Member Info for 99icecream

If you managed to get the research from 4 brokers that's great. I could only get the research from Finn Capital /Cavendish for JOG. Often there is nothing available to the PI 's .

ATG - The following is all entirely my own view. But Zanaga is currently proceeding as if its going to be developed.

If you are developing the project, you first need to find you builder and have the development costed (Chinese EPC Partner). With a Chinese builder you probably will get 70% of the build financed by Chinese banks, then you need someone to put up the remaining 30% in return for shares in the project (The Strategic Partner). Note that this Chinese EPC Partner will spend several millions on their work and ZIOC does not seem to be paying for it)

I would expect that the Strategic Partner is probably going to be Chinese also. The Strategic Partner is probably going to want to buy some of the Off Take as a condition of investing in the project.

The Strategic Partner may alternatively want to buy the whole project and the entire off-take.

I agree with JS.

Frankly the AIM market is a total disaster and suffers from poor liquidity, no independent research and investors who (in the main) buy and sell based more on fear and greed than any logic.

IMHO, late in Q1 2024 the share price will pick up as the PI's anticipate the completion of the GBA deal. Given that many in the oil business will have looked at the FO and will have the data etc for the GBA deal, there would be no shortage of bidders if the JOG share price does not reflect the value of the deal when its complete.

Veteran - As long as SNPC (the Congo state oil company) owes Glencore money on historic oil backed loans, then Glencore remains immune from any pressure by Congo.

Its not me buying into KP2.

Although I own both KP2 and ZIOC (my shares in ZIOC are worth 3 times my KP2).

Similar story in both positions. Quality and size of the asset. Involvement of serious players (Glencore in ZIOC and PowerChina in KP2). What can go wrong !!

I have missed a line in my previous

Who knows what will happen, but, IMHO, your valuation is far too low for a sale.

The EPC Partner is targeting a 20% cost saving on the 30Mtpa staged development project.

>>> Just considering Development Capital Costs alone (of US$ 4.7 Billion):-

Who knows what will happen, but, IMHO, your valuation is far too low for a sale.

The EPC Partner is targeting a 20% cost saving on the 30Mtpa staged development project.

That is worth US$ 4.7 Billion x 20% x 0.8 £/$ = £ 750 million approx (or £ 1.20 per share).

£ 2 per share looks very cheap in context.

Looks like someone's ISA money for 23/24, but interesting its all going into KP2.

Interesting trade late in the day 3,076,923 shares at 0.65 (I assume a buy).

This is hot topic at the moment. States are being pursued for compensation by energy companies when they ban fossil fuel developments or when they change the terms of energy deals post contract. Where the states are signed to the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) compensation can be won by the company by taking the state to arbitration at the ISCID (part of the World Bank).

Some argue that states should not have to pay where there is a public interest at stake (e.g. climate change). So the various states might need to replace or modify the ECT in future. Here, someone is trying to argue that the ISCID should ignore its function and/or the ECT and admit a public interest defence.

Another link:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rio-tinto-shoulders-simandou-iron-ore-bill-chinese-funds-delayed-sources-2023-09-18/

What is really strange in this update is that Rio still mention at 2025 date for first iron ore, despite a hold-up in (Chinese) funding and various approvals from Guinea and China. It is almost as if Rio want to ensure that they comply 100% with their obligations, despite knowing that the project will de delayed.

The railway is an epic undertaking, which has been suggested will take up to ten years to build.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/09/12/simandou-work-still-on-hold-as-contractors-wait-for-funds-to-be-released,110042342-art

When the due diligence is complete and all involved are happy that the project can be completed successfully and on (a new) budget then things may not be so bad a as some have suggested.

For example, the banks may come up with some of the extra cash. In the major Fund raising the banks only came up with about 55% of the funds required rather than the 75% that was expected. At the time this was put down to the fact that the budget had already been raised by about 40% from the BFS. If the new budget is more credible and given that the time to first ore sales is reduced, then I would expect the banks to be willing to lend more (at a price!).

Don't forget also, that Horizonte has another asset that could be sold or borrowed against (Vermelho).

There are many options, but at this point it is not at all obvious what has happened, what amount of investment is required or how it will be funded.

The RNS of 2 October implies a figure greater than 35% may be required. It also implies design changes (what changes ? and why?) and it came only 2 months after the 3 August RNS that implied no problems. The Aug 3 RNS seemed to imply that about 2/3 of the job was done, which seems to me to imply the last one third is over double in cost !! Hardly a bit of inflation as some on here have suggested.

"This work, along with a comprehensive cost review, has resulted in changes to the design and execution scope, which are expected to increase the overall capital expenditure requirement by AT LEAST 35% (of current capex budget) and delay first production to Q3-2024."

Revise to: 49% Nominees and 14% High Net Worth

IMHO Motley Fool are adding up the significant shareholdings (over 3%) which currently total 46%. Obviously the majority of these are not II's but Nominee accounts for PI's.

Sealion taxes should be better !

As regards questions I have one:

Has anyone seen what the quality of Falklands oil is. I have seen comments like... "...quality of this oil is consistent with oil in the Falklands area...."

LaticsRule - You will need your boundless optimism for Latics vs. Man Utd in January !

The Annulment request is under Article 52 of the ICSID convention. This you can download for yourself and read the limited reasons that might be presented (basically that the ICSID panel in making its judgement has not followed its own rules correctly).

https://icsid.worldbank.org › sites › default › files › documents › ICSID Convention English.pdf