Member Info for ab76

I’m surprised by the repeated references to fracking here. From Angus’ website (https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/faqs-surrey-tremors/):

“6. Are you fracking?
Never.”

Thank you HS for publicising my Twitter account and blog. I started them knowing that they’d probably make little difference in persuading the government of Trinidad and Tobago to enact the fiscal reform that it’s been promising for almost 7 years, but thought it worth doing just on the small off-chance that they might persuade some people.

Although viewing numbers remain small (the blog has been viewed about 500 times, a couple of hundred times in TT), things are going better than I probably hoped - I’ve made contact with TT opposition politicians, have been followed by TT journalists, and more people from TT or with links to TT are reading the content.

Over the past 7 years there’s been a significant decline in energy production in TT, which most people agree (including the government that’s been in power all that time) is because investment is not flowing into the sector due to the fiscal regime (especially the SPT which makes oil production unprofitable for most producers when the price is between $50 and about $65, and thereby deters significant investment because investors wish to avoid the possibility of making losses when prices are at that level). The consequence of that decline in energy production (which feeds through to a decline in TT significant energy processing businesses) is 7 consecutive years of negative economic growth even when measured in the local currency. GDP per capita was TT$124,844 in 2015 and just $101,037 in 2021, a fall 19% over the period.

Hopefully the government will soon act. It needs to if economic growth is to be restored (there’s no other sector capable of driving economic growth at the moment and in any event the rest of the economy is hindered by an exchange rate that’s overvalued by about 20%) and the people of TT are to benefit from the country’s potentially enormous remaining energy reserves. Although official oil reserves are fairly modest, it’s reckoned there’s up to another 5 billion barrels still to be found.

For anyone who’d like to see fiscal reform, please feel free to like and retweet my tweets. It might not have much effect, but the more likes and retweets I receive the more Twitter will display what I’ve written in TT and so it might make a difference..

According to Angus, on July 1st 2022 (see https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/), “The field having been shut in for so long, all the technical experts expect increased deliverability during the first six months of production. Additionally it was always open to the old Operator to run the wells a bit harder. Generally there are technical risks to pushing a well too hard, but we think that we could do better than 1.5m therms and, likewise the site equipment has some flex in terms of capacity but it would require some thought and planning.”

From the Q&A page on Angus’ website concerning the May fundraising (of which today’s announcement is part):

“Also unlike past placings only a small fraction (4%) of this issuance wss to market participants who might trade out. The rest is either locked up or part of a strategic stake.”

Aleph are the strategic partner and will soon be appointing two non-executive directors to the board. Their money cones from the wealth offices of a number of European and American families.

Brent: $121.50
Brent Current Price Performance vs 52 Week Low of $64.57: 88.17%
TRIN Share Price: 131
TRIN Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 116p on 24 Jan 2022: 12.93%
Shares Outstanding: 38,879,431
Market Cap (GBP): £50,932,055
GBPUSD: 1.250
Market Cap (USD): $63,665,068
Debt: Zero Debt
Working Capital Facility (Per Q4 2021 Update): $2,700,000
Cash (USD): $18,300,000
Net Cash (USD): $15,600,000
Group's VAT receivable USD 5 million: $5,000,000
Inventory (Per last update Half Year 2021 Results): $5,400,000
Net Cash + VAT Receivable + Inventory as % of Market Cap: 40.84%
Net Cash + VAT Receivable + Inventory Component of SP: 53.50p
TRIN Actual Prod Q1 2022: 3,013
TRIN Base Production Guidance 2022 2,900-3,100 (Prior to any drilling): 3,000
Enterprise Value (USD): $48,065,068
EV/BARREL-USD Q1 2022 Production [Sub Net Cash]: $15,953
EV/BARREL 2022 Guidance: $16,022
EV/BARREL-USD Q1 2022 [Sub Net Cash+Inventory+Investments]: $12,501
EV/BARREL 2022 Guidance [Sub Net Cash+Inventory+Investments]: $12,555
Abandonment / Decommissioning Liability: $46,600,000
EV/BARREL-with Decommissioning Liability: $31,419
Per FT on 22 May 2022 - "On Monday, Trinity Exploration and Production PLC (TRIN:LSE) closed at 117.00, 0.86% above its 52-week low of 116.00, set on Jan 24, 2022."

Again for anyone interest (Blogger analytics says a few of you are), here’s a second fiscal reform blog: https://ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken-promises-decline-of-oil.html

It’s titled Broken Promises - The decline of oil production and economic growth in TT. It describes many of the occasions over the past seven years that reform has been promised and some of the costs of those broken promises.

For anyone interested in fiscal reform, I started a mini campaign on Twitter (see https://twitter.com/AB___76 ) and a blog (the first one is here https://ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/doomed-to-disappoint-trinidads-deep.html and there’s a link on Twitter if it doesn’t show). It probably won’t make a difference, but I thought I’d try.

The PM’s full speech is available at https://www.opm.gov.tt/prime-minister-dr-the-hon-keith-rowleys-keynote-address-at-the-2022-energy-conference/

The annual Energy Conference is currently taking place in Trinidad and Tobago.

Yesterday morning the Prime Minister gave the keynote speech. He spoke about how “it is in our interest to expeditiously take steps to monetize the country’s abundant oil and gas resources” and confirmed that the review into fiscal reform is ongoing, encompassing “capital allowances, petroleum profits tax, supplemental petroleum tax and royalty, both onshore and offshore, in shallow water and deep-water” - see https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/rowley-mega-projects-to-boost-gas-output-by-2028/article_ff183654-e13d-11ec-9ba5-479f6aefe62e.html

Galeota depends upon fiscal reform and this is positive news. Fiscal reform, although taking far longer than it should, does not appear to have been abandoned.