Member Info for ActuaryBoi

Ah okay thanks Northern.

Will note that down in my calcs

I think at additional $500 in pgm basket where we are compared to last year, this translates to around $25m extra per year assuming we have moved to producing more pgms as of July to take advantage of the price uptick and target 50k oz.

Not $25m overall, $25m EXTRA!!! Im fuming.

What's funny in the proposed sale is that we keep the rights to the Tjate mine to benefit from "potential pgm upside".

That makes perfect sense!

Tjate has no production or infrastructure and is just sitting there doing nothing.

While we dispose off the actual pgm operations that is already benefiting from the pgm increase.

They really think we're a bunch of clowns in a circus by mentioning Tjate still giving us PGM exposure when it's not even producing 1 oz of material. They might as well have left that statement out lol

About 50% of shares are with major institutions and not all of them may vote in favour of the sale.

If the special resolution 75% majority is required for the sale to go through, i think it will be tougher to get shareholder approval overall as from my understanding 80-90% of forums realted to JLP shows individuals are not in favour of the deal

I should've stayed invested in Sibanye Stillwater. Instead i withdrew my funds from there in anticipation of good copper figures from Roan and uptick of JLP due to the pgm orice increase.

Go big or go home is a true statement. Unfortunately it was the latter for me

Agreed Kalan.

Im hoping for the vote, we will need a special resolution.

A special resolution is a high-importance vote requiring at least 75% shareholder approval, used for significant decisions affecting the company’s structure, control, or assets. This is typical and applicable to substantial sale of a company's assets in both South Africa and the UK.

But again, I impatiently await the circular.

This is all Balls. I was planning on getting a porsche 911 carerra end of 2026. My projections were based on at least 10k tons of Cu (which i believe is possible on anualised basis by end of 2026) and current Pgm and chrome business as is which would've seen a substantial SP increase.

Again this deal defies all logic. The whole point of diversification is to take advantage of different metals depending on commodity prices.

Yes if copper goes up we focus more on production of copper.

When pgms go up we focus on producing more pgms rather than chrome so we get higher margins.

When cobalt goes up, same story.

We literally can take advantage of pgms right now and seems like management is purposely trying to irritate us.

Part of me wonders that the board may want to back out the deal but cant because its a binding offer and we may have to pay a fees to withdraw. Maybe they just lowkey hoping shareholders vote against the sale lol.

i agree with you sprintrs.

we must remember the $90 mil is not paid upfront. it will be paid over 3 years! so any huge influx of cashflow now is limited and accelerating zambia expansion can be done i think with current cash flow being generated along with sales from non core assets and lwp. i just hope any decision that shareholders will take will be after the fy2025 results are out which seem so far away in october which will highlight the potential profitability of the pgm/chrome business.

we can f**** generate the $90 mil from the chrome/pgm business in 2- 3 years lol which is the period over which the buyer will pay us anyway. (2 years based on current metal prices), and still keep the business thereafter. it's literally giving the business away to the buyer for free who will reap rewards literally after 2 years (if anything they will be handing us their profits for 2 years, after which they will ride into the sunset with who knows how long they keep the business for). pgms have entered a global deficit and prices are unlikely to return to past lows for a couple of years.

i looked through board members on the website and frankly they don't seem to be the brightest inviduals.

to chatamandu. institutions whose share count overule us individuals at the end of the day will vote for whatever they see most profit in. if price for chrome and pgm fluctuate between current levels they can realise 100% capital gains value profit from current levels if they dont sell the business, unless they're all involved in the deal and will vote the sale through.

the market clearly sees this as a bs deal and hence the share price reflects accordingly. our cu numbers are not spectacular yet, and so im ****ed off that we want to jump into zambia when were arent even producing revenue to keep the lights on from cu. im tired of hearing about capacity and theoretical numbers. i want actual data and facts!

like i said before, pgm prices are back at 2023 levels when our sp was over 10p which was purely driven by pgm and chrome production. copper was still to take off and contributing nothing as is now. yes, we have more shares in issue now since then (approximately 15% more) so allowing for this, sp can still do very well while copper gets on its feet.

why are we acting like the sale of the business will give us so much free cashflow when not the entire amount is paid upfront.

I would like to see how they structure the circular. It should be free of bias and not forcing a sale for sound decision making.

Again, if the price is not revised upwards I just dont see how we forgo the PGM side which could be a cash cow.

The reason production dropped to mid 30k oz was because of the price decline. With significantly improved prices, Jubilee will want to start producting 50k+ oz which will be a huge profit driver.

But again, lets await the circular.

