RE: D Day in the Russian Courts 🤞🤞🤞3 Jun 2025 23:13
🔥 What’s left of Evraz:
• The non-Russian assets (like in Kazakhstan, South Africa, and a few Western holdings) are minor compared to the Russian core.
• The crown jewel — the Russian steel operations (EVRAZ ZSMK, NTMK, etc.) — are essentially functionally lost unless there’s regime change or major sanctions reversal.
• KGOK (the iron ore unit in Kazakhstan) is now trying to claim those Russian assets as part of an intra-group debt settlement, potentially stripping even more.
💥 Likely Outcome:
• What’s left — KGOK and any minor foreign assets — may have some residual value, but it’s small.
• The London-listed EVRAZ shares likely represent a zombie equity: technically alive but worth very little and illiquid.
• If the Russian entities are fully stripped out, any final value may be pence on the pound — if anything at all is returned.
✅ What might still happen (best case):
• EVRAZ negotiates to retain partial interest in some foreign unit (like KGOK).
• Some residual assets are liquidated and distributed.
• If sanctions ease and Russian courts permit repatriation of profits, the stock might recover a tiny fraction of its past value.
❌ Most probable:
• Write-down to near-zero over several years.
• The company delisted or permanently suspended.
• Shareholders end up with nothing or symbolic value unless geopolitics shift.
Summary:
What’s left of EVRAZ may be worth something — but it’s unlikely to be meaningful, and most of the value has probably already been lost. You’re realistically holding a geopolitical bet, not a business investment anymore.
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