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https://mobile.twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1638914185579880450

Correction: the annual report from earlier this month pushed back the date for Brockham. It says, “Recompletion of the BR X4Z well as a Portland producer is slated for the end of Q2 2023 which will increase production to circa 150 bopd.”

On October 2nd, Angus said the following:

“Brockham at full capacity should be delivering about 50 barrels a day, although short term personnel issues is restricting that number to about 30. Our aim is to reperforate the old Kimmeridge well before the end of Q1 2023to address the crest of the Portland structure. So we would certainly expect more that double the current level of production. Together a conservative target might be 125-150 bbl/day for the field (Angus share 80%).

“There are several remedial works to be undertaken at Lidsey involving a new pump, changing out the production tubing, hot-oiling. We do have some reasonable expectation that, taken together, these measures will yield a production rate of up to 50 bbl/day at first instance (Angus share 80%) and prior to more capital intensive works such as a side-track. Again Q1 2023 would be a reasonable estimate for works completion.

“So it is conceivable that we could be looking at liquid sales across these assets, excluding Balcombe, of 300 bbl/day by the end of Q1 2023.”

I think there’s probably been a delay to Brockam and Lindsey as we haven’t heard about any developments, but as they finish up with Saltfleetby hopefully they’ll complete these activities too.

The directors seem to have a reasonable expectation that the share price will reach at least 3p as that’s when their bonus share options come into effect.

Given the salary levels at Angus (George Lucan’s salary in 2022 was £127,000; more than many people earn, but a lot less than most listed company oil and gas chief executives earn - the guy running Challenger Energy, a fairly disastrous company, is on nearly £600,000), achieving that bonus is pretty important to the directors.

Although gas prices has fallen back since December (forward prices remain around £1.30 though), this answer to a shareholder question (see https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/) provides an indication of the value of Saltfleetby:

“There is according to CPR, about 18 bcf or very roughly 180 million therms of P90 reserves here and again 12 bcf or very approximately 120 million therms of C1 resources which we hope to be able to convert to P90 reserves soon. At a forward price of £1.50 per therm you have a value of around £450 million of topline value on those 300 million therms. Now some of that (less than 15%) is hedged at 41 pence per therm and some if is going back to lenders in interest and principal (although the loan is already below £10m) and some has clearly been lost in extra costs – but what are we talking about on this raise: £7 million. Shareholders get to keep several £100’s of millions. It is not a daft trade.”

Then there’s the various oil assets, the possibility of storing gas at Saltfleetby and the geothermal project.

https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1638178986261086209

Here’s a bit of detailed information on coiled tubing for anyone who’s interested in knowing more about it: https://oilandgasoverview.com/what-is-coiled-tubing/

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/angus-energy-will-lucans-shareholders-get-lucky-this-year/

The concluding paragraphs are:

“After quite a transformational year in 2022 the company now looks to be on track for delivering sales gas volume growth and profits in 2023.

“Its shares, which were up to 2.72p last September, are currently just 1.375p each, from which level there should be a significant upside.“

Angus has a great future, but it’s based upon a successful sidetrack (which will hopefully be followed up later in the year by a new well, and increased reserves, in the southern lobe).

Imagining that the existing wells (excluding the new sidetrack) will significantly increase production on their own when the second compressor is fully online is not helpful. Angus have made clear what they think (eg, “It should be noted that this [second compressor] will add little in itself to gas sales until the side track well is producing, since the existing wells should not be run too hard. The presence of the 2nd compressor will allow us fall back should the first compressor require downtime.”) and made their views clearly accessible to shareholders by publishing them here: https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

There’s an “only” missing from my last post: Judicial review can ONLY be brought with the court’s permission…

There’s no right to appeal the Planning Inspectorate’s decision, merely a right to seek to judicially review it.

Judicial review can be brought with the court’s permission and to obtain that permission an applicant must show that they have an arguable case (which means an arguable case that the Planning Inspectorate’s decision was unlawful).

