Member Info for adoubleuk

Ricfle,

"Yet the drilling date was moved to after the tourist season?"

I have mentioned this before here, but you probably chose to ignore my message as you're averse to facts.

Corallian submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment document to the govt last December. (This can be downloaded from their site.) Within it is discussion of timings. The well was to be drilled either in the spring or after the summer tourist season., the decision to be based on technical readiness and other factors.

So the move to 'after the summer' is not a 'change' in any way.

Genghis,

"The order of the drills is bcos of local sensitivities ; drilling of the coast of Bournemouth in tourist season was going to be problematical, so Colter/Wick sequence reversed."

Yes, there is that, as well. I was going to mention it, but my post was getting long enough already!

The timing takes up a lot of Corallian's EIA presented to the govt at the back end of last year. Summertime was ipso facto ruled out for Colter. Wick has no things like 'tourist season' entering into the equation. But the further 'out of season' Colter is, the better. Just another factor. But one that Corallian has to take into account. Just mention the word 'oil rig' anywhere south of the Watford Gap and the next thing you get is people lying in the road and supergluing themselves to lorries.

Plus there's a silly little upside I can't help thinking about. People might actively LIKE seeing the lights twinkling in the derrick as the winter nights draw in! Plus the chippies by Poole harbour will appreciate the extra trade from the truckers bringing equipment to load on the supply-boats!

I doubt if Corallian have tought about that, but every little counts.

The drilling sequence is fine.

Ricfle,

" The UK drills are being executed in the wrong order, with the risky "exploration" well first, against their appraisal strategy. I do not understand why RBD have allowed this to happen, no doubt your "research" will inform us all."

This is my personal opinion regarding your above comments.

Despite holding a seat on the Corallian BoD due to their investment, my understanding is that it is Corallian as 'operator' who will be 'calling the shots' in regard to Wick and Colter. This will include the drilling sequence.

I have very good reasons for thinking that the rig to be used for the two wells will be the Ensco 101, currently drilling in the N.Sea. There's another possibility, the Ensco 70, warm-stacked on Teeside, but my money's on the 101. From a logistical point of view, mobilisation for the rig to Wick is just a 'short hop', thus much cheaper. When Wick's drilled, then the rig goes south to Colter. Where it's in completely sheltered waters, and once operations are completed can probably remain in the vicinity over winter at Ensco's discretion, away from the N.Sea. Unless it has a new contract to go to, but then the move is Enco's problem, not Corallian's.

Doing such logistics the otherway around would be bluntly speaking, stupid. Potentially more hazardous and far more liable to weather-related delays.

Corallian are going to drill both wells anyway. So the sequence will be based upon things like cost, safety, and other things. If Wick turns out to be a duster, they're still going to do Colter. Regardless of what the Wick result may or may have on their and Reabold's SP. Their thinking will be dictated by technical and cost considerations, not the fortunes or otherwise of spread-bettors.

Hello Ricfle,

I' was terribly busy all last night, got to bed at ten this morning, and spent most of my day there, so have missed out on what exciting BB this has suddenly become.

And just now playing catchup.

"I personally would give the California well a COS of between 80 to 90%."

Can you enlighten us (technically) on how you get those figures, please?

I'm tempted to ask on what basis you're qualified to give COS figures for a new oilwell anyway, but you don't like answering questions normally so two questions might be one too many.

In fact I don't really expect you to answer the first one, either. But one can always live in hope. Pigs might learn to fly someday.

Cebo,

"Frequency of tankers will tell very little unless you know how many barrels has been unloaded"

Quite agree. But 'furtling around' here and there trying to get more detail on the Aoka Mizu's tech specs I came upon a little nugget. And unfortunately (stupidly) didn't bookmark the page, so can't pass on the reference. But it was under a term I'd never heard of before, but knowing your line of business, maybe you have. And that term was 'offload package size', with a figure given in thousands of barrels. (Or rather a multiple of thousands! :-)) ) Plus added to that was offload volume times (again in thousands of bbl / hr).

