Presumably these are the two directors Aleph got to nominate. In, I think the most recent interview, George Lucan said that two impressive people would be put forward. It’s taken a bit longer than I hoped, but there’s a clear statement of intent behind these appointments.
Presumably this morning’s assertion by Angus that value of Saltfleetby has increased considerably since the last CPR allays any concerns about flow rates (or rather negates the argument by some that they’re something to be concerned about).
More questions and answers are being added every few minutes. There’s now this;
Q. Congratulations on first gas at Saltfleetby. A huge milestone for the company. Are you able to share with shareholders a brief summary of how the unprecedented extremely high forward gas prices will impact the economics of the Saltfleetby field, particularly now that the company solely owns the field?
A. The last CPR of 26 October 2021 gave a net cash flow to Angus for its 51% share of £31 million and we have now acquired the other 49% – so obviously there is that uplft. That CPR was working on a weighted average forward price/therm of about 70p (see page 50) and the average forward curve out to 2025 (whilst exceedingly volatile) is currently around 300p, and has been higher in recent weeks. Our working assumption is that an average forward price, which is double that used to value the asset in the CPR, is probably conservative. So yes, without doubt, there has been a very considerable increase in value of the asset, even allowing for the mix of hedged and unhedged production.
There’s also:
Q. Given the crazy gas prices forecasted for several years ahead, I just wondered if the company has been approached by any of the multinationals interested in Saltfleetby, or indeed if you expect them to be interested?
A: There is a dearth of new assets coming online so we would not be surprised to have further approaches this year.
This month’s questions and answers are available on Angus’ website at https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/
This is an important one:
Q: What is the geological & commercial chance of success for the 2 sidetracks at SFB?
A: Only one side track is immediatly planned on well 7 and I refer you to earlier extensive answers already provided on these page – we view Chance of Success as extremely high.
A potential further side track into the southern hemisphere from another well has been carefully considered and planning and permitting work will begin shortly. The Chance of Success here is definitely good but harder to evaluate at this stage but this further side-track would open up considerable new resources whereas the immediate side-track is merely accelerating production of known resources by re-entering a part of the reservoir which was historially highly productive (and the old well addressing it was shut-in only due to a technical failure of the well-bore unrelated to the productivity of the reservoir itself).
Angus has announced that the Company has made its first nominations for gas export and sale to Shell via National Grid beginning with the Gas Day of Tuesday 30 August 2022 and will continue to make nominations this week. The Company will give further advice on volumes achieved when flow rates have stabilised.
Further good news and despite the adverse share price reaction Angus looks fantastic on the grounds of being a classic domestic gas producer and thus enormously valuable.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/08/oil-price-union-jack-angus-scirocco-coro-echo-and-finally/
Last Thursday the doom mongers were predicting a bleak future for Angus, then at 9:45am came the announcement that nominations were strongly likely before the end of the month and the flow rate from just one well was better than expected.
Two trading days later, the doom mongers are back again.
If T&T had managed to maintain 2015 production levels , my rough guess is that the government would have received over a $1 billion in additional taxes and royalties.
In a county of 1.4 million, that would have gone a long way. It would also have prevented the 17% fall in GDP per person since 2015.
At 5MMScf Saltfleetby wil provide enough gas for about 43,500 households. Whilst that’s a drop in the ocean of the UK’s gas needs, it’s still a significant amount of new (or rather restored) gas that will generate great returns for Angus.
No budget on Friday, but there is a half day presentation by the Finance Ministry to discuss fiscal policies - see https://mobile.twitter.com/AB___76/status/1563958342346752000 for details and the questions I’ve asked.
Something’s due on September 2nd (unless of course this report is wrong), https://www.103fm.tt/news/pm-anticipate-an-early-budget/
It’s typical of Trinidad that something as basic as scheduling a budget is made complicated.
I wonder what’s been flowing through the system if there’s no gas? https://mobile.twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1560614492135821312
I wonder how nominations will commence if there’s no gas? https://mobile.twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1560614578102288389
I do also, in fairness, wonder why they promise updates they don’t deliver on, but suspect things are taking a little long than hoped and they’re waiting in the hope they can say something meaningful. https://mobile.twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1560614632816926720
Thank you happysparrow.
Here’s another link for you https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/pm-rowley-hold-talks-methanol-oil-producers-switzerland
In it, Stuart Young is reported as defending the government’s strategy for developing the energy sector, saying “it will all come out in the near future”.
A message from Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Chamber ahead of the budget on September 2nd: https://energynow.tt/blog/reform-energy-tax-now-to-encourage-investment
Small correction Lemonleaf: Angus was paid £2.5 million to acquire 51% of Saltfleetby - see https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ANGS/acquisition-of-interest-in-saltfleetby-gas-field-0who5mtzc2ef525.html
The plan then was either to decommission the site or bring it back into production using that £2.5 million (with regard to bringing it back into production, the hope was that following Brexit Angus would be able to use a load of second hand and leased equipment; but the regulators refused to allow that).
Even though the process has taken longer and cost more than initially envisaged, Angus (assuming of course that gas is produced in sufficient quantity) acquired an excellent deal and then did so again when it acquired the other 49% a few months ago.
Three years ago or so Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy and Elon Musk was sleeping in the factory trying to sort out the production issues as targets were repeatedly missed.
Bringing the Saltfleetby back into production was always going to be difficult and whilst it’s a shame it hasn’t happened quicker, it’s not surprising that there have been delays. Unusual and complicated projects are susceptible to delay.
If there’d been no risk of delay, further cost or even failure, the share price would long have been much higher than it is.
When gas starts to flow, assuming it does at the predicted rates, those who bought when the share price reflected the uncertainty that the project will succeed will likely be rewarded.
I’m surprised by the repeated references to fracking here. From Angus’ website (https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/faqs-surrey-tremors/):
“6. Are you fracking?
Never.”