Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good to see some price movement and insider buying. Question from a lay person. I believe Tambo announced the spudding of A2H on November 10, 2022. As I recall, they also mentioned they had achieved a vertical depth of 2500 metres on Maverick 1V in 18 days. We are well beyond 18 days here and no updates yet. Can anything be drawn or inferred from this? Thanks.
https://falconoilandgas.com/2022/11/30/granting-of-stock-options-4/
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20220924/watch-closing-bell-origin-hands-tamboran-a-gift.html
Interesting how the deal is described here.
I know anything negative is frowned upon here. I spend years following this board but could not post for some reason. It was great source of thoughtful information. Seems now if someone has a different perspective they are attacked. Bummer.
I have a small position here. Used to have a much larger position. Seven months ago POQ was telling us they were going to poke a few holes in the group and sell the asset. Now, he is talking about dozens of wells and achieving production. I did not hear in the presentation how all that would be funded. I am not an experienced gas exploration investor...but seems the goal post moves often with FOG. So often, this board spends much time speculating because they are forced to do so.
Another concern, because I was around at that time, the moratorium came on very quickly. And seemed to last forever. Things can change quickly with FOG. Not everyone has a rosy outlook on this asset. And I think it is prudent to recognize those positions.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-20/beetaloo-basin-gas-solution-to-national-energy-crisis-questioned/101249492
See article above. Several months ago I also posted a link to an article in a science journal questioning the accessibility of the Beetaloo asset. Unfortunately, I was deemed a "greenie" along with other strange accusations. Regardless, in reading that article there was a comparison to a similar asset in South American and how it took hundred of wells before the assert became valuable. My biggest concern is here is that POQ--while he paints a rosy picture--is really being forced to go the route he explained yesterday. Because FOG (and its neighbors) have had limited success (and very expensive attempts) poking a few holes, even if successful, is not to create any value here. And a lot can change over the next few years while they chase this asset.
Just food for thought from a someone who know nothing about drilling. I will not add to my position and will watch over the next six months. To each his own.
Hydro-
I’ve been following FOG for many years. I’ve also followed this chat for many years. It wasn’t until a few years ago that I could create an account….maybe because I am state side. Your personal attacks are silly. FOG has constantly moved the goal post. I found FOG after following a Deloitte analysis on the area prob ten years ago. I have been in an out and only made money off this play. Had I kept my money money in it all this time I would not be up. End story. I will continue to follow FOG. Pointing out they are inconsistent in their plan is well documented (just go back and listen the last video they put out). Frankly, I hope they get a better handle on messaging as I think it would bring short term value to this stock. Longterm will all depend on the what they can achieve. It’s a high risk play. Most investors prefer companies that can tell you where the goal post will be and execute a plan to achieve the outcome. If you think FOG has done this…..ehhh OK. We disagree. But I continued to follow because there is much to be gained if they are successful. Good luck, but I’ve made money off FOG. Have you?
Fog keeps moving the goal post and is inconsistent in its messaging. It does nothing good for the day to day price. The only thing that will make a difference is proving commercial rates. If they are talking 2024 now as a possible sale date smart money is going to park itself somewhere else for the time being.
Well, never ends. Play with dirt and you are bound to get dirty. Such a shame as I suspect this will not be a good outcome and cause further delay.
Oleo thank you for the post. I cant pretend to understand the technical stuff. But I am decent at listening. I found the estimate concerning from the get go because there was no clear explanation of how they made such an estimate (e.g. show us the data and math). I became more concerned when POQ stated at the Dec presentation that Tambo's resulted were very important to "verify" FOG's estimates. This importance was mentioned several times by POQ. And yet when the results were not what was expected, FOG stood by these estimates because "engineers" made them--though POQ admitted he did not understand the science.
As I see it, we don't have a successful well proving up we can access and use the asset. You can follow the science all you want but I don't think anyone is disputing there is gas down there. The question is wether you can get it and at a price that is marketable. Until there is good news, I do not see how FOG can go up. And that might not be for sometime. There are lots of great buying opportunities presenting themselves right now for investors. So, money is not going to get thrown at a high risk possibly high reward play like FOG in this environment.
Also, after listening the presentation I had a couple of questions if anyone knows the answers. Thank you in advance.
First, how does a fault line cause an obstruction in a casing? And how do you avoid the fault line in future drilling? It was explained as someone stepping on a hose. Maybe I misunderstood POQ but I believe he also stated they were aware of the obstruction back in 2016. Yet, it was not reported to us until much later. That gave me pause.
Second, while POQ said there would be no need to raise funds in 2022, he also stated that extended flow testing might not be completed until 2023. I found this choice of words somewhat concerning as it appears he was not answering the question directly. Did this concern anyone else?
Third, the “estimate” reporting a fivefold increase in production based on “engineering” was concerning to me. He did not seem to understand the logic behind it and simply concluded that three entities all came to the same conclusion so it must be correct. Is that a normal practice in gas drilling? I am still trying to understand how we were able to report these estimates while our neighbors could not achieve similar results without a casing defect. Probably a question that cannot be answered. But it makes me concerned about the geology being consistent through the entire play…particularly when the casing obstruction is being chalked up to a fault line.
Newtofo- did they address the concern (raised in the article discussed previously) regarding the geology being consistent over that much acreage? I am just wondering how two wells would be enough to convince someone to pay 1 billion dollars for the play without more successful wells.
No problem newtofo. And for those being dismissive of the article as if it was posted by anti frackers, pay particular attention to the source. It was posted in a petroleum journal and cites to named authorities in the fracking field. I was very much hoping for good news this week or next. That was not the case. I listened to FOGs recent presentation again last night. And they state several times how important Tamboran's data would be because it would "validate" their own findings. So I am not surprised by the drop in stock price at all. And I think it will fall more over the next few weeks. For now, I'd prefer to have my money is some other stocks as there are some screaming deals right now and I made a small profit here. I suspect the overall market sentiment regarding FOG will be the same. But I will continue to follow FOG and this board for another entry opportunity. The post on this board are generally really informative and its been a breath of fresh air. BTW, listening to FOGs presentation and comparing it with Tamboran's press releases and public statements...FOG seems much more genuine and TAM seems like they are trying really hard to garnish spam and pass it off a filet mignon. Reading their stuff makes me feel like I need to take a shower. Still hoping this bird flies...it'll just be a little longer I think. But I know very little about fracking so GLA.
Can't pretend to understand the science. But this was posted by a savvy contributor and complete ignored on this board.
https://jpt.spe.org/unconventional-reservoirs-australian-exploration-experts-weigh-in-on-rosy-reserves-estimates
Yes, hopefully someone with a technical background can chime in. It appears from the estimate a 3,000 metre well could produce 15 mmscfd/day. But all this is based off of their super secret and exclusive way of making the estimate. I don't understand most of this stuff but how can we compare their super secrete exclusive way of estimating production levels when Falcon failed to provide the specificity for their estimates as well? I guess the positive is both entities have estimates that are similar and targeting the same play?
https://www.tamboran.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220125-Second-Quarter-FY22-Activities-Report.pdf
Possibleshalevaluations:ExplorationUS$1,000->AppraisalUS$4,000->ProductionUS$12,0001
Can this provide any basis for possible estimates of where the stock price might go if these numbers are accurate and we achieve commerciality?
Assuming part of this money is to fund the exploration and commercialization of the Beetaloo, is this a good sign they value the potential asset in the Beetaloo as more valuable than farming down their holding for $$? They could have offered up a percentage of the acreage they hold but instead opted to sell a stake in another asset....
Perhaps one has nothing to do with the other. GLTA