And sorry, no, I'm not going to quote the figures here, because although I've got 'em in my head, I don't have the reference to hand, and my memory could be wrong. But I've got plenty of time before I need to re-find the reference: a few months.

But here's the thing. I'm not going to teach my grandmother to suck eggs. But you know as well as I do that offload is dynamic and related to volume more than time. The tanker doesn't do some sort of 'rounds' on a set schedule, sometimes taking on 100,000 bbl, another time 400,000. It's not a milk-truck going round dairy farms, after all. And those volumes are related to 'offload package size'. And furthermore, those tanker skippers DO reset their draught readings on AIS. And tanker draught is directly proportional to load volume, unlike that of the FPSO.

Plus we know thet it'll be BP doing the tanker side of things, and we can be pretty dam sure they'll be the same ones turning up on your doorstep for the churns!!!

And anyway, you know perfectly well that this is all under discussion elsewhere already, and via the shipwatchers' PM underground grapevine.

Why discuss it here?

Sure, they'll be rough figures only, especially at the start. But rough figures are better than none at all.

(Continued)

(If anyone's still bothering to read my lengthy prose, that is. But after my all-nighter, keyboard-bashing is almost autopilot.)

SXX,

I suspect that behind your question about the probable 'news lull', you have certain thoughts, and I also suspect they're the same as some thoughts I've also had.

During the hiatus (or two), how will the market react? What will the SP do? And of course by inference, (unless one's a died-in-the-wool LTH, how should I (or you, or others) react to that reaction?

To which I have not hard answer, because it's future (ie speculative) territory. But also, it's what makes your question interesting, because instead of wondering if BP might shell out a fiver a share in a year's time, or if the company might pay a dividend, this stuff's just months away, like Brexit. So worthy of thinking about, discussion and speculation (unlike Brexit.) Plus this BB has no shortage of people who enjoy speculative discussions!

I have only one particular thought so far, and it's personal opinion, but maybe will help get the ball rolling. I think that during the 'news lull (s)' the big money will sit tight. In fact that seems obvious. But on the retail side (as characterised by BB's like this) we'll see the derampers appearing, claiming that every day without news is indicative of some sort of calamity like a pig getting stuck in a flowline or the reservoir having suddenly depleted itself. All for the usual trading reasons, trying to provoke fear and uncertainty.

Anyway, that's just one thought, and I'm getting tired of typing.

Thanks for posting though, SXX. I think it's an interesting topic you've raised.

SXX,

"Is it too simplistic to suggest that there may be a lull in news events post AM arrival/successful buoy hookup at Lancaster?"

Strange nobody else has picked up on your post. I've been in bed most of the day having been up all last night writing an article for a magazine with deadline 09:30, so I've only just now read it. And the points you've raised seem far more pertinent and 'real' than imagining what the SP might be in a year's time.

I don't think your (quoted) supposition is simplistic at all. In fact my personal opinion is that such a 'news lull' is exactly what will occur. Because what will there be to report? How many coffee's the AM's skipper has had that day? That a bearing was found to need replacing on a skimmer in the production train during tests prior to opening the first well? Nope.

There will certainly be an RNS telling us that the FPSO has latched to the buoy. And (most likely in the same RNS) that the testing / commissioning phase has been entered.

The next RNS will be announcement of First Oil. Between the two, what? Maybe just some corporate stuff.

The second (FoiL) RNS poses a bit of a conundrum, though. Relating to as to exactly what constitutes 'First Oil'. (And this of course relates directly to Reverandy's sweepstake.) I know for a fact that a few people have contacted Hurricane IR about how 'First Oil' is defined, but the responses have been coy and guarded. Because the thing is, how can the entire production system be 'commissioned' (or at least in the 'final phases' of that process) without a well having been opened up and there's oil flowing through the train?

