Member Info for Adon30

Opec not trump. Coincidental that they did it at the same time.

Trump does want cheaper oil though which is well known. Reduces inflation and increases growth.

So they definitely do not have the VAT refund money yet then. Does Xtellius valuation include this amount?? It is a good amount of the MCAP.

There we go then. They have perforated everything in one go so no stop start testing. Acidisation also been complete. No mention of any clean ups yet or any further acidising needed. But that data will be established during the testing phase. The down hole logging of real time data will also help with the analysis.

Will keep an eye out for any flaring in the next couple of weeks.

I've read its possibly because Iraq and Kazakhstan have been exceeding quotas and others in the group can easily force the price down with increased production and puts those two back into line.

The other is possibly Trump related in that he dislikes Iran and venezuela oil and this could limit supply from those two countries and OPEC are there to pick up the global slack.

Either way its an increase in output which means more availability and a cheaper price. Maybe for a few months at least..

Its because of OPEC not Trump and for other reasons.

They'll get the VAT refund money, all the equipment that has been procured for the next drill, the facility that JA always banged on about being worth several 100,000s (or even millions). And then all the production and licences.

The BOD has been inept and continued to take massive salaries year on year with share options and claim it is ok because "they are doing a good job". When they actually haven't acheved anything the past few years for shareholder value. With huge declines in production, promises not fullfilled and just kicked further down the road.

This deal is likely to go through at 3.4p but it doesn't make it any sweeter. Although can still make 0.1-0.15p per share if buying now....

The oil price change is nothing to do with Trump. It is OPEC flexing its muscles and bringing rogue members back into line. Once they are back in line they will drop output back and the price will go up. May take a few months to iron out.

Think it was Iraq, Kazakhstan and maybe Russia that are the problem. Definitely the first two though.

Not it 2024 accounts as 2025

VAT Litigation in Romania

On 12 February 2025, the Superior Court of Cassation and Justice of Romania has ruled in favour of Serinus Energy Romania vs. ANAF, in the case of the rejected VAT refunds (Note 5 (e)).

In addition to the award of the VAT refunds of RON 8.3 million (approximately US$1.7 million), Serinus is also awarded interest compensation for the delayed refund of the VAT in the amount of RON 3.6 million (approximately US$0.8 million).

But also this:

If, on or after the date of this Announcement and on or prior to the Effective Date, any dividend, distribution, or other return of capital or value is declared, made, or paid or becomes payable in respect of the Serinus Shares, Xtellus reserves the right to reduce the Acquisition Price by an amount up to the amount of such dividend, distribution or other return of capital or value, in which case any references to the Acquisition Price will be deemed to be a reference to the Acquisition Price as so reduced. In such circumstances, eligible Serinus Shareholders shall be entitled to retain any such dividend, distribution, or other return of capital or value declared, made, or paid.

Paul Brotherhood seems to be slowly increasing there holding. Could easily get a 3-4% increase on their investment.

I wouldn't be surprised to see sells this close to tax year end. People may be willing to take a loss now to cover any tax burdens and buy back next week knowing (or hoping) that there is no significant price rise before then.

Previous Operational flow:

6th June 2024 - Operations completed

26th June 2024 - started clean up of well

9th July 2024 - Well test underway

23rd July 2024 - initial results, obstructed fractures and acidisation to be performed.

29th August 2024 - Successful completion of acid wash with 2nd test commencing

6th September 2024 - 2nd phase test complete

I would expect that they would have perforated as required and may have had an initial cleanup before the acidisation. Followed by the acidisation. Does depend how many times they acidise and clean up before running a production test. Or may be doing it as they go perforating different zones along the way each time. It has only been a week since last update and they do like a good week to 10 days of testing anyway on top of all the other bits needed.

Last time acidisation took a month but that was because they also needed to get equipment in as it was not planned. So should be a lot quicker this time.

No flaring on latest satellite pass due to cloud but hope to see it soon or a picture on X.

