Member Info for 805slo

Wet, my understanding was once they go in on block FOG can elect to put up whatever they want (up to 22.5%) of the costs for the next well. They could elect nothing for the second well and still fund the third. FOG was pretty clear in their press release they will raise money to go in on the next two well at the full 22.5%. I believe that is a smart move because if successful they will be money generating wells.

I am still at a loss as to why our recent numbers did not move the stock price up. But…perhaps the market wants to see TBN execute these next two. After all, A2 was a complete mess and then they went and drilled A3 which apparently will just sit there for now.

In any event, we should learn shortly how FOG will elect to fund the next two.

During the QA from Jan 2023 POQ stated the following:

If they opt out they are just out of one unit or 6400 acres in size. They can buy back in but likely at three times the costs of the well. 10-20 wells max in a unit or 6400 acres. 718 units in total. The best part of the deal is it keeps FOG from being forced out of the prize by excessive capital outlays by its partners.

I think there is little chance FOG does not seek funding for the remaining wells in the pilot project. If successful, it will generate cash flow. If successful it will only create additional value to any future sale. I still think we are sold if we nail these next two production wells. I suspect the next equity raise will be aimed at the next two wells only for now. And if need be FOG will seek another equity raise to participate in the next four. But I think the latter is unlikely if the flow rates of the first two wells are production rates. Fingers crossed.

Doesn’t he own a stake in FOG as well? Wonder why that was not mentioned.

I have also purchased more shares. Perhaps a bit too early;). Time will tell if I made a wise decision.

Any UK folks have access to Research Tree. There was a 3/4 Cavenedish update that mentions FOG. I cannot access it because I am in the US. Not asking to copy and paste it just if there was anything in the report we might want to know. Thanks.

2.5 milllion shares just traded in the US dropping the share price 12%. Amazing. 40% share drop since our stellar rates. Love to understand why.

Cam, I think this is where too much talking has hurt confidence in what is later reported. We nailed it. But I think the market wants to see consistency before they start throwing money at the stock. Or confidence from another source. I think a private equity raise with respected investors will help. FOG has been plagued by so many set backs. Some self inflicted and some not. When I saw those numbers I thought for sure we were going to get a nice lift in stock price. I can’t really explain why that did not occur. But I still think this is the most exciting time to be in FOG. And I think confidence will build. I think 12-18 months and we will be having a different conversation. Things can change fast. If they nail these next two proper wells do you really think we will flatline? They got great numbers from a shorty. But the market cannot ignore really numbers from a proper well. Just my two cents….which is worth less today than prior to our stellar news….admittedly.

Long, no worries I like good discussion. Keeps me learning. Personally, I think POQ has stepped in crap too many times by promoting and things not going his way. I think he is wise to sit back and focus on the end game. We have the numbers. FOG will get promoted through research reports and articles.

Wet, are you sure both wells will be opened at the same time? Ill have to go back to TBN’s presentation but that was not how I understood it. TY!

Depends how it is done. Depends what price the shares are sold at, will they negotiate anti dilution protection, and many other possible factors. My point, is simply its not going to be as bad as the market seems to think. It’s always been the case FOG would need more money. So, I don’t see this need as the rational for the price drop. And I believe it will have minimal impact on our asset sale price when the day comes.

Long, I said minimal. Of the option is the least impactful. I am not ruling out selling future gas production but that seems unlikely to me.

Falcon will raise money via private equity and it will have a minimal impact on share dilution. They are not going to farm down nor will they have to with these flow rates. They nailed flow rates that took many many wells for others to achieve in other areas. And I have been critical of the folks involved. I can’t explain the lack of stock movement but it appears here in the US most of the sales were were small holders. You could watch a sale of a few thousand dollars of stock push the price down a few percentage points. In two days of trading, less shares have been moved then many of us hold. If FOG and TAM nail the next two wells FOG will be sold. Actually, I think if they nail the first one our story ends. There will be no further dilution or anything. They will be sold. 12-18 months. I didn’t understand the rational to sell last week…and I certainly do not understand the rational to sell now. The geology is there. The rate is there. A few more successes and folks will be rewarded. I will be buying more. Personally, I see right now as a very rare opportunity. Obviously, there is still some risk. But I think those who hold and accumulate will be rewarded. And absent a government shutdown or another pandemic, its going to happen within 18 months max IMO. Happy investing;)

Nothing surprising. Nice to hear goal is to still sell the asset. I thinking the potential blue only increases with more successful wells. I heard we will proceed forward with the next two and good results will increase any potential sale. I didn’t expect this to be the end. We have great result and while I had hoped to see lots of green today that may not be the case. But I do think we will continue to up over the next few weeks as more articles are written and valuations are made. We are 100% in a better place than last week. And hopefully it will only get better from here. Cheers.

In 2017 it was similar as I recall. Good new, drop in price, and then a 7 days increase. Not saying that will happen here. But most of the trades brining the prince down are very small.

I think our value comes in getting sold. TBN’s value is as a long term producer. Different plays. Personally, I am not putting too much into how TBN trades.

These number are beyond what anyone expected. Finally hope to see this bird fly!

Https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/8cb35ed7-0c6.pdf

Glory.

My recollection is the stock price actually dropped after the new and then took off for a week or so. I hope to see a news release tomorrow still or at least prior to TBN’s webcast. Is there any chance they only report preliminary numbers and still need a third party to verify?

Glory!

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84022&lng=133.6514&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-02-22T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-02-22T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22

Must not have much to do. I guess this could be damage control. But then I cannot imagine why FOG would issue the press release stating they are “pleased to announce.” I’m not sure what company would be please to deliver damage control. I suspect we are going to get great news. What impact it has on our share prices is anyone’s guess. But in 2017 we were right around the same prices when news sent us to .32 USD. And I suspect the news we are going to get Friday or Saturday will be better. I still think there will be a press release before the webcast.