But again, that's been discussed here in the past. We'll see it. Or someone will. Even if it's in the 'bleak midwinter' WoS, the sky's got to clear sometimes. And you simply can't hide a flame on top of the flare-stack.

But then what, after the FoiL RNS? Probably another 'lull' until first offload onto the shuttle tanker. Now various shipwatchers have discussed this amongst themselves off-board, and on arrival of the tanker we'll have a pretty good idea about how much oil volume has been flowed. But again, that probably won't indicate much, because during 'shake-down' there will almost certainly be glitches and delays, and don't forget the weather.

But again (personal opinion only), I don't expect any news between FoiL and first offload.

(I'm going to continue on a new page before running out of space.)

Wessex,

"I'm confident Sagittarius has nothing to do with us. So much so I'll even bet a pint on it."

Me too.

But I doubt there'll be any takers on the wager.

Tell you what, though. If you come to Rotterdam when the AM gets there, I'll buy you a pint. So long as you promise to buy one for me as well.

Pecten,

"Could one the boards most learned friends, guide me to info regarding which fields worldwide are driven by solution gas drive? And if anyone knows, what is the drive mechanism at Shah Deniz?"

I noted your question, and although I don't consider myself one of this board's most 'learned' people (because that would be immodest) I remain one of those they call 'oilies', much as I dislike that term...

But your question appears rather specific, in regard to 'solution gas drive', and that sounds a bit different from gas-cap drive (which is very commonplace worldwide, as you almost certainly already know). So not being a petrophysicist by professional 'speciality', thought it best not to answer what is obviously a genuine question.

Furthermore I admit to never having even heard of the Shah Deniz field! Or rather, I thought I hadn't, but having checked it out wrongopedia I realise I have read about it from time to time in literature relating to the Caspian, which has an interesting history (!). But again, that's an oil region I'm quite unfamiliar with in a 'hands-on' sense, so it would be wrong for me to comment on it.

So sorry, but unable to help.

Ifonly1

reverting to the comment which appears to have made you so unpopular recently:

" kicking myself for not selling the other week when i it went blue for me,and then buying back cheaper."

You took a lot of flak for that. Which personally I thought was rather unwarrented because I'd been having the same sort of thoughts myself.

But then I reconsidered those thoughts. Because essentially (unlike yourself who seemingly bought in at a price near the recent high), I didn't. In fact this share has been nothing but 'blue' for me over the time involved.

However, I don't want to gloat. Instead I'd just suggest you look at the three-year SP chart. Focus on the recent 'high'. Would it really have been worth the hassle and heartache of trading?

Just give it a few more weeks...

BNB,

" the peeps on Nano ( Nano dog ) should really know better . worth checking out . imo P&D across there big time "

You're pretty new here, but can tell you're sharp and not afraid of a fight.

'The peeps on NANO'. Check a few names. Then take a look at the BB of an outfit called LEAF. Then if you spot any similarities, check that poster's history. Then read some of the posts he made here before he was 'rumbled'.

Then check out the (ongoing for at least two years) rumblings and mutterings here about a certain major shareholder. It'll become clearer. Not just who the 'derampers' are, but why, and their modus operandi.

It's kind of fun.

IJWT,

"In 8-10 weeks we should know if the taps work and another 3 months or so how the reservoir does or doesn't perform."

I'm not sure what you mean about the 'taps working'. Would you like to elucidate, because it sounds like some sort of binary 'yes / no' thing, and I can't personally see anything of that description happening in the next three months.

But although I vaguely agree with the rest of your phrase, I still think your wording is a bit wrong, and smacks slightly of the 'binary' initial phase of EPS that the resident derampers here like to promote, and which is misleading.

I know this might sound like splitting hairs, and I know that the usual people will sneer at me for writing this, but here I go regardless.

