Member Info for 67Sam

We spent £37 Billion on private contracts for test and trace while choosing not to pay people to self isolate while infectious. We are lucky to have benefitted from one of the best global responses to C19 vaccination and I tend to agree that has shifted public sentiment away from one of the worst global responses at pandemic control. I have mentioned before I give more credit for the successful bit to the effectiveness of our NHS infrastructure than to our present Government. UK national debt is now nearly £2 trillion, almost 100% of GDP. This follows ten years of the wealth gap widening through the manipulation of austerity policy in an effort to afford low taxation.
"Austerity.... could easily have spared the poor, if the political will had existed to do so" (Professor Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, 2018).

Simeon
https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/virus-sars-cov-2/variants-of-coronavirus-sars-cov-2
No I did not conclude we must remain locked down forever. I was making a point that it is still a risk for the future, and that what happens in the rest of the world matters - and the pandemic is still increasing globally. Its not that controversial a point of view.

eccles @ 8.53
"....linked to news about the health situation in India. What on earth that situation has got to do with LLOY profits defies normal reasoning".
You could always listen to Dr. Fauci's statement today
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/28/were-all-in-this-together-dr-fauci-says-world-has-failed-india-as-covid-cases-surge
and reflect upon what he means by an interconnected world. UK is experiencing a respite but the end of the pandemic is not yet in sight. Another lockdown in UK would kick the Lloyds SP back into touch, along with all the rest. Even if we avoid it, we cant recover from this as one tiny nation alone, or escape our responsibility to help others. The virus looks set to continue to mutate, producing variants that can be transmitted globally. You dismiss this concern as illogical stupidity.
"Interconnected world". Think about it.
Look at what is happening in the worlds second highest populated nation, almost 1.4 Billion people.
Please think before you confuse this with sentiment.

livestock - I agree the pandemic is still increasing. I think its inevitable that UK cases will rise again but the test will be to see if hospital admissions and mortality increase at similar rates and overwhelm systems (as in India right now and here last year) or if they are less impacted because of vaccinations already carried out. If they don't then the infection rate will be less important - If they do I agree Lloyds will be hammered back into the 30's. But it remains to be seen. I noticed the media coverage emphasising GDP forecast growth and UK employers covid responses which all sounds positive for UK and hopefully for Lloyds.

hahaha desperate Liz Truss seeks wine and phone deals with the scraping of the colonial barrel.

Being rescued in a systemic collapse in 2008, I sort of assumed it was an added benefit for a long term investment. I didn't reference that about todays 1.7p drop, but on the basis of holding long term and continuing to add at a lower price.
But wtf do I know, I came here to learn after all.

LongTimeInvestor
Glad you got yourself a giggle.
Your usually an intelligent poster.

LongTimeInvestor
Read the whole comment not just your excerpt. It's an assumption. Based on their actions in 2008 when it seemed to me to become part nationalised. Co-incidence that Coutts ranks among them? Or did I get that bit wrong? Maybe it was coincidence. I might always be wrong, and you're welcome to put fwd an opposing argument if you can think of one.
But yes I am for real.
What are you for?

Well like others here have said, I would expect the near term SP influence will be the impact of Qtr 1 results.
I don't cheerlead for this stock. Ive added because I had a 60% loss by last Sept. I broke even very briefly this month having doubled my holding by buying each month. I don't have an "investment thesis" for this stock, just an assumption the government won't let it go bust and that the UK is a smart country and will eventually recover.
In the long term I hope it will reward with higher income and perhaps some SP growth but I have no opinion on estimating a value this week next week etc.
Whats more interesting about the value is the belief that motivate peoples opinions. Whats your forecast and why?

Stoxx 600 biggest drop this year
FTSE 100 biggest drop in 2 months
DAX biggest drop since late-Jan
CAC biggest drop this year
IBEX biggest fall this year

LBG was the thirteenth biggest faller today. I have no idea about the nuances between LBG valuation and other UK banks except for reading the views here and in the media. But generally I figure LBG will only recover its pre pandemic losses when just about everything is in place for a sustained UK economic recovery. I don't know when that will be or how much it is dependent on a broader International recovery. But it isn't happening yet. Im less pessimistic than I felt three months ago when I forecast 28p at year end but liable for bigger losses now, having added each month throughout the last years SP crash.

Domestic picture in UK is very low case rate. Globally the pandemic is still growing at an exponential rate. Focus is shifting towards variants of concern and borders between countries are hardening. So not out of the woods yet and too early to know how high rates will peak again in the UK.

Welcome. Yes I hope so too. It appealed to me as I thought it was well written, seems to add to the case for continuing to hold Lloyds, and offers some possible reasons for longer term optimism about the SP.

To qualify for the most recently declared dividend, you must have bought the stock before the ex-dividend date and still have held it at market open on the ex-dividend date.

https://www.ft.com/content/979714e5-f93b-4a4c-a445-8b2e8ccef80c

Also feels like better spend when compared with the last share buy backs at 60-70p

I read it as £9 Billion invested, I didn't think it was a donation. Increasing the supply of social housing stock is a very fast way of making along term impact on peoples lives as well as a boost to the construction sector and seemed to me a credible move for its ESG aspirations. You could see it as accelerating some of the changes needed at Lloyds and becoming stronger, making Lloyds a better investment prospect as a result. Equally I could be alone in that view as well.

Everyone in England has free access to COVID19 vaccination regardless of immigration status or right to remain, and also other vaccinations are available as well, not just COVID. It could be argued that this policy is more to benefit the rest of the country as much as those individuals. For people who choose to remain here despite having no recourse to public funds, the challenge is in both in reaching them and securing vaccine acceptance. Many people lack literacy in their first language so in some senses I would say there is a targeted approach here in ensuring that effort is made to meet this need. None of this really affects the Hostile Environment policy that leave the same people very vulnerable to forced labour/modern slavery, coercive sex working and sometimes appalling living conditions. It's interesting to think about "the right to move to safety", I often think it would be much more popular down here in the South West if Hinckley Point was to go bang.
And yes, meanwhile, us lot can still buy Lloyds shares at less than 40p each.

My guess is if Lloyds results show a similar loss of profit and increased provision for bad debt as Barclays then the share price is going back to the low 30's, regardless of any dividend reinstatement. I still hold but remain pessimistic about sp prospects for the rest of this year.

well thats a relief then perhaps my pessimism is unfounded.