RE: FOG13 Oct 2025 22:15
Frackme, I agree but for one point--that POQ negotiated a brilliant deal. One astute poster a few years ago pointed out that acreage valuation in the realm of what POQ has referenced in the past would take 100’s if not 1000’s of wells. He or she compared it another play in Chile (might be wrong about the country). Not all areas will be as productive as others which the RaaS report recently posted mentions. The gas and oil industry has used a checkboard approach to help identify more productive areas from less productive areas. If one area is less productive, they move onto the next etc.
So, I think those in the “know” got this and saw the deal for what it was.
The current deal TBN, POQ must have been negotiating prior our last investor conference IMO. Hence, why he mentioned a buyout might look like stock in a company in the Basin so FOG investors could get the long-term benefit. Or why his pitched low-ball numbers. He specifically said we had enough cash to get through 2025 and most of 2026. That was not the case, and he knew or should have known of the APA bond that was due. With no pipe access the right to gas is not worth much.
I do agree this is the best path forward for FOG shareholders. I also think BS is not going to pull the rug from under TBN. TBN is an Australian company, and he will need that to deal with some of the politics. Pure speculation on my part, but I suspect his long-term goal is to eventually have TBN sold to a major which will provide additional funding for him to carry more development on the areas his company owns. I think his mindset is 20-30 years.
Right now, I think the biggest piece of news we are waiting for is the results from C-5H. If they obtain rates around 10MM it further derisks shallower areas that are less costly to drill. Though, that does not mean every shallow area will produce as well. That IMO (which is not worth much) is next important piece of news. GLTA.
On final prediction, I do think TBN's US share price will get some pressure downwards. US markets are overvalued and many are predicting a major correction. Some...even worse. Will good news keep our premium in place??? I have no idea. But if things unfold as many have predicted I see less investment in high risk plays and smart money will move into more reliable assets until the worst has passed.