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A lot of the bits have been there for a while. Not sure what was left to bring in but they will then rig up before bringing the drilling crews over.
According to the Utah (udogm) data they are already drilling but that’s never accurate.
The timescales have not changed. In fact they may be a tiny bit forward of initial plans.
They have always said rig up in mid April with drilling to start straight after. H&P had to move all the equipment from the previous drill they were doing first.
From rns “ The H&P rig has now been mobilised to the well site and will begin rig-up activity in mid-April, prior to commencing the larger drilling operation.”
Colin has confirmed the exact same thing today
https://x.com/ZephyrEnergyPlc/status/1775805925296587188?s=20
Would hope an extension to Q3 (September 2024) with a drilling partner would be the better option. Getting state 36 completed and paradox production underway should be more of a priority at present.
Depends how close they are in achieving a partner buy in.
It is classed as a White Sands facility. So not sure if it’ll be a central point for liquids storing before trucking or whether it’ll be directly at the state 36 pad. A central point would make more sense for logistics but depends on what the infrastructure can handle.
All the info has been available online for a month now. I did allude to it some time back ;) It is waiting on a permit, which I guess is waiting on the drill.
That is my understanding of the gas facility also. They will ship in a modular processing plant. This will be owned and ran by a third party.
Other than pipelines and possibly some condensate storage the old equipment (if there is any there) won’t be used.
And as a freebie for people on this board as no one else has spotted or commented on it. Zephyr have applied for a storage tank (tank battery) for the liquids from state 36 so are certainly expecting it to be big.
Interesting that he should say that, as in the latest onshore bid round they bid on the Guayaguayare licence. Is this what is holding up the current bid round for all the other applicants as CEG want to leave? Or are they committed to still expanding in Trinidad…
State 36 will be the main earner. All that’ll need is the gas plant sorting.
State 16 I expect to be an on/off well where they try to understand how laterals will work, what flows can be achieved, any problems that may occur. They’ll need to get the gathering line in place for this but that’s not a big job. Then state 16 will be used to check overlying layers using the same approach.
Federal 28 will also be an on/off well with a bit of production. I expect they will then drill a lateral there after a bit of cash flow and understanding of state 16. Whether this is before or after overlying layers at state 16 would depend on there plan.
Then there is the salt wash drill. Hopefully they get a partner in on this. The cash flow at present doesn’t support drilling there near term without the paradox online. Hopefully they can extend the period in which they need to drill and look at it a bit later otherwise I feel that one may slip away.
Oil prices holding quite well so payback on non-ops is looking ok.
I've been trying to find some more information on the Salt Wash well that was planned, but haven't found much. It is likely it will not get completed in the timescale they originally expressed. They could of course abandon going down that route still although last Auctus research note stated it was still planned for this year. However would hope they manage to secure someone like H&P to drill that one also even if it is later in the year.
Proactive interview
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1043668/touchstone-exploration-discusses-transformational-2023-and-the-road-ahead-1043668.html
Proactive Investor Presentation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agdQLQtn6ac
1 Tcf is the high prediction prospective (Net to Predator). Over 2 Tcf in total high at Corrib South and Ram Head.
More realistic mid point is 300Bcf (net to Predator).
Rams Head contingent Resource around 60Bcf (net to Predator).
Looks like an increase in activity over the weekend at State 36 has seen a few more trades go through. About time there was finally regular market activity after all this time.
Also looks like several moving things about before the end of the tax year.
Summary:
* Production rates steady but low and also attracting a lower commodity price.
* sidetrack at Sabria W-1 not for at least 6 months (sometime in Q4 maybe)
- Long lead items on order and costing less than previous highs
- Drill rigs difficult to get in Tunisia and needs to be the right type. Could delay it further (remember last time!)
* Sabria N-2, 55% partner is not receptive to any further work. Unlikely to happen this year as they want progress on pumps which is waiting on W-1 working with end of year timescale. They claim to be in discussion on this well but looks a complete non starter at present.
* Moftinu has at least a couple of years life left.
* Rates being kept low due to low commodity price and excessive tax regime in Romania.
* Did mention that they own the gas plant ($7.5m) and it can be moved.
* No plans to explore...
I can understand the reduction in production rates in Romania while the prices are low and taxation is high. But to not be planning a drill 9-12 months down the line because of this does seem short sighted. The last 3 drills have all failed to produce (commercially) in Romania. If there was to be a peak in prices or a change in fiscal regime then presently SENX are in no position to take advantage of it. It would take them 12-18 months to have anything in place on a success case. And by then they would have probably missed a lot of the benefit. They don't seem to be very proactive on this front.
The Tunisian assets could be huge but this should have taken off last year. Now it will be 2025 before any increased benefit from them.
For now the production will pay the bills and their inflated wages. However as an investment case it is not looking to rosy for the coming year.
Hopefully people will use there votes wisely again at the AGM to prevent this board from having any free reign. And possibly even see some being voted off.
Not sure today warrants a 10% drop based on the assets but that's the market for you.