Member Info for 99icecream

Several stories posted (in Polish) regarding the JSW plans for the Praire Mining assets. Also, their plans for the related purchase of PBSz = Przedsiebiorstwo Budowy Szybów1 (Shaft Construction Undertaking 1). This one concerns the funding for the purchase of PBSz and other borrowings. All looks positive so far.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pl&u=https://jastrzebieonline.pl/news,12552,jsw-obligacje-lub-finansowanie-bankowe-.html&prev=search

Could you give us a link for this please ? There are some interesting new things mentioned here.

Przedsiębiorstwo Budowy Szybów1 translates as Shaft Construction Undertaking 1, which sounds like a logical acquisition for JSW given their interest in developing new projects.

Parity10.

I have no idea how quickly a new budget might be presented. My guess is that it could be done very quickly if the RoC government wants the IMF program.

The IMF has left the RoC government with a list of things required before they will approve a three year program. From their recent statement we know that this will include:

1. Adjustments to the 2019 Draft Budget (i.e. IMF will limit spending during the three year program).

2. Implementation of reforms to improve governance and transparency (i.e. measures to reduce the scope for corruption).

3. Assurances on financing from external official creditors, including debt relief (i.e. participation from the other creditors is a requirement for the IMF facilities).

1. and 2. will be of benefit to all the creditors, so we can expect that these need to be addressed first.

So I agree with Parity10 that corruption is a key issue for both IMF and the other creditors.

The most visible sign that President Nguesso is taking the IMF seriously will be a new budget for 2019.

Perhaps he should consider a reduction in staff costs ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiRaL5Cv3mw

This is not a debt, it is a negative balance on the P&L account. It would be written down to zero, and at the same time the share premium account would be reduced by US$ 185,252,950. As the Share premium account has a balance of US$ 730,870,000 this in not a problem.

The above change is just an accounting adjustment with no implications other than allowing dividends to be paid out of future profits.

For what and by whom ?

“The IMF team will continue discussions with the authorities on the remaining steps needed to bring the Republic of Congo’s request for a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility to the consideration of its Executive Board. This will require some adjustments to the 2019 Draft Budget, implementation of reforms to improve governance and transparency, and the provision of explicit assurances on financing from external official creditors, including debt relief, which is needed to restore debt sustainability."

IMF Staff Completes Staff Visit to the Republic of Congo

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/11/14/pr18425-imf-staff-completes-staff-visit-to-the-republic-of-congo

Bangladesh police fire rubber bullets, teargas to disperse opposition protest

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bangladesh-election/bangladesh-police-fire-rubber-bullets-teargas-to-disperse-opposition-protest-idUKKCN1NJ1DB?il=0

The position is clear in the latest quarterly report (31 Oct 2018). The Ministry of the Environment can issue the Usufruct to Prairie at any time. The injunction prevents them from giving the Usufruct to anyone other than Prairie.

"...........The court has ordered that the MoE does not grant any concessions ...... to any party other than PD Co Sp" (Prairie).

At a later date Prairie may take "...further action against the MOE including invoking ..... (action) under any bi-lateral of multi-lateral investment treaties...."

The Ministry of the Environment are effectively in control as they have not issued the Mining Usufruct Agreement. We do not know if this is for a legitimate reason or not. Prairie has an injuction (to prevent the Usufruct in favour of a third part) but this does not have any other implication. So it would be more accurate to say that the mining assets are controlled by the government.......etc.

Daniel Orzon (JSW president) has been vocal about his plans for the Praire assets. He needs the support of the unions, the government and the Polish public to take his plans for JSW forward. Without clear support (for his plans) from these interest groups he would fall victim to the Energy minister's alternative plans to sack him.

Bangladesh delays general election by a week to December 30

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bangladesh-election/bangladesh-delays-general-election-by-a-week-to-december-30-idUKKCN1NH0NL?il=0

It is perhaps worth noting the implications of:

"GCM noted that these power plants are expected to be commissioned in line with the coal mine’s ramp up to full production.”

In the original plans the production ramp up adds about 2 million tonnes per year. This means that there is a need for an extra 1GW of generating capacity per year. Therefore any Power China generation would be about two years behind the existing, CGGC, 2GW plan.

I would be more confident when Sun Trust are finally confirmed as off the share register.

After August 2006, there was little support for allowing the mining of coal for export. However, the situation has changed since then because Bangladesh needs a significant increase in power generation. This due to 1) Failing local gas supply. 2) Need to replace small old power stations. 3) Need to dramatically increase power generation total as the economy develops. Coal was selected as a significant component for the new power generation. Initially this is planned to be imported as the priority was the key population centres which are in large part in the southern part of the country, and transport of coal by sea seen as most practical (despite the obvious issues with lack of deep water port facilities etc.) Hence GCM has sought to reposition the coal mine plan as a part of an effort to supply 6GW of electricity in the North west region.

Align valued the shares on a (fully diluted) risked / unrisked basis at 118p / 151p in September 2017. Coke prices are 5 to 8% higher now than they were in September 2017 (and USD/GBP about the same). So about £ 1.50 would be about right IMHO.

The fact that this still being discussed as a possible implies that JSW will offer near to what the Prairie wants.

Maltloaf

It is worth mentioning that the Rangpur Division is of particular interest to the Bangladesh prime minister as her / her father's ancestral home. Her only son was in local politics in this region (I can't confirm if he still is).

Maltloaf

The 40% includes 1.9 GW of Rental Generation - which was originally a temporary solution using multiple foreign sourced (e.g. Aggreko Power) diesel generators (the ones that are shipping container based units).

The most rural locations might be better served by local solar power, but the priority is the more urban areas where the electricity demand per capita is the largest and where there is the most potential for economic development.

Sorry, delete the North west project - North west is state owned.