an air-conditioned garage and let it sit for a few years. Then take it out and sell it for twice what I paid, if not more. Or at least, that's been the case for the last few decades. What's changed? Nothing, except the perceived market value. How much someone's prepared to pay for the car.

You yourself seem to be forgetting something. The redeemable value of one ordinary Hurricane share is zero point one pee. I had to pay a lot more than that when I first started buying some: Now the shares are 'valued' at about 500 times their 'book value', and a lot more than I originally paid.

But the shares haven't in some way 'changed'. In fact I've been even more 'passive' than I'd have to be with a Ferrari in a garage. I haven't had to go check that the air-conditioning was OK or occasionally pump up the shares' tyres. In fact the only time I get 'actively' involved is when I trade the things, because their 'value' has changed, somehow. And even that's no great physical hardship, really, because I can do so with just a few minutes at amy computer keyboard.

It's a sort of magic, really. Because if you think about it, in this digital ages my shares don't really exist at all, other than in the form of electrons whizzing around computer memory chips.

It's not that I thought the shares were 'undervalued' when I bought them. Instead it's that I believed their value would change in the future, and to my benefit. Which has so far been the case, and I hope (and believe) it will continue that way. (Fingers crossed.) The SP is what the SP is. Saying today's SP is 'undervalued' is meaningless and salesman-talk. Saying (or believing) that something might be worth more at some time in the future (which has yet to happen) is a different way of looking at things.

So back to Biffa's point, and my agreement with him. Malcy 'puts a value' of over a quid on a HUR share. But that's sometime in the future, maybe, and he doesn't specify when. My own belief is that the SP might reach that point (or 'value') fairly soon, hopefully a matter of months, now. But if something suddenly gives me the impression that figure won't be reached for another ten years, I'll sell the lot tomorrow at 50p a shot and go play poker with it instead.

Wellwell,

" DSPP’s valuations work I’m sure for smaller pools but I would counter that as the size of the reservoirs increase to the scale we have with Hurricane then the per barrel dollar value will decrease. HUR will effectively be valued at the market rate for only some but not all of its oil in other words."

That's a very interesting theory. In fact it's a proposition I don't think I've ever heard of before. Can you quote some references to works where it's explained in greater depth, or alternatively cite some instances where it's been shown to be the case?

Biffa,

"Going back to Malcy's £1 prediction. For this to have any real meaning we need to know at what stage in HUR's development is the £1 per share valuation applicable. Is it at FOIL for example, or at another stage in HUR's future development ?"

Precisely! This is something which I too can't help questioning. It doesn't just apply to Malcy's 'prediction', but 'valuations' by Edison and others. Because their statements inevitably lead to people saying the shares are 'undervalued' (a favorite ramper's term), and poor old PI's thinking that if the SP should be a quid, why isn't it a quid RIGHT NOW?

An analogy might be general soothsayers and prophets of doom. Someone saying 'the world is going to end' is probably quite correct, on the basis of current scientific knowledge. The fact that it might be in a few billion years' time and that almost certainly the human race won't be around to see it is irrelevent. But the case of someone claiming that the end of the world will happen next Tuesday, and then it doesn't, is a completely different kettle of fish altogether.

I think this is why it's far more important to just watch the ongoing SP and be aware of any events which may cause it to rise or fall, rather than blindly listen to pundits who claim to be 'experts' when in fact their only real expertise is in the art of being a pundit.

Pijoe,

"to me it is interesting the testing programme had high flow rate first...local oil charge and pressure would have been at a max ..surely a sustained flow first for some time..then shut in to restore down hole pressure, then more open choke to establish max flow...i am not a resi expert..would welcome comment from proper oil field types...(such as AD)"

And following your sms, here I am!

But for the benefit of other posters here, I must make one or two disclaimers first. One being that I'm not a 'testing expert': my speciality is drilling, completion, and workover. However that has led me to be involved in a number of well tests of both long and short duration, so I know what they're about. Secondly, I don't hold any UKOG shares, and have only followed the Horse Hill story sporadically. But have read RNS's recently, and sometimes look at this BB because it's gained a certain 'notoriety' on other O&G BB's!

In regard to your question.

In general terms, your interpretation is correct. But the information given in RNS is sparse, and really it's near impossible to draw any conclusions without seeing the flowing and shut-in pressure charts. Three immediate questions spring to mind. (a) what data determined the initial flowing period? (b) What was the pressure build-up rate during shutin, and was it a constant curve or what? (c) What did the flowing wellhead pressure curve look like when establishing max flow, and again what determined the test duration?

It must not be forgotten that the flow figures quoted use the phrase 'implied equivalent' barrels per day, as neither test even approached 24 hours' duration. So they must be treated with caution.

Further questions arise regarding choke sizes, and whether they were changed during these tests.