If permission is granted there will be a full hearing, but the review will only succeed if the court is satisfied that the Planning Inspectorate’s decision was unlawful.

Even if that is proved to be the case, the court rarely determines the matter itself, but rather directs the Planning Inspectorate to make a fresh decision this time without whatever the act of unlawfulness was.

Since the AGM is on March 29th and since that’s when Richard Herbert is likely to take up the position of Chief Executive (the previous plan was that he would become non-executive Chairman at the AGM), you’d think he’d be hopeful that April gets off to a good start for Angus; indeed his appointment might even explain why clean up and testing activities that Angus previously thought could be done in about a week are now predicted to a take a full month.

It’s interesting that George Lucan and Richard Herbert have done a sort of job swap.

When Mr Herbert was appointed as a non-executive director on January 24th the intention was that he would then become non-executive chairman at the next AGM (see https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ANGS/appointment-of-non-executive-director-fx2jmca1huzyod2.html).

I suppose the thinking then was that his technical skills would enable him to provide the executive directors with, what I suspect would have been very much part-time, useful advice in operating an oil and gas producer.

It’s pretty significant and bold step to instead put him in, full-time, charge of the company’s production. Without wishing to be critical of what’s been achieved so far (although it’s taken longer anticipated, bringing Saltfleetby back into production is pretty remarkable especially as it was planned long before prices exploded), presumably the thinking is that he can improve on things production wise and let Mr Lucan concentrate on areas where he’s stronger as Executive Chairman.

I’m not sure many other oil and gas companies would have been so bold.

Hi, given the extended drilling time at Saltfleetby, can you advise when the new CPR is likely to be published? You had said by end of Q1, but I assume this will now be delayed? Thanks. Asked on 2 March 2023

Yes. A further CPR is due to be performed. We will need a good understanding of steady state flow rates to complete it [an answer that rather suggests that the flow rates are shortly due to change].

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Could we have an update about the 2nd compressor commissioning please. Asked on 2 March 2023

Due at 7 am on 2 March.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Hi, As much as you are able, please provide an update on how the sidetrack is progressing at Saltfleetby? Thank you. Asked on 2 March 2023

I am happy to say that there should be an RNS tomorrow (i.e 2 March) that will provide a full update. Apologies for the delay in answering monthly questions.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Hopefully it won’t be too long before this test (or something like it) is available for everyone on the NHS as at the moment it’s expensive, but if you can afford it there’s the Trucheck multi cancer blood test that they think can detect most cancers even at an early stage: https://www.thecancerscreeningtrust.co.uk/

No questions or answers have appeared on the website, so perhaps an RNS in the morning first or perhaps they’re just running late.

Investor questions are due to be answered tonight at https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Assuming that they answer questions (as they have every month for many months), it seems likely that there will be some sort of update on Saltfleetby (even if just that the last published schedule remains broadly on target).

It’s a shame that Trinity’s aren’t making more of an effort to highlight two recent developments.

The following have been announced on Twitter, but only to a very small audience and don’t appear to have been widely publicised.

First, on February 14th final marine operations on ABM-151 commenced. They were estimated to take a week and were expected to result in production of between 60 and 110 BOPD (see https://mobile.twitter.com/Trinity_PLC/status/1624081196412989440). Trinity have previously said they don’t think such increases in production are worthy of an RNS, but 110 BOPD could add $1 million to the company’s profit (assuming a 33% netback on $75 oil).

Second, on February 22nd construction activities at the Jacobin drill site commenced. The rig is expected to be mobilised on March 23rd and 35 days of drilling is planned (see https://mobile.twitter.com/Trinity_PLC/status/1628494882082893825). Jacobin is the first deep well and is targeting as much as 10 million barrels of oil (the mean is 5.7 million though), which given that total 2P reserves are currently just under 20mmbls is obviously highly material (see the January RNS). Production could be as much as 700 BOPD (see last years’ presentations).