And for reference from previous RNS:

The acidisation operation successfully removed any remaining near-wellbore formation damage and generated very high reservoir deliverability, with a notable improvement to near-wellbore reservoir permeability after each acid treatment. As such, the operation not only removed damage but also enhanced reservoir productivity.

The Company anticipates completion operations to commence next week and expects initial production test results to be available in mid to late April 2025, subject to weather and current vendor schedules.

Holy Moly. I actually agreed with something thebold said......

Agree with Matt. Doesn't sound like either could work together again which could cause even more chaos and they are both prone to going off the handle.

Just look at the number of O&G being bought out by private entities and you'll see the majors are not interested unless it is something massive. Even the market is not that interested in O&G hence the prices things are going for.

A couple of examples are TRIN by LOL and now SENX by Xtellus. Everything is going cheap and leaving holders massively out of pocket. Exactly the same could happen here if someone was willing to untangle the mess.

Was actually the most volume yesterday than there has been for the past 3 months. It was previously moving on hardly anything.

Spread was still fairly wide though. More volume will help with that.

"Further to our recent update, completion operations on the State 36-2 LNW-CC-R well are underway. #ZPHR - in conjunction with our service provider Halliburton - plans to perforate the well across 16 stages of the productive portion of the Cane Creek reservoir after which production testing operations are expected to commence.

We are looking forward to providing additional updates as the operation progresses."

Hard to say exactly which stage they are at. I did say equipment was at the well head end of last week. Have to assume that they have everything including the long awaited fibre optic cable as otherwise pointless mobilising an operation like that working all hours.

It was a week between confirming acidisation complete and a set of results being obtained last time.

Here is a better brakdown of share distribution:

As of 16 Jan 2025, there are no shares held in Treasury. The percentage of shares not held in public hands is 36.28%.

There are no restrictions on the trading of the Company’s ordinary shares.

As of 16 Jan 2025, significant shareholders of the Company are Xtellus Capital Partners Inc (29.98%), Michael Hennigan (7.48%), CRUX Asset Management (6.38%), Quercus TFI SA (6.07%), Jeffrey Auld (3.92%), Marlborough Fund Managers (3.15%), and Spreadex LTD (3.20%).

Interestingly Michael Hennigan (7.48%) and Spreadex (3.197%) are not shown in the Details of Irrevocable Undertakings. So a further 10.66% not confirmed either way.

Those listed in Irrevocable Undertakings

Directors:

Jeffrey Auld 5,792,954 3.92%

Łukasz Rędziniak 702,000 0.47%

Jim Causgrove 290,000 0.20%

Total: 6,784,954 4.59%

Lampey Conway & Co LLC 13,193,642 8.93%

Raglan Road Capital 1,300,000 0.88%

Total: 14,493,642 9.81%

So if Xtellus can not vote and hold 30% of the shares then only a further 70% can vote. Each share is therefore worth 1.43 times for those who can vote.

So to get to 75% to pass the action only 52.5% of the remaining overall shareholding needs to vote yes. They currently have 14.4% and need a further 38.1% of votes.

However to have a 25% against only 17.5% of the overall shareholders need to vote No.

Problem you have is that if it was voted against what could happen....? Xtellus could pull out completely leaving a share price capitulation. Or they could continue buying while maintaining a low share price until they had an even bigger holding. Also who's not to say that the company will do a further raise with Xtellus buying that portion of shares as well. Thus increasing their shareholding further anyway.

The only thing that could go in shareholders favour (particularly LTHs) is that a offer comes in from another interested party. Similar to what happened to TXP when they bid for TRIN and a higher cash offer came in. However Xtellus already hold 30%. A bidding war could push the price up, but again what would it be? 4p?

Remember that assets are worth a fair value alone, also they have (or should have) purchased all the lead items for drilling N2 sidetrack and that alone should double current production output not to mention all the other potential that the Sabria license holds. The BOD dragging their feet on that has not helped any shareholders including themselves.