There is an 'experimental' facet to the initial part of EPS, yes. The company has told us that over and over again. But the 'experiment' is NOT to see ' how the reservoir does or doesn't perform.' That makes it sound like letting a white laboratory-rat loose in your bathroom and seeing if it jumps into the tub or instead hides behind the laundry-basket. That would (scientifically-speaking) be a pretty stupid sort of experiment, from which very few conclusions could be drawn. And if repeated might produce a completely different result, such as the rat climbing the curtain, dropping into the washbasin, and eating the soap from the soapdish. And the next time just curling up into a ball on the floor and going to sleep. Nope, a pretty stupid experiment.

EPS won't be that. Instead, it is to see how closely the reservoir CONFORMS to the 'modelled behaviour' predicted, based upon data collected from well-test (performed at great expense) and subsequently analysed by numerous people and computers (also at great expense). So to return to the rat analogy, you've determined that the animal likes to eat soap. So the interesting experiment is watching (once let loose in the bathroom) the rat finding the soap-dish. How long it takes to do so. And which path it takes. Then (as the experimenter) you maybe fix a sort of ladder to the washbasin and see how long it takes for the rat to use that, instead of climbing the curtain. And THEN, you change the spacing of the rungs on the ladder so the soap-hungry rat can climb faster....

Etcetera.

Some people with half a billion quid to spare have been prepared to foot the bill for an experiment like that. And you can bet your last dollar that they're pretty sure that the rat involved is one of the soap-eating kind, not one which will curl up and go to sleep on the bathmat.

Ricfle,

"It is irrelevant what Dr T whats to do regarding exploration, after a successful sale of Hurricane he would be able to do whatever he pleased."

This is only a matter of personal opinion, but it's my belief that what would please Dr Trice the most is continuing doing what he's doing now. Hunting new Fractured Basement reservoirs, and proving them up. Some people actually like their work. Especially certain sorts of oilmen. Look at the photos of the man standing in front of the flare giving a big 'thumbs up'. I don't think hes got that grin on his face because the photographer asked him to say 'cheese'.

Ah, that's a nice start to the day!

The AM has cast off, turned around, and is now back at quayside, but facing in the other direction. Plus her AIS 'silhouette' is now looking correct. So this goes back to a few posts from yesterday (or was it the day before?) Now they can test-launch the other two lifeboats without them falling on some stevedore's head...

JK,

"Suspect we're at cross purposes?"

Yes, you're probably right. Sort of seeing roughly the same thing but from a slightly different angle. And I don't disagree with anything you say in your post. In that it discounts the idea of a 100% 'takeover' of Hurricane, and essentially the 'old company' ceasing to exist except in name only, as a 'trading entity'. Replacement (or complete dissolution) of the BoD, etc. That I just can't see happening.

However, I don't see why a 'special dividend' becomes some sort of essential in all this, should things pan out in such a way. Because such a scenario would logically dictate a considerable increase in the share value at some point in the proceedings, and also it seems to be not illogical to suppose that given the hugely increased Mcap of the company that they'll have made their proposed move up-market. So the shareholders (mainly institutions, but also longterm PI's) would end up holding some reasonably blue-chip shares, worth (presumably) a lot more than they are now.

So they're left with a choice. Do they want to hold their shares, or do they want cash? If they want cash, well, they'll have to sell some shares. And by that time, and given such a scenario, there'll certainly be some buyers.

And I don't think Kerogen will want a 'cash return' anyway. They represent just part of a wedge in the door of people who want control over certain oilfields, not necessarily the money. You can print money. You can't print oil.

Already I'm starting to express myself badly. It's late. So I'll try a different tack.

I'm invested in an oil explorer. Who has said expressly that they have no desire to become an oil 'producer' company. It's oil producing companies which pay dividends, not explorers. But also oil explorers aren't banks. It's the business of banks to give out cash, not oil explorers. So why should Hurricane give cash to anyone? They're not called the 'Magic Christian Company' (if you remember that old film).

You want cash? Sell some shares. It's as simple as that. 'Increasing shareholder value' means increasing the value of the shares those shareholders actually hold, to my mind. Not handing out cash willy-nilly.