As an important aside, it is a common misunderstanding amongst 'laymen' that during any well test, it is simply the flow figures that 'count'. Especially if the flowing periods were of short duration. The data acquired during shutin are equally, if not more important, to evaluate the reservoir as a whole (and by implication its commerciability or no) rather than simply the performance of the particular well under test.

There is another important thing regarding the RNS's wording about the 'extended test', and that's the word 'optimise' a stable sustained flow rate. Optimising something DOES NOT necessarily mean 'increase', and most certainly does not mean 'maximise'.

That's it for now as I'm here by invitation only and probably won't post again. Other than to note that a few days ago, the thing that came in on a truck was part of a BOP, though only one or two people wrote to say so. It was a bog standard Cameron Type 'U' 5000psi dual-gate ram preventer, and the associated Koomey hydraulic accumulator / control unit.

GLA

Robbie

"Can I order a large ISHLS (in AM colours)?"

I'll tell you the truth.

I was sitting on the terrace of a riverside bar in the French town where I live, trying to relax and enjoying the view of the town, but nevertheless hit my phone and the BB to see what was happening. And happened it had! Wessexmario had posted about the AIS!

It brought a great grin to my face, and believe me, there's nothing better than sitting by the riverside and feeling happy. Most other people don't have such luxuries to enjoy. Though mind you, it's a cheap bar in a non-tourist town. But with a great view on a 13th-century castle, so it'll do.

And it was at that point I thought up the acronym. But it's clumsy for now, and not 'flashy' enough.

But yes, a tee-shirt for the 'Shipwatchers'? But maybe a better acronym, as well. Yeah, why not?

All suggestions welcomed. Maybe we should do it. Questions about belling the cat can come later.

JP,

"The 'spies' and 'shipwatching since the 'Bismark' reminds me a bit of Charlie Sheen in Wall Street when he turns up on his motorcycle at the airfield late to give the impression he wanted to speak to Larry Wildman and then managed to find out the plane's destination and advise Gordon Gekko!"

I (for some reason) have never seen that film. A lapse on my part, I know.

But nevertheless (and from a personal point of view) I'm 'doing from a distance' something similar. Because in the (now distant, ie more than ten years ago) I was inadvertantly involved in a total 'scam' involving an oilfield company. No names, no packdrill. AIM-listed, and still is. But I was just a 'grunt in the field'. Unbeknown to myself, while the well we were drilling was being touted (in the FT and financial BB's) as being the greatest thing since sliced bread, we knew it was a duster. And it was to the point that (afterwards) I couldn't understand why some pension fund people hadn't gone into the oilfield bars of the local town and started buying the drinks... To get the truth.

Here (fortunately) the opposite seems to be applying. (Plus also times have changed.) There hasn't been any hype. News is kept quiet, and technical, and a lot of it requires technical understanding to absorb. And (personally I consider this important), the company has imposed a 'loose lips sink ships' attitude with its own people, contractors, and so on.

The bottom line being, they too want to 'monetise' this thing, and we too want to make money! But only when every thing's been proved.

Some people put their money into lemons. But heck, there's a market for lemons, as well! If you want to make lemonade. But never believe you can make high-quality whisky out of lemons.

Certain people on here (particularly the 'oil-people') are more into high-quality whisky than lemonade. As is indeed, the company CEO, by his own admission. So we just continue to keep track of how the barley is growing... On fields owned by the company, and through a still (already paid for) by the company and due shortly to come into operation. Plus the market for the end product is already guaranteed.

This is why this is THE 'oilman's oil-share'. And the only downside being nobody trusts oilmen any more. But there are still one or three honest ones about. And I believe Dr Trice (CEO of Hurricane Energy) to be one of them.

I have a friend who is a professional artist: three or four of his works are on my walls. and he once said

""I distrust mankind because I reckon I'm one of the best of them, and I know what I'm like."

(BTW, check http://www.mynall.co.uk )

Hence going slow (though heck, things are going fast now!) , not selling out quick to a cheap bidder, hence EPS and the whole nine yards...

A masterpiece takes time.

Wellwell,

"I’m also just enjoying our normal jousts whilst I kill time at the airport! ;/)"

OK, taken as read. Plus I was writing in the comfort of what I call home, and not in the hell of an airport. Have a safe flight, wherever it is you're going to.

Wellwell,

"Maybe 48v? What about 400 or 600 three phase? Or why bother guessing if you have no way of verifying?"

OK. Mea culpa. No point in guessing. But I don't give a dam, neither.

Instead, try this for size.

An eff-off big power cable, approx two inches in diameter. But the sort of thing you find in industrial places carrying either 480 three phase or sometimes 750 DC. But it doesn't matter, and as I say, don't care. It explains the odd AIS signals we've seen.

(Though to give him his due, WWN was partially correct about 'GPS drift', which explains the 10 meter plus or minus we see every other day.)

