Member Info for 805slo

And to B2B, to say this is turning point is nonsense. I have never seen a scenario where a publicly traded company fires its CEO and that is a positive thing….absent some sort of personal scandal. Generally, its a sign of problems within the company. If things were going so well there is no need for such change. If everyone is on the same page as TBN has represented to its shareholders no need for such a change. Again, something stinks. Sometimes it feels like folks here convince themselves they are eating prime rib when it’s spam.

I have many investments. While I have had some losers over the years…I can say my money in FOG has made me nothing and only lost value over the past seven years. Could have doubled that money in a 500 fund. FOG has not been a good investment and I don’t see how that is going to change by swimming with sharks who want nothing more than to control all assets and make lots of $$. Hope I am wrong. For the record, I have around two million shares at a .10 USD average. So I have not lost much but could have made much more by not buying FOG shares at all. I am not complaining. Just letting you know I have some skin in the game but grow increasingly concerned this investment has no benefit in the end. Some here have a much higher average and I fear they will never see anything close to what they paid. That is not something I like to see.

Not many places to go but this board to get information on FOG. But the always rosy perspective I think is dangerous and steers folks in the wrong direction. One must look at all possibilities.

While folks might not like my thoughts….good to hear another investor’s thoughts IMO. Glass seems half full here with no clear plan in sight for FOG. We have survived but we certainly not thrived. End of the day my job is to pick good investments and this has not been a good investment. Though…I hope you all prove me wrong because I doubt I could ever unload 2 million shares with such poor liquidity here.

Wet-

I am in the US and know who he is. I guess I am a bit baffled as to what the plan is or why BS or his father will somehow benefit FOG which is where my investment is. Thus far, BS has done nothing for FOG’s share price.

Too many cooks in the kitchen is straight from BS’s own mouth in an interview where he talked about some of the learnings issues from Marcellus. He specifically said one of the mistakes they made was to have too many operators (I assume through farm downs) which resulted in lowering the price of gas…cost control was not possible when your neighbor would sell for less. As I recall, he specifically said that is something he wants to avoid here.

While I did not care for Riddle and his rosy overblown representation, not sure I would conclude he lost focus. Always seemed very focused on what he is doing. I am sure there is more to this story but I find it concerning he was booted with no plan in place. Certainty that does not give confidence in the company. And it’s suspect to state in the same press release that basically shareholders should not worry about this because we give up more seats at the table to BS and his crew.

BS has been involved for sometime now with all three major players and yet no benefit for FOG who trades at a value similar to pre moratorium.

BS and his father want to make as much money as possible. I don’t see how any of this is beneficial to FOG. I think every major player in the world knows about the possibilities of this play. It’s no secret. There is no forum, advertising, or press release that is needed. Everyone knows. I am not sure how the involvement of BS and his father with TBN benefits FOG. I worry they are sharks looking to gobble us up for as cheap as possible because ultimately they want control and to make $$. If as you say they can raise $$ fast and start drilling in other parts of the basis…we have to pay to play. We can get snuffed out of the best acreage quickly under that scenario.

Your assuming a farm down is still the plan. But if there were no changes to the plan then why can the CEO who has been actively engaged in his job? Something stinks.

I am curious as to why folks see this is a good thing. BS already had folks on the board. Perhaps in the log run this is a good change but they canned their CEO with no replacement. That is never a good thing.

In earlier BS interview he talks about one of the problems with some of the US plays was too many cooks in the kitchen. This caused competition in gas sales price lowering the price. That is good for consumer but bad for business. My guess is this might be what BS is trying to prevent and there was likely little interest in a farm out at a respectable amount or no interest. Still a long way to figuring out how to make fracking profitable in this extremely rural area.

We need TBN to succeed and I do not see why BS is the savior for our bird. He would take it private and screw over investors without thinking twice. I fear the more power he gets the worse it is for FOG. If he can forge forward and force FOG to have to raise $$ or take a backseat he will. No love lost this games...per BS's own interviews.

While Riddle was good at putting lipstick on a pig....BS is no different if you watch some of his presentation on this play. Not sure the reason Riddle was canned but it was abrupt, quick, and with no plan to replace. That is never a good sign IMO. Hope I am wrong.

BW, all good. I appreciate your posts. Just throwing some salt;). I am rooting for 100% execution on the next three wells. One can hope.

