Member Info for 99icecream

RNS 13 July 2023

A final hearing in relation to Italy's request to annul the Award is scheduled to take place in Q1 2024.

Absolutely correct - but no different from other AIM stocks. Ultimately, the CEO will be very well paid if Sea Lion proceeds and the Italians pay-up and we won't know if the CEO got it for luck or good management.

The irony here is that the Harbour sale to Navitas was (in my view) transformational for Rockhopper. But I doubt that your CEO could claim any credit for that.

There was no reason for your CEO to exercise his warrants earlier, than necessary. If he does not exercise at all, or exercises and sells that's a negative, but I doubt that will happen.

Don't worry about your CEO. As I understand it he gets options every year that he does not need to exercise before 2030. 3 million options a year currently. So he should be highly motivated to get the share price up, as the rewards if he does will be substantial.

The CEO currently owns 4.0 million shares (0.69%) and assuming warrant exercise will own 4.7 million shares (0.74%). Which is good for an AIM company CEO. I doubt he is able to comment on Sea Lion atm, progress news will be announced by Navitas when they wish to do so.

Its obviously optimal for the CEO to keep his £ 64,285 in the bank earning interest, until the last moment. Exercising early would be seen as either: a) He is not financially competent or b) Trying to ramp the share price.

When these were issued you purchased 2 shares and 1 warrant as a package.

Another 4.2% of warrants exercised during November (75% remain to be exercised).

When they had to raise $80m (October 2022) it wasn't available to all holders as it was within 12 months of the November 2021 raise. No such problem this time. Little value (to HZM) in terms of amount raised, but easily deals with anyone unhappy with the issue price. I too doubt a big share issue will be the result, but its possible, and if it happens I will buy in the Qualifiying Shareholder offer.

If they raise cash by issuing new shares, it does not matter what price the shares are at if everybody subscribes. If some will not subscribe then a lower price benefits those that do put up cash and dilutes the rest. Glencore etc. may have to write down the book value of the old shares they hold, but the write down would be tax deductable, so reduces their tax.

In the Cavendish (Finn Capital) Risked Valuation (£7.55) most of the reduction from the Unrisked Valuation (£16.12) relates to the potential for expansion of the project. (Verbier Deep, Wengen, Cortina). 97% of the £ 7.55 is down to GBA Phase 1,2 and 3.

In November 2021 there was a large raise of $ 197 million new equity (to large investors), there was an offer on the same basis to "Qualifying Shareholders" (everyone else) which raised only $2 million. I would expect the same this time if there is an equity raise. Most Qualifying shareholders will moan about the terms of the raise, but won't part with their own cash.

JOG have losses on the books which can be used to reduce the tax bill on GBA income. Once used up, and assuming no further expenditure on developing new UK assets, then the 20% might best be sold to a firm that has an unused tax shelter (e.g. has to spend on decommissioning an old field).

BTW - Harbour probably not interested in UK assets. This is from the 9 March 2023, full year results:-

"However, the UK Energy Profits Levy, which applies irrespective of actual or realised commodity prices, has disproportionately impacted the UK-focused independent oil and gas companies that are critical for domestic energy security. For Harbour, the UK's largest oil and gas producer, it has all but wiped out our profit for the year. This has driven us to reduce our UK investment and staffing levels. Given the fiscal instability and outlook for investment in the country, it has also reinforced our strategic goal to grow and diversify internationally."

On the other hand the best time for a sucessful bid might be now, while the difference between the market price and the offer price is the largest.

You will need to wait until January to get a better idea on the share price. Some warrant holders will be selling shares to have the cash for exercise.

Meanwhile there maybe some good news

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-nickel-jumps-as-indonesian-price-uncertainty-triggers-short-covering

Sorry, I see that extrader posted faster than me !

FYI Pointe-Allemande is a bad translation of Pointe-Indienne (the new port adjacent to the Special Economic Zone).