Member Info for ActuaryBoi

Thanks very much Seis! Will adjust on my side. Your number seem to be more reasonable

Someone correct me if my calcs seem way too weird but high level.

Jubilee SP in 2021: 22.5p when EBITDA was ~70m

Based on numbers communicated yesterday, potentially 100m for FY2026 based on 45m (pgm), 20m (chrome), and 32m (copper ~ 8000 tons x $10,000 x 40% margin).

Shares in issue compared to 2021 ~40% higher

So estimate at Fy2026 end if we retain pgm/chrome >>> (100m/70m) / 1.4 (for dilution).

= 23 p. We can only go upwards from there if copper start ramping up and beats expectations.

Keep in mind we are also trading at close to half our net asset value right now.

Exactly Bluebelly. Leon seemed to upbeat and positive on the SA business at the time. At current pgm prices, I'd imagine how everyone on the board would be smiling, so I wonder when this deal was proposed to the board. Was it in such a short time span between the Q3 update and the actual announcement, I wonder.

Time to focus on producing as much pgms as possible to take advantage of the price surge for FY2026. Use that money for "Capital Light" Zambia and then profit off Zambia in the coming years and use the pgm/chrome operations to pay dividends

Thanks for the numbers Seis.

I cant stress this enough. I just hope when the circular comes put, shareholders make decisions according to actuals and yes give some credit to projections but not all the weight. We've all seen what was promised and not delivered, Roan being the prime example.

Zambia has a lot of potential I agree but that being said, at this point, I cannot see why big investors would let go of pgm operations at such an important time not that we're in the upward cycle of platinum, palladium, etc. After the long downward trend from Mid 2021 to beginning 2024 (3.5 year!).

FY2026 can be the record profit year for Jubilee if we retain pgms/chrome and deliver on copper. I mentioned 8000 tons which doesn't seem too far fetched based on current Roan and Munkoyo numbers and Project G coming online. With steady progress on Leeching and Sable in Q1 2026, hopefully something good on LWP, we can be on 15,000 by end of next year

There is so much potential for this stock to literally bag a 5-6x in the next 12 to 18 months from the current price. We just have to make the right move!

Agreed with you gents Bluebelly and nevertogiveup.

If we had good production as promised, alot of us would be more comfortable to sell and expand on an already promising copper producing venture.

The fact is that most of the copper production is still quite theoretical (large waste, new mines leon wishes to secure, etc.) and not yet achieved.

If the PGM/chrome business goes, we will not have any stable business to cover for the f*** ups copper production has demonstrated these last 2 years. I'd rather much slowly grow the copper business with reliable results than go ballz deep trying to accelrate something which might not meet expectations.

I meant to say, we could generate potentially more than the upfront payment by keeping the business within this year. Just depends on the deal structure.

Happydays, based on prices remaining at these levels, we can generate the upfront payment (potentially more) from the buyer within this year.

Even the big institutional investors are aware how profitable the business is at these prices. They would not want the business to be sold less than what it's worth.

Based on 45m (pgm) and 20m (chrome) and say 32m from copper (based on 8000 tons, at $10 000, and 40% margin - yes very rough calcs which could be different but this is the best estimate i have at this point), profit for FY2026 could be close to 100m. Absolutely crazy if we achieve that!

Thanks bottomsup! Much appreciated

@Seis.

Out of interest what weightings do you use for your pgm basket price calculation. For example would it be platinum, palladium, rhodium weighted 50,30,20?

If I catch a hint at the time the sale being unlikely to go through (at current prices it most likely wont), i swear to god im gonna go ballz deep and buy another million shares if I have funds. I will then hibernate and check my account after 6 months.

In the next couple of months if PGMS stays or hover even 10 to 15% lower than current levels, I will be more confident that pgms will retain such prices for next 2 to 3 years and the SP will do very well just based off chrome/pgms. If we deliver on copper as well, then all I can say is CAKE AND PIE.

I thought if shareholders vote against the sale, there'll be no fee as we did not withdraw, we merely rejected the offer. I thought only if we withdraw from the sale before even voting, then we'd have to pay the fee

People buying this share at these levels will be dancing in a couple months if the sale doesnt go through. The share price will re-rate to allow for the profitable pgm prices. Once copper is being produced (stable consistent numbers) market will add further positive sentiment.

Thanks Seis. Im sure Jubilee have shifted focus to PGMs over chrome. We produced 50k oz in FY2021. Hopefully guidance steers to that for this new financial year to take advantage as long as we can. Who know maybe for long term if the sale doesn't go through

Gentleman, we all share the same frustration. It sucks, it really does. However, if we can get the copper production right, and we fill the promises, oh gosh will the SP be flying within the next 12 months. Hoping whatever happens with the pgm/chrome side is for our best interest.

I cannot wait for the day when JLP is producing copper as planned. And the only thing we will be arguing or chatting about, will be the copper supply/demand fundamentals and the short, medium, long term price of copper. One day. Hopefully within the next 12 to 24 months.

Blue Belly.

I am South African and live here. Yes, SA was on a rapid downward spiral. However last years national elections saw positive change and businesses are starting to pick up again. A lot more foreign investment coming in. Althought the currency has gone down, it has stabilized. The government is trying to pay down debt and the GDP seems to be recovering. I think the lowest point in SA was probably 2022/2023.

Currently the coal stock levels at ARA is 2.87 m tonnes (as of 2nd July). This is a multi year low in stock level. With July heatwaves and high coal use, this will further drive down stocks. When it's stocking time in Sep/Oct price should move higher particularly if Gas storage is also relatively low. So good positive outlook

Rotterdam is showing alot of strenght. Richard bay usually follows and so will Newcastle. We are currently on par with last year's coal prices right now. If we continue to see an increase and coal moves another 12-20% up, im sure we can get to £6 as we were at £6.2 last year in Oct/Nov and then again in Jan this year.

I'd prefer not having a very large dividend next month so that more focus can be given on retaining funds leading to a higher SP and more capital gains

I wonder how many times we're going to see the words "xyz tons of copper CAPACITY" in the circular lol

I would hope that the sale vote happens in October after Full Year 2025 results are released. (Results estimated to be published on 3rd October).

That way we'll have a fair idea of the PGM/chrome production, profitability and opportunity cost before we all decide what to do. We'll have a better idea of the pgm market and potential trends.

I doubt the management team will wait that long until voting though.

Yes yes I know. Wait for thr circular for the above to be confirmed.

From my understanding the circular will be releaeed end of month. The date of the voting has still not been communicated and will also probably be in the circular. I'd say maybe end of August/ beginning September is my hunch.

Unless it happens at the General meetinf in October which would be ideal