Exceeded expectations? This last round we ended up with an only one well which was much shorter than anticipated and failed to meet the anticipated 30 day flow rate. It was not terrible just not what TBN was hoping for based on previous Riddle interviews. Moving forward TBN has to execute flawlessly on three production wells with the hope of obtaining higher rates than we they have achieved thus far. Odds are not in their favor unfortunately based on history. Def rooting for them to success. But saying TBN has exceeded expectations is inaccurate. They have missed their own goal time and time again.

Wet- on the soaking piece, when looking at the flow test results from the presentation it looks like SS-2H started off around 8 MMcf/d and then increased to 9 before it started to drop. This is why I was asking the question....is this pattern typical when choking a well for production purposes? I do not have anything to compare to (if they started off choking the well from the get go like it appears from the chart). If so, TBN's explanation makes sense and perhaps the 30 day would have resulted in a slightly higher number. If not, it's a "smoke and mirrors" explanation that erodes TBN's credibility. My guess is TBN is reporting the truth and you can see from the graph how the choke impacted the flow rate over the first few days which rose for a few days as opposed to SS1H where it dropped right away. I guess the 90 day will be more important here to see if this approach works. I understand little about this process. So its less than an educated guess;)

A few questions after looking over the TBN presentation.

Anyone know if Riddle mentioned anything about the benefit in flow rate from the longer soak? I would assume they had baseline data to compare.

SS 1H produced 3.2 MMcf/d with ten stimulation stages over 500m. SS 2H ST1 produced 7.2 MMcf/d with 35 stimulation stages over 1,671 m. I don’t understand the significance of using a choke to limit the flow rate to maximize gas recovery similar to production wells as Riddle asserted. That being said, is it fair to say while this well produced good results they were not as great as anticipated provided more stimulation stages, more sand, and more bmps?

Stock price did not move for TBN and I am not sure it will until they drill a longer well. FOG got a little bump which I hope continues. I suspect this is because we are not spending on proving up this section and the results were encouraging.

I think the next catalyst for FOG is what happens with Empires results.

Also, sounded like TBN was going to open up bidding on a farm down after the results but now seems to be talking about the end of the year. I assume this is because they know they will not get the value they want without better results. Had the well produced 10 MMcf/d perhaps it would have been a different story?

Back in 2017 FOG ran up to .32 USD on well results the run up was over two weeks. With results in line with what we were looking for I hope we see a similar run. Things do feel different this time so hopeful we can our share price rise (and maintain) a bit. GLA. Interesting that TBN has not moved much in the US.

It was flowing before the announcement on 5/13 so I think it’s safe to say 30 days will be complete this week. Not sure if they have to clean up a shut in well but if that’s the case maybe a few days to add. Fingers crossed. GLA.

Any updates on Carpentia-5H? Wonder if we can find a satellite view.

Thanks for the thoughts.

I am not sure how one could conclude the flare is bigger with partial cloud cover.

I’d be pretty upset as a TBN shareholder that our CEO never mentioned the issue with SSH4 and the inability to resolve the issue. The withholding of that information will surely be noticed by majors next month when they try to farm down. I believe TBN is 1/3 and yet to complete a longer well.

I take POQ’s statements there will be many catalyst for our stock price this year with a grain of salt. We have heard that many times and later traded down. Hope I am surprised.

I do think we are in a good position to let others continue to prove up the assess and not dilute our shares. TBN on the other hand is praying next months well results will be good enough to raise a large capex for their farm down. With so many blunders from TBN it will be interesting to see if the interest is a great as they hope. I suspect it will be similar to their public offering where they raised half of what they were looking for. They need the $$ and have spent a lot of money with many mistakes and a single success. Maybe two in a few weeks. But is that enough?

FOG appears to be well positioned for some benefit but it will take many more years I fear.

Any thoughts? I was not able to listen closely so I will have to listen once it is posted. I did not hear much we did not already know but I always appreciate this board's thoughts.

Small fish…you get this stuff way better than myself. Aside from the obvious scheduling issues and well problems TBN has encountered, they told you they would wait until these well results before raising more $$. However, they did not wait. Obviously, the opportunities they were seeing were not that great or good enough to wait. In a recent Joe Riddle interview he explained they would use a short soaking period for this current well….but did otherwise citing some study in the conference call. I believe it was you that asserted the flare moved after it disappeared from satellite images and you believe TBN was still on track…which was not the case. From a lay persons perspective, this process seems highly unpredictable as demonstrated by years of hearing one things and later seeing another. I suspect that is just part of gas exploration. But in any event, FOG is still here and has a large interested in a hopefully great assets. However this all unfolds I have zero clue about. But I don’t see TBN being in a better position than FOG.