JK,

"So you see full company takover as the only likely outcome?"

No. And this is a view I've stated many times before, even if it seems to be 'unpopular' by many. Complete takeover is many a PI's dream, because it usually means their shares multiplying in value considerably, at which point they happily take their money and run to the bank / Porsche dealer / casino, or whatever. And thus it's a scenario encouraged by 'rampers' of current SP valuations.

But No. I simply don't see it. The CEO has stated many times (including on-camera) that in the not-too-distant-future, part of his company's strategy is to 'monetise', which I take to mean 'selling' some assets. Which is great. Because there will be buyers, for sure. But they'll want to buy the merchandise, not the market-stall itself, the white van, and the signage.

This will give Hurricane (Dr Trice's company) a load of money, with which they can go and explore other ignored FB plays elsewhere, and repeat the process. Which is what the man likes doing.

Don't just take my word for it, go back into the records. It's there.

But again, IJWT says

"Not sure there is any certainty to the outcome for HUR and not even necessarily HUR who will be the deciding party."

This is also true. There could be some sort of 'hostile' takeover attempt. And that COULD be very interesting (and profitable to the PI indeed ) if the Chinese become involved. Plus that 'Chinese connection' already exists in the form of Kerogen.

Why are you asking me? I don't know. All the above is just personal opinion.

Biffa,

" I just can't see any money being returned to shareholders in the form of a one-time special dividend payment. "

Nor can I.

"Any suggestion by the BOD of returning "the bulk of the cash" is frankly very worrying. I'm sure they would agree with that too."

Don't see that, neither.

Anyone investing in HUR with either of those two scenarios running through their head is living in cloud-cuckoo land. In my opinion.

"Do you not think that post was rather offensive for no good reason? I do"

I don't. Or rather, it was offensive and deliberately so, but couched in a language which would slip by the censors. But in one of his earlier posts Mrs Ricfle alluded to me as being an idiot, which I am not.

So yes, within the constraints imposed by internet protocols, I figuratively punched him on the nose. And will do so again if necessary. And kick him once he's down, just for good measure.

I can put up with his presence on the HUR BB where he's just considered a boring pest. But coming in here and finding he's stinking up the room with his flatulance is a shame, so I'll deal with it pdq, in my own inimitable way.

It seems to me there are some other people here who've caught onto the stink already.

Ricfle knows nothing about oilwell drilling, and he's an addicted spread-bettor, hence his cropping up left right and centre asking which way the SP's going to move. Period. Just noise from the slot-machines in the background. Totally ignorable.

pijoe,

"Roll on Coulter drill I say..."

1 Why do you and a lot of other people keep spelling it wrong? It's called Colter. Are Missdosh and myself the only ones who went to decent schools? (!!!! :-)) )

But yeah, Colter will be very interesting. But so will be Wick. Nothing like a good ol' bit of N.Sea exploration to see what the oldtimers missed out on. At zero risk to we shareholders in RBD if both turn out dry (which I feel is unlikely) because the hit that might cause to Corallian wouldn't be proportionally passed over. Though I suspect our CEO's might drop Corallian like a hot brick should that happen. I'd vote for it.

2 I think California is being slowplayed. No figures coming out yet. Suspect they'll be low. But cashflow, kiddies.

3 Romania looks like the real deal.

Exceedingly rare to see a sort of win-win cropping up on AIM. On which subject, keep the posts coming, fellow contributors! (Even Ricfle). Don't forget that left-hand column on this site headed 'recent posts'. OK some days it's just clogged up with Udog. But nevertheless it attracts attention, and thereby maybe some buyers.

Brooko19,

"And to sell at a loss you must be mad"

No, mate. If you can't take a loss sometimes you should put your money into a savings account at almost zero interest and not even think about O&G shares.

It's the inability to take a loss with equanimity which drives some people mad, not the loss itself.