Member Info for ActuaryBoi

Dark_Knight. Today is market over-reaction. Although, if peace deal is struck, hormuz will open and there'll be downward pressure on LNG and coal (as Hormuz still open right now but not everyone is brave enough). We may see 7-7.25 again in a week when market stabilizes, and dividend payment comes. i think i will liquidate my stock by next week

I meant pre war levels and not pre covid levels lol

100% agreed with you Dark_Knight.

Trump has done this every week past 3 weeks everytime WTI oilf crosses $100 to drop down energy prices. He's planning something big next 2 to 3 weeks.

Even if war ends like you say it will take time for production to return to pre covid levels especially Qatars LNG. That being said, i might start liquidating my stock over the next week to 2 weeks because on war end announcement (if it does happen), all these energy stocks will fall. I may wait it out and buy in again depending on where coal moves or will go straight into gold and platinum stocks as they will rally on war ending news

Source888, thats yesterday delayed price. And its for newcastle coal which is still relevant to us but not as much as richards bay.

I see coal prices down today not up source888

605,000 shares purchased today.

Will purchase another 600K share next week on ISA reset and then as middle east tensions start calming will buy via my normal account. I firmly believe the low 3s to be the floor. 10 bagger in 2 years, watch this space! Once the sable modules are up and LWP comes in the game, it will be a different story.

As many have mentioned and in the agm at beginning of 2026, if roan performs optimally, roan alone could cover overheads with copper stabilising above $12,000 per ton. Anything thereafter is all profit

Have my full unused ISA of £20K still to be used by April 5th. I will be blasting it ALL here and then another £20K after 5 April for the next years ISA allowance. Glad I waited to buy at such low prices!

I am waiting for war in middle east to end completely and will liquidate all my oil, gas and coal stocks to shift here. Once war ends, all metals like gold, platinum, copper, silver, etc will automatically go up (yes GDP worldwide will slows cos of the war) but can't miss this opportunity. Still believe this share to be a 10 bagger if everything goes right in the next 2 years!

JMUK, understood. Thanks for the explanation, didn't see it from the perspective.

I just need to be on my toes in case war ends then all energy prices and stocks will tank down. Hoping to see at least the £10 mark tho

I dont know Shuv, but they seem to be cash healthy. $25 m from sale of pgm business received to date, positive cashflow from PG/Chrome for H1 of current financial year, sale of non-core assets. They could have mixed and matched.

Not sure why you're getting defensive tho. I still have faith in the company, but I dont see my targets being hit with the increased share volume. I was projecting 2.9 billion shares in 2 years based on current copper prices and wishful production yet to be seen but the share count just keeps going up

I say I'd be pumping more and more into Jubilee which I have. But my confidence has already taken a big hit now after this update.

The Q2 productions were bad but i gave leeway that things will improve but now im dissappointed. All the talk of selling pgm business and buying back shares... and here they are issuing more shares. What a joke

Mike, what does oil have to do with this? I assumed the driving factor behind coal prices was the natural gas price used for electricity generation. Coal doesn't seem to have taken that much of a hit today as much as ttf gas prices. That being said, Qatar, even if it were to restart production, would take weeks to restart. Thats 20% of gas supply offline worldwide, and keep in mind that restocking still needs to take place around the globe

Gentlemen, buckle up! 60% in 2 weeks, only another 200-300% more to go my buddies!

I now have 100% of my porfolio in TGA on my LSE account and 90% in TGA on my JSE account. Corporate life was never for me, and I will abide by that once I liquidate this champion of a share

Lets Go Thungs!!!!!!

If such events continue 2 to 3 months even, given europe gas storage coal is just going to keep getting higher. I wonder if we will see the £15+ era again.

Keep in mind compared to 2022, TGA has 130 m shares in issue as opposed to 140m back then. We also now have Ensham producing 4.1m tonnes p.a. in Australia + transnet issues sorted thereby increasing SA production further!

Fromage, I have 90% of my portfolio in Thungela. I started shifting when I saw Richard bay move to $97/98 2 weeks ago before the war and averaged around £4.98

Right now consolidation phase. The longer war goes on, the higher prices for energy rises. Like the russia/ukraine conflict, things spiked day 1/2 and then week 2 onwards

Used the dip to top up my final sum. If war persists even a week then Gas and Coal are going to fly. Rotterdam coal futures approaching $120 per ton! Last time such a price was seen was beginning 2024 when the share was well above £6. Also, with USD gaining strength and ZAR getting stronger (due to gold) against the pound, this will add further momentum to share price

A bit confused as to share price reaction.

Since last month coal is up $10 at minimum as of Feb. If we look from March, Richards Bay is $12 up and Newcastle is $15 up.

Thungela mines 13.7 million tonnes for Richards bay and about 4 million tonnes for Newcastle

So additional revenue with higher coal price is (13.7 m * 12) + ( 4 m * 15) = $225m (which is about ZAR 3.6 billion on annualised basis)

Theres about 130 million shares in public domain which translates to additional ZAR 30 per share which is £1.35 per share extra.

And yet this thing refuses to move from last month's price even though coal has been rising for the last month!

Hey all, have been away for a while. I was busy dancing with crude oil stocks given the past commotion. Am currently liquidating and pumping into jubilee.

Will say, the results were alot more shocking than I thought! But to see they still believe we can meet guidance means that Q3 and Q4 production will be strong and if Q4 is lovely that will be the base from which to continue. I am going to go balllllzzzz deep and i dont care about risk now. Will accumulate 8 million shares so that I can call it quits in 2 years

Newcastle and Rotterdam coal climbing steadily. Up 5% in the last week. Richards bay follows with a week to two delay. TGA usually follows thereafter as the share usually adjusts to prices stabilizing before flying up and avoids very temporary increases. Maybe by first or second week of march, we should hopefully see £6+ as I can not see how we were at £5 a month ago when coal was 12-15% lower. I've seen this happen multiple times with this stock. Even when we hit the low £3s back in Oct/Nov, the price of the share took 2 to 3 weeks delay after coal plummeted

Again, I topped a lot more today as seems the bottom is now in

Richards Bay March contract trading just over $101 now. Coal prices up 11% since mid jan (exactly 1 month ago) and the share price was in the range £4.9-5.05. We are also exposed to Newcastle coal which was $107/$108 at the time and March contract is currently hovering around the $120 mark.

When will the updated coal price start reflecting I wonder!? Had to buy more today, because when this ticks up, it ticks up fast!

Share price has been stron throughout the days and then the bloody UT at the end of the day always knocks off a good chunk. It's so irritating.

Like if we closed in the £16.90s today the £17s would be breacheable tomorrow. Now we have to cross the resistance around 16.80s again!!!!!! Absolutely ballz