From my lay persons perspective, it appears BS and DW were the big winners of the check board agreement. There is little room for error with TBN’s ambitious schedule moving forward. More delays and more f ups will not help TBN. I think there is a lot of pressure on them to execute flawlessly which has been the case. Through I am rooting for them…I think this is the reality. And history has shown they have had trouble executing their plans flawlessly.

There was a good question asked during TBN’s conference call. The question was whether the number in June would create the catalyst for really money to come in. Riddle opined he was hopeful. But I suspect until they can drill a long well and get good number consistently, and bring down the well costs the majors will stay sidelined. Provided TBN’s grabbing money now as opposed to after the 30 day flow rate as they had planned, I suspect even great numbers are not going to generate the interest they are hoping for. Though I think they will get there….just mean another year of waiting for real action? Lay persons guess.

Good for Empire. Wishful thinking on my part. Oleo, by admission I am not a sophisticated energy investor so point taken. I came across FOG ten years ago. Loved this chat board which I could only read for years because of some log in issue. My best friend and I got the FOG bug and I built up a decent position. Ride it to the end. If it does well my best friend I are going on a long planned trip. If not, we grab a burger and beer at the pub. Kidding. Trip is happening anyways. I owe it to him for giving him the FOG bug.

Dp..spot on. I had the same thought. Rooting for Empire. Love the CEO. Would be a great partner.

Also, Empire issued a pause in trading today pending an announcement.

https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/5e2c87287d15df8e8606891b4034377e

Interested to see what that is.

Im a wondering why POQ is doing an investors meeting next week. Seems shortsighted. What more is there to report? In the last meeting, everything was dependent on the flow rates. Still in the same position. Seems strategic so he can explain nothing we have already learned and say more updates following the flow rate announcement.

I was not able to listen to the entire TBN conference call. But it sounded like TBN and DW are teaming up. No mention of FOG. Going to need a lot of $$$ to stay in what TBN referred to as the “sweet spot” (Phase Two). Phase Two can expect 400 wells and will take many years to complete. And TBN is ready to raise more funds next month with a farm down. Hope to hear more from POQ next week and not have the clarity of a coherent plan kicked down the road while we wait for the 30 day. If we get priced out of Phase Two it could be many years before other areas are proven up.

Long gone are the days when the goal was to develop the asset and sell. Not sure what the plan is now other than maximize value for shareholders as POQ asserts. Which has not come to fruition and I struggle to see how good numbers benefits us since we still need lots of $$ to stay in the game. POQ last reported there would be several updates that would help propel our share prices. But that did not happen. Still do not see how this check board approach has benefits us as many have asserted. Sure hope I am just being a nervous shareholder.

A few observations coming from a person who has little technical insight. Though FOG’s CEO assumed during our investor update ten months that the checkers board would cover the deeper part of the basin…that does not appear to be the case. And TBN will be using RBC capital markets to farm down their position in Phase Two which appears to be the largest portion of land in the deepest part of the basis. Not sure what to make of that. But I think that will give us an idea of value. It also appears they are confident in the current well we are waiting on for 30 days results because that biding process will begin as soon as they release the 30 days results. And I assume they have a good idea of what that looks like now. It will be interesting to see if DW and others drive the bidding price up or if they simply sit back and do nothing. Time will tell. Def getting interesting.

And am I wrong that initially the pilot project involved six wells? Now three more and possibly a fourth assuming they can fix the issue with the weakness in the casing. So perhaps they are confident in better flow rates and the need for less wells to fulfill their commitment?

But I do still wonder how FOG will capitalize on this and turn this turd of an investment into something profitable. I do not find the 15 million for 100,000 acres to be useful to us. That equates to .15/share assuming all acreage is created equal…which I cannot imagine is the case. But the bidding war for Phase Two will be very interesting to watch. That should provide good insight to the leverage/value FOG might have at this point. Or it could completely blowup in TBN face and they could be choked out of the game.

Anyone know what FOG will have to raise to stay in these next few wells?

Also, while not confirmed, the total acreage covers most of the deep shale. All the more reason we want Empire to knock it out of the park with their shallower wells.