Member Info for ActuaryBoi

With the way management is taking charge, I'm surprised we're all still here. Copper is going to have to be an absolute miracle for us to even make some investment return. The opportunity cost of having invested here these past 1.5 to 2 years has been massive. I should've just invested the same sum in a pgm miner and i wouldve doubled my bucks by now. And still could buy this BS stock at these low levels

They cannot expect us to make a decision without actual numbers.

I don't want to see forecasts and capacity potential. I want to see raw numbers for copper, chrome, and pgms. The profitability of each and yada yada yada.

They cannot make us make a decision without having all the information.

Agreed 4everlong. If the business was not for sale, the tone of the RNS would've been showing of JBLs flexibility and increased focus on taking advantage of current market prices. I cannot believe how much bias is coming through in the updates.

All I hope is Slaters man is running numbers and identifying opportunity costs. We just cannot go into Zambia completely when its loss making.

And they keep talking about chrome going down 1% offset by 4.5% pgm increase. They do realise that chrome could even go up 1%? Its as if they expect chrome to decrease like they did with pgms and now look where that market is.

At this point, Im not sure what the board or Leon are thinking... the only concern to me is what the major institutions are leaning towards. At the end of the day they hold the deciding vote.

The profits that chrome and pgms could generate in the next 2 years is worth the 90m, so even if production decreases for both metal groups thereafter, we will at least still have the business to generate some profits to pay dividends. The cashflow will be enough in the next year or two to fund 'capital light' Zambia. We dont need to collect these payments from an external buyer when we can generate the same cashflow ourself lol.

Leons argument of chrome prices decreasing requiring a pgm increase doesnt make much sense to me. Why dont they just decrease chrome production and start milking pgms to take advantage of the pgm surge to offset the chrome price decrease? And why specifically is he looking at downturn of chrome price from May 2025. Thats so arbitray and random lol. The current price is pretty much the average price of chrome throughout the year and prices will be below and above this level.

I was quite confident that we would retain chrome/pgm side of the business. And I was ready to double down on my shares by voting time.

Now it seems the sale will go through (thats the general sentiment) so maybe i will wait till after the SP drops after the sale goes through.

Also why is the Fy2026 pgm production of 38,000 to 40,000 so low. I thought it would be closer to 50,000 given how much material there is to process and the JV coming online

Interesting how they're highlighting fall in chrome prices to undermine pgm price increase. They do realise that the profits and Share price in 2021 and 2022 was driven by pgm profits and not chrome?

Either way, it seems like we are going to be reducing our chrome production by half by 2027.

By then we will have plenty of pgm material to process and whenever it runs out, it runs out. The Present value of chrome profits and pgms whenever they last until still outweighs the 90m in my opinion

At these pgm prices and potentially more upside, it is literally like giving the business away for free. And the chrome/pgm business has been built using so much capital, effort and issued shares from us. For the board to just give it away like this is just not right.

If there's no renegotiated value, that may actually be a good thing because it is more likely that bigger shareholders will reject the offer.

Like I said, if we retain this business at current pgm levels and copper shows steady and good production for Q1 FY2026 (based on actual copper production) then I'm so excited to see where the SP flies. It will be the start to a massive massive upswing. New buyers in this stock really are going to enjoy the next couple yeats without knowing our frustration this past 2 years lol.

All the more reason to keep this side of the business.

The SP at end of 2025 could literally be crazy.

If we keep the pgm/chrome business with focus on producing more pgms and copper shows a decent first quarter in the new financial year, with hopefully some LWP news, easy 12.5-17p on the cards

Its a pity that we're unable to take advantage of the peaks of platinum and palladium. It really is.

Prices will re-trace at some point but not to last year lows.

The business as is still very profitable and hence i can still see us doubling or 2.5x the share price just from pgms and chrome being part of the company. The cashflow from here can be used to secure the copper mayhem and deliver results which will further propel the SP up.

I just hope shareholders will vote based on a forward looking basis

Just zooming out and looking at thr 1 year platinum, palladium graph, it doesnt look very stable. The increase is just too steep and should settle down lower i think.

