Natural Gas12 Nov 2025 08:17
Borrowed from someone else:
The next five years are going to be very interesting for natural gas…
Revolution #1: Massive increases to U.S. compute infrastructure driving huge increases to natural gas sourced grid power.
Large data center completions were doubling every 4 years, but AI has compressed this to every 2 years. Estimated US hyperscale completions since 2020: 300. Leading operators: Amazon (150+ US sites total), Microsoft (60+), Google (30+ new since 2020).
By 2030, expect 500+ more large US facilities. These centers are primarily in: Northern Virginia (largest market, +83% capacity since 2020), Texas/Arizona (power availability), and Atlanta/Phoenix.
Energy demands: 20-25 GW from new large data centers completed since 2020. That’s the equivalent to the output of ~15-20 new natural gas plants / ~16-20 million U.S. homes annually. If trends hold, new builds 2026-2030 add another 50-60 GW (more than double existing demand).
Energy sourcing for new builds reveals a dominant reliance on natural gas. This is driven by the need for reliable, scalable baseload power to meet 24/7 demands.
Bottomline: Today, if all large/hyperscale data centers were run at 100% capacity and were powered only by U.S. natural gas, they would consume roughly 6% of total existing natural gas production. By 2035, that figure will be over 20%.
Revolution #2: Natural gas export demand is about to almost triple.
In 2024, natural gas exports (11.9 Bcf/d / 4.35 Tcf annually) consumed 11.5% of total U.S. production.
There are currently seven major LNG construction projects near-completion, underway, or planned and approved: ExxonQatar’s Golden Pass (2.4 Bcf/d); VG’s Plaquemines (1.6 Bcf/d); Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 (1.7 Bcf/d); NextDecade’s Rio Grande (3.6 Bcf/d); Sempra’s Port Arthur (1.8 Bcf/d); VG’s CP2 (3.3 Bcf/d); and EnergyTransfer’s Lake Charles (1.6 Bcf/d).
When completed (2029) these facilities will add another 18 Bcf/d of export capacity, taking total export capacity to 30 Bcf/d (11 Tcf annually) – roughly 3x current export capacity. This represents roughly 30% of U.S. production. That’s more than the entire U.S. electrical generation sector uses today.
By 2030, LNG exports + AI compute energy demand will consume 50+Bcf/d of natural gas – or roughly half of total production. Supply is expected to grow, at most, by 10%.
The coming natural gas price spike will be extreme at times (like in the winter) when demand surges. Pipeline capacity is very tight. Permian takeaway is already at 95% of capacity. And new pipelines take forever to permit and built. The other major issue is, unlike LNG, data centers never turn off. There’s zero seasonal flexibility.
We’ll see consistent $10+ natural gas prices by 2030. And, when there's a significant demand spike in the winter, we'll see $50 gas.