RE: Sub 11p Coming22 Nov 2023 20:27
LaticsRule
Please see below the dashed line regarding optimal exercise of Warrants.
In July 2022 A total of 60,917,237 Warrants were issued 19,825,849 (Open Offer) 41,091,388 (Placing)
As of 1 November 2023 - 12,667,823 Warrants have been exercised. I would assume that these are mainly from the Open Offer (as these investors might be aware of, or care about optimal exercise) - so maybe as many as 64% of the Open Offer warrants have been exercised and as few as 0% of the placing warrants have been exercised.
The warrants in the placing will have gone to professionals who will exercise in December (or alternately will buy shares in the market if they are below 9p at that time).
Until January 2024, you can expect the share price to be a bit depressed as some will sell shares in order to have cash for warrant exercise. Others may use the warrant to buy at 9p if then sell at prices above 9p for a profit.
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The Warrants are technically American Call Options. Option pricing theory shows that it is optimal to exercise American Call Options at/near expiry.
A search on the web for "optimal exercise of American Call Options" will confirm.