Member Info for Adon30

The 30th September RNS clearly states and informs the market "We anticipate that first natural gas production from the Cascadura C pad will commence prior to the end of October 2024." If someone has been stupid enought to lock onto a date and convince others that that is D-day then more fool them. The market has already been informed. Let them do their stuff. It is probably only traders panicking about information or scaring people about dates. I've stopped reading half the rubbish people write and wait for facts rather than speculation.

As for the 17th. It is only just 9am in Trinidad anyway so they have a whole day ahead of them if it is that important...

I'm a little disappointed that it is only a 5,500ft lateral. Was hoping nearer to 8,000ft. But this could be what the geology allows, is a safer risk to reward and is within the cost budgets discussed with the finance provider.

I think it will take them a good few weeks to finish negotiations. I would allow 6-8 weeks for these as a conservative estimate depending on legal work progression. Then another 2-4 weeks for a rig contract (unless done in parallel with the negotiations). And then would need to get rig in and continue the drilling. Could possibly be started before the end of the year but I would say January and that will also depend how cold it is and how much snow there is. Was quite bad again last year. So keep your timescale expectations long as you will be plesantly surprised if they manage to shorten them. However the drill will be done and the company will be in a great place by spring 2025.

If they can get a better management and get those reserves flowing then yes. Hopefully Xtellus or someone else come in to move the company forward

Thanks Db. It is most likely the solar panels then retaining heat under the cloud cover. Was quite an isolated spot so did wonder.

PS I can't spell phenomenon properly! Didn't think it looked right.

Anyone have any clue as to what the dark square is to the right (east) of MOU3 about 25m from the pad?

Always appears to be a heat source but often blends into surroundings. And latest pass is particularly noticeable as a higlighted hot spot due to high moisture conditions cooling the image. Almost like a hidden flare.

Could also be a generator or the tea urn... but its an odd phenonemem

I did say yesterday that Xtellus would pull the strings now. It nearly got away and they have put the brakes on that, made some money and likely to buy more at a lower price when the pump has settled down. They have always been very shrewd with their buying. Once they scare individuals into sells and drag it back they will likely continue when it is quiet again. No one knows what their plans are. There have been a few rumours but no public notification. We shall see...

I wouldn't be surprised if Xtellus are pulling the strings here. They will not want the price running away too quickly while trying to buy more. Going to be a cat and mouse game. Maybe another holding RNS soon as the small improvement in liquidity will help them accumulate.

Great news. Very successful well and even further upside possible for a small exploration cost.

I got that slightly wrong. The purchase of own shares was just passed again this year. but Pre-emption rights failed to pass again.

All ordinary resolutions and special resolution 11 were duly passed while the special resolution 10 did not achieve the 75% threshold of shareholder approval to be passed.

10. Pre-emption Rights 8,059,791 72.62 3,039,403 27.38 0

All long term holders have always voted against the company issuing new shares for equity and made them use working capital. This has stopped them diluting shareholders which is now proving to be good for existing and new holders as there is limited stock available. The company does hold some shares from previous buybacks which they could potentially sell into the market to get funds. I do not believe that these were ever cancelled. Not sure it would give much cash though. I think buybacks were also voted against at previous AGM.

I can not find the information at the moments. But the assets alone such as the Sabria plant equipment are worth so much a share anyway and the price should never have dipped so low. It is only poor management and comms that has brought this about. The assets in Tunisia are worth a fair bit if the value could be unlocked. A takeover and a new and better management structure could be exactly what is needed here. I think Xtellius have noticed that and been getting in on the cheap.

If SENX could just get hold of a rig to complete the sidetrack in Tunisia N2 well would change the company around

If you actually looked at the Discord information you would answer all these questions and the thread was irrelevant. The drill rig is no longer on the pad. I noticed this several weeks ago but needed a full clear pass to confirm.

There are pictures on the discord of the perforating and testing setup over the well holes. So if you needed any more confirmation then that is it. Hopefully now the Trin debarcle is over the company will actually move and report some progress...

Slowly moving up on small volume now that xtellus have a big stake.

They managed to do it while the other (big) holders were selling down. Now that there’s little selling the price could suddenly move on any buys.

Latest view confirmed what I expected. In that the Star valley rig had been moved to the side of the pad. That suggests they have cleared it for some reason, which is suspected to be for perforating/ testing. Satellite imagery will not show detail of testing so therefore you have to go by information from boots on the ground. You can only go by what is being suggested until the company put out any clear comms and make of it what you will.

10,000ft lateral. Not a sidetrack ;) This will further open the paradox and extend the huge potential of the existing well.

I think they have the money for this, they certainly have the permit and I think it could be a further catalyst for a potential partner. Just my view. Should not realistically impact the share price. Just affect traders for a month or two.

Personally, and this is my own opinion, I believe that any partner that Zphr wants to attract will likely be more interested once the full lateral is drilled. Although they can produce now if they wanted, it would currently mean flaring gas (even at $2). I don’t think a gas off take agreement would be an issue. It would be an issue bringing in someone to run the gas processing side of things and bring in equipment. I’m not expecting this to be large scale to begin with so could make for tricky negotiating. It is likely that they will then try to achieve a minimum rate for gas until a large extent of the cap is removed. This would likely reduce the fluid’s output to begin with. So basically would be a balancing act. So although it is likely that decline would be high if ran at rate, it would actually be less noticeable due to overall control of the well. This may actually result in a monetary peak later in the wells life when it is higher liquids rates.

So I think the full lateral will be drilled. It is already covered in the permit. Both the rns and TP note read as if this is likely to happen. The financials that are due will be interesting. I think Zphr will be able to cover this from existing cash but whether they want to get a partner in before or after this happens I do not know. They are also negotiating a partner at salt wash (the pad is coming along nicely and maybe have pictures soon). Whether they negotiate with the same partner or different for salt wash will be interesting to see. I don’t believe they have quite enough leverage to cover both drills themselves so will be interesting to see what they negotiate. They have proven to be very astute business people so far…

From Turner pope note:

Findings are expected to echo the strong initial pressures of the first drill pahase,which produced a peak of 1350boe/d with excellent deliverability and a high liquid response.

My notes: The salt wash drill is in an area close to recreational use so as part of the permit they need to secure the area to prevent people using it as a camping ground. I also think they need to build a burn to shield the site from the road and any adjacent areas.

Zephyr have a lot of production oil hedged so wouldn’t make much difference for them. Up or down.