It's quite clear that at current PGM prices the sale will not be accepted by shareholders as it's very profitable at the moment. PGMs will retrace but not to end 2023 and 2024 lows.

If there is an upward revision in the offer price, this may still be on the cards for shareholders. I understand trying to accelerate Cu production but Leon has filled none of his Cu promises to date. Leon keeps saying we need high capital to grow the SA business. We dont need to grow the SA business - we can just keep it as is and provide maintenance capital to support the nice profits coming through as our main business will be the Zambia side. No one is asking him to grow the SA side... we're just asking to at least deliver the minimum promised in Zambia.

I still think having SA on the books is good as we can provide decent cashflows for growing Zambia's book. And then when Zambia takes off, SA can be used to pay dividends particularly if we can target EBITDA of $35m+ which is very doable at the current metal prices

I agree with the incompetency of the board. Leon has done a not so good job with the share price, but I feel replacing him at this stage may not be the best, as we are at a critical stage. If copper production comes right and the sale for pgm business doesnt go through we'll be through the roof. Pgm prices will retrace but unlikely to previous lows. As many have mentioned pgms have entered a global deficit and we are in the upward cycle. Hell even if we stay where were now at these pgm prices, it is still very pofitable and back at the 2022/2023 levels (if i remember, this stock was hovering over 12 p at the time).

I was a bit ambitious in my forecast for coal as it seems stagnant atm. But can anyone explain why this stock isnt moving higher.

Rotterdam coal is close to $110 which was the price in January earlier this year.

Richard's bay close to $100 as in Jan this year.

Yes Newcastle significantly down but only makes about 22% of thungelas business so should not be too significant.

So why is it when coal prices coming back up and all three of the coals above are 10-17% higher than their march/april lows, this stock is testing new lows?

Dear investment gods, please please please, give us this one chance of happiness. I just hope we execute our copper plans properly to produce meaningful volumes. We are 1 to 2 years behind where we should have been ( yes some stuff was put of our control) but we might just be in the right place when the metal really pops off.

I can see us getting to annualised levels of 13k to 15k per year in 2026. Im hoping the large waste project turns out to be the additional 15k to 20k tons we are hoping for.

If we are ready for end of 2026 and 2027 with copper that could be $13,000 to $17,000 based on deficit articles I've read, we really will see this share making a lot of millionaires lol

Any idea how long the modulars and everything else will take to start producing on the waste project if they organize a JV in the next 2 to 3 months?

I remember Seis had uploaded numbers showing production from October 2026 which is over 1 year from now which seems reasonable if we get a deal over the line soon.

Couldnt have said it any better myself Happydays!

SA can be the backburner paying dividends while we accumulate copper profits for further expansion of need be.

Should the sale not go through, big re-rate due on the SP. And this will ignore the impact of copper which will further contribute to the upward swing.

Say, PGM prices hold, then Jubilee will likely focus on producing more PGMs and go back to 50,000 ounces per year as we have plent of run off material from the chrome production which was stellar this last year. Including the JV we signeda couple months ago, expect another 10,000 ounces where we share 50% of profits.

Wowza! If there's big pressure to keep this side of the business and current prices maintain, we should see at least 7p based on the PGMs profits alone.

Listened to the previous Leon interview at roast which happened 3 weeks back when the circular was announced.

He kept mentioning that Zambia is very capital light going forward. Surely with the improved PGM and chrome price in FY 2025H2, we generated a good chunk of cash. If PGMs maintain or hover around the current level (even at 10% less that current prices), we should generate sufficient cash to secure any other reefs or opportunities Leon keeps talking about. Hell, we are even producing copper now (not in great quantities) but we are from my understanding producing more than before (annualised basis) since the last update and could use this cash to finance anything further.

As Happy says, it would be nice that even if Zambia takes off and we make good profits, we could use the SA profits to pay dividends which could be handsome going into the next 3 to 5 years

If we maintain $1200-$1400 over the coming months/years for platinum, and shareholders vote against the sale of the pgm business, I think we should see at least a 50% increase in share price over a couple days. The SP was increasing in line with other platinum miners late may/early june until the announcement. Hence, our current pgm business is essentially being priced in as zero as we might not have the pgm operations if the sale goes through. Thinking of loading up big time around the voting time anticipating no sale. It is a risk I am willing to take i think.

With the way coal is recovering and reduced indonesian supply, we could see Richards bay at $120+ in next few months. Newcastle will most likely go to $140+ and the share price should be at least 6.25p.

EU still has gas shortage and this will drive up gas prices in Sep/Oct when they have to stock for winter.

If PGMs maintain the price and momentum, we should have ample cashflows to cover copper capital costs.