Who rattled your cage, anyway? Or ar you worried that Bernstein might think that a power cable draped around the AIS stanchion might be price-sensitive and somehow you didn't get news to him about it before the closing bell?

As a further aside, somewhat off-topic (the weekend's arrived!) but pertinent to lots of things, nevertheless.

The heat seems to have got to a lot of people over the last week, and the temperature on this BB has sometimes risen accordingly. But it's brought some good results as well. Like taking me to looking at the UKOG board for light (but highly amusing!) entertainment. Because they have their own 'spies' out, counting tankers, equipment going in and out, etcetera. And of course I almost fell off my chair when someone posted a link to a picture of a truck carrying part of a BOP (a Cameron Type 'U' 5000psi dual-gate as I identified it) plus Koomey hydraulic BOP control / accumulator unit on its skid, but said it was a 'New Big Pump'!

Don't get me wrong. I'm neither ramping / deramping UKOG, having no interest in it other than passing technological (and sociological) curiousity. But that BB is a hoot!

Better-caliber people here.

Typo: 480 volt.

JP,

" how do you find out this information!!!!?!?!?"

Never underestimate the flexibility of the long-reaching tentacle-like arms of the ISHLS! (A spur-of-the-moment acronym invented, standing for the International Society of Hurricane Lunatic Shipwatchers. At this rate we ought to get some tee-shirts printed.)

I have seen Wessex's evidence and can corroborate it. And also agree with his analysis. A hefty great power-cable (maybe 48 volt?) using the five-foot-high mounting on which the AIS and its junction box are mounted as a 'drape-point' can play hell with the signal. And when the power's switched on or off can quite reasonably make the AIS receiver system think that the boat's suddenly gone uptown for a pint.

You ain't seen nothing yet. That boat's movements are going to be the most-watched thing since the Bismark. Not just when she gets to Rotterdam, but maybe also in the Med if some pilots from Royal Air Morocco are prepared to play the game...

PS: Normand Vision still loading up more stuff at Nigg, Deep Explorer still with Shell, and (just for Ricfle!), PBLJ still doing her own thing for Zennor.

chrishutch,

"Did every see the elevator pitches on Voxmarkets?"

No, I didn't, for one! What was it about? Do you have a link?

(And what's an 'elevator pitch', anyway? Sounds a bit of a technical thing like the slope on an excalator (no Jeremy Clarkson references intended!), but it can't be that.)

Sensible,

"The word "banned", which means to prohibit, is not sensationalist : Halifax and other banks won't allow you to purchase shares! "

One way or another, it seems to be bad PR for the company, even if it's none of their doing. And if it's now in the hands of the FCA to sort out, and it being the holiday season, it might take a while to sort out.

I've only personally found out about this 'problem' very recently and via this BB. Because it hasn't actually impacted me at all. My share trading is done through Credit Agricole, which is of course a major European (French) retail bank. And I was able to buy some RBD (I've only recently bought in here) with no hassle at all. It just took five minutes on the internet.

I feel that anyone who's already in here (maybe via a broker other than Halifax or Lloyds) but who also has an account with either of those two institutions should actively lobby them to put their house in order. 'Misinterpretation' of new rules which everyone else seems to understand perfectly well reflects badly on them, but some people may not see it that way and instead be suspicious of RBD who has become a 'victim' of such misjudgement.

So shake 'em up a bit!

SiPP,

"TW's Bearcast today in relation to MGW was disgraceful"

Unfortunately I couldn't listen to it, because it's subscriber-only: I only get Sh***prophet notifications which allows some limited access for free.

But if (from the written précis) TW was berating not just Malcy but also Vox, ZaK M, and so on, it sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black, because essentially the whole lot of 'em (TW included) are in the same line of business.

I still watch such things (when available), but ensuring that I'm eating something very salty while doing so. And even then, when it's someone like Dr T being interviewed I'm now generally not so interested in what he has to say (which one can usually find our beforehand from other sources) but more the way it's expressed!

Mr Jim,

" Everyone will know about HUR on FOIL"

This is something which I sometimes think about during odd idle moments!

It's true that for now Hurricane might be called 'the greatest little oil company you've never heard of'. I remain quite staggered by the number of oilfield contacts I have (they are many) who' don't know anything about the company or what they're doing. Or at least, until I've told 'em about it. It's uncanny, if you think about it. A new play not exploited to date in UK waters (though known worldwide), a record-breaking fundraise, a BoD with the best credentials you could think of, a huge discovery (s), etc., you'd expect it to be the ongoing talk of the town. But it isn't.

I hope this will change at FoiL, of course, but wonder exactly how this will happen. Will there be a 'media blitz', will Dr T appear on the TV news, will someone mention in parliament that a massive new strategic energy resource for the country just come online, or will the company just continue playing things low-key?

Once again, it's one of those things where I guess we'll just have to wait and see...