Member Info for ab76

It’s worth remembering that Paul Forrest accepted 60,606,061 shares at 1.65p on December 19th 2022 instead of £1 million in cash for the acquisition of his share of Saltfleetby. It’s not surprising that he’s selling some.

The positive is that there can’t have been any adverse material changes to Saltfleetby since the last update as selling without having provided such disclosure to the market would be potentially insider trading.

The other positive is that someone is clearly buying.

I think there’s a good chance of an update by Friday.

We’ve previously been told that export of gas will commence “during the week of 7 April”, which was presumably a peculiar way of saying between April 7th and 13th. Hopefully they’ll still meet that target and confirm that they have, but if not provide an update and announce the new date.

There may need to be one of those balance sheet capital reorganisations, but Angus don’t think they need to generate £139 million of profit before paying dividends. From the Q&As on their website:

“Are there any further update that can be offered in terms of dividend payments beginning the year?
Asked on 31 January 2023

“Both groups of major shareholders have informally expressed an interest in a high dividend policy. This becomes possible as soon as the senior debt is repaid. Assuming this sidetrack is successful and present gas prices hold around current levels all debt should easily be repaid this year which would pave the way for announcement and implementation of a realistic, but high, dividend policy.”

Shell’s take over system must also be down RedbullRJ as that hasn’t materialised either.

The Q&A’s from the website suggest there may be news tomorrow or Monday:

How quickly will you know the well performance from SF07V at Saltfleetby? Asked on 1 April 2023
Following acidisation and N2 lifting of drilling fluids any decent gas well can be expected to flow immediately. Acidisation took place on Friday and N2 lifting was completed on the morning of Saturday 1 April. We will therefore report initial flow rates for the first 36 hours via RNS on Monday before 7 a.m., however these rates are presently evolving and will be subject to further change (normally improvement) over the following 72 hours as the well continues to blow back residual mud and calcium carbonate.

The last time he was here, he suggested the share price would be 4.15p by close of business last Friday and that he “Suspect by now some have worked out that I "know" what I'm talking about.”

It’s also worth remembering that Paul Forrest accepted 60,606,061 shares on December 19th instead of the £1 million in cash he was due as part payment for selling Angus his 49% of Saltfleetby. The shares he sold today were very marginally below the issue price (1.6p v 1.65p). Moreover, I’d rather Angus own 100% of SFB and have a director selling shares (which so far have been mopped up by others building a stake on the company) than 51% without a director selling share sales.

It wasn’t a £1. Angus was paid £2.5 million to acquire 51% of Saltfleetby (and it got a great deal on the other 49%).

Thank you Push2 for that explanation and for providing a price for each barrel of condensate.

It’s nice to know that, for the moment at least, we’re getting 20 barrels per day more than expected. If that does continue, they bring in almost £500,000 per year more than expected during the CPR (which is due to be revisited after the sidetrack’s production has stablished).

It’s interesting to note that Saltfleetby is producing more condensate than expected. There’s this from October 2nd 2022 on the Q&A page (https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/):

“With the current two well profile, the designers estimated about 50 bbl/day of condy from Saltfleetby. In practice we cannot advise firm liquid flow rates to the market with confidence as the wells have been shut in for so long, but for the past two weeks flow rates have been much higher. No reliance should be placed on such a result as liquid flows can be highly anomalous in early days of production after a shut in. We will give formal advice when we are confident that post-shut in reservoir conditions have normalised. Following the forthcoming sidetrack the designers originally estimated 100 bbl/day as per our CPR and this is a more reliable figure to use looking ahead to Q1 2023.”

“This is further good news from Angus and shareholders will be pleased to see numbers like this being bandied around and of course with better than expected liquids as well.” https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/04/oil-price-san-leon-arrow-eog-angus-petro-matad-i3-and-finally/

It’s a surprise that the share price is lower now than it was when the sidetrack spud all those months ago, but the market should catch up in the coming days.

Angus own 100% of Saltfleetby, whereas UOG own 22% of their producing asset.

We’ll find out in the morning before the market opens what the initial flow rates are, but here’s a reminder of some what Angus has been saying recently:

“The Sidetrack, assuming successful, has always been envisaged to equal the production of the two existing wells. What is different about the Sidetrack to achieve this output ???
Asked on 11 November 2022

“The sidetrack is running a parallel track to Well SF01U which was killed and shut in because of a technical failure in the well bore. Prior to this event, this was the best producing well at the site and delivered well in excess of 5 mmscfd over a long period. So we have every expectation that this area of the reservoir will continue to be highly productive.”

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/media/investor-questions/

Answers to shareholder questions were due at midnight, but none have appeared yet. Last month they were a couple of days late because Angus had an RNS to issue. Perhaps it’ll be the same this month?

Correction: “coming weeks”, not “coming week”.

As Cenkos state, commenting on this morning’s announcement, “Trinity has successfully completed the reactivation of the East Coast ABM-151 well, with initial production rates ahead of guidance (60- 110bopd) at 200bopd and zero water cut. In addition to providing oil production, ABM-151 also produces gas which has been used to lift crude oil in the Brighton field, which could further increase recoveries.”

Whilst we can expect that rate to fall from 200bopd over the coming week as “Trinity anticipates steady-state production from ABM-151 in the range of 60-110 bopd”, the guidance that we’ve been provided with was clearly good (although only an idiot, or a troll, would expect certainty when it comes to making production forecasts).

The debt provider that has recently acquired almost 10% of the company?

https://mobile.twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1640317176329433088

“Britain’s oil and gas companies are next week expected to be offered the prospect of windfall tax relief, as prime minister Rishi Sunak looks to boost investment and improve the country’s energy security.” https://www.ft.com/content/913db0ed-ccb6-4cde-8d39-f1f78b1240f5