But if the new support and channel is found, platinum should bounce between $1200 and $1400

Palladium should be between $1150 and $1300

Even at such prices we are cracking at JBL.

Literally we keep pgm/chrome, i can see this stock dounling or even tripling!

When the offer was made, it was all prior to the June/July uptick.

Im personally hoping the sale is delayed as long as possible, so firstly we benefit from the crazy cash being generated while we still have the business.

Secondly, we should find support and a new channel in current pgm prices. I doubt the pgm market will crash to previous lows so quickly which will encourage board and big players to retain the business. This gives enough time for the board, shareholders, etc to calculate and understand the impact of retaining the business.

The institutional investors are not stupid. They will update their calcs to account for current prices in medium term profits and the opportunity cost of selling the business.

This might be super prices to enter should we not sell the pgm business. But then again, nothing ever goes to plan and we might sell it with the pgm market doing phenomenal and I lose more money

4everlong, any news wrt to updated copper production which is good and progress on large waste project, will move this puppy up I agree.

4everlong. I dont think the correction will happen on circular release. A correction will most likely happen after the vote results are out. If we find that we are keeping the pgm/chrome business, then one can definitely expect SIGNIFICANT upside, especially if prices for pgms hold

Profit speaking it doesn't make sense to sell it.

It really does not especially given current prices, should they hold.

There were about 200 on the day of the circular announcement.

I expect probably around 250-300 per day for 3 days of the circular release.

5 years from now, Im going to look back at this funny 3 month period of the chrome/pgm sale. Sleepless and stressed. I intend to hold the share and will keep buying the lows. I really believe jubilee can give a good 5x or more to an investment at such prices. They just need to deliver! Chrome and PGM already doing that. Just need copper to pull its socks up.

Sorry I meant Bottomsup

In agreement with you Bluebelly.

I cannot fathom, though, the mayhem that will occur on this forum once the circular is out lol

At current pgm price levels +- 10-15%, I just don't see how institutional investors would want to give up something so profitable given we're now in the upward trend/cycle of pgm prices.

This has been pretty unlucky timing for management.

If we look at the Platinum and Palladium prices the week before the RNS on 5th June they were around 33% lower than current prices. Rhodium up 7.5%, but on a higher price ($5300 > $5700)

It's likely they were negotiating before that when prices were lower still. No one could have predicted such a large upswing and for prices to stabilize more than a month since. Myself included. There were so many articles on global deficit but the price never really responded until last month.

They have a binding agreement to at least put it to a shareholder vote, there could be other terms in there we don't have knowledge of (which arguably we should) which might be stopping them talking about it more.

I weirdly expect it works in our favour (to retain the pgm side) for the longer time to approval, as it gives time to see if PGM prices either keep going up or at least find a level.

If this really was a distressed fire sale then the increased profitability of the SA Operation due to the price rise should hopefully improve that. Particularly if we also have the massive 1 million oz of pgm stockpile that needs processing which can really make some handsome profits (i remember this from one of the messages on the forum here).

From what I have researched, disposal of assets of this scale (big portion of jubilee books) will be voted for at an EGM.

Any shareholders who do not vote will not be counted as a yes or no towards the sale.

In the UK and SA jurisdiction, a large disposal will require 75% of votes to be in favour of the disposal.

Obviously this is just general and the specifics to Jubilee will be detailed in the circular.

The 75% threshold gives comfort that for the deal to go through basically all the institutional bois will need to be in favour.

If they wanted to make a quick 200% to 300% within months of the sale, retaining the pgm/chrome business will allow that as copper alone certainly wont be able to generate that much

Very close to Seis numbers. Jbl when we were at 4.2p in early June, rose in line with other SA pgm miners (Sibanye, Impala, Northam). Since the pgm surge in June those companies are a further 50-70% up. Even using the 50% increase we should be 6p+

We'd be at our NAV or slightly higher. So potential upside could be great if pgm prices hold