Member Info for 67Sam

Zirp
Not exactly euthanasia but an inevitable consequence of a cash strapped system that keeps frail older people clean and fed and not much more.
Don't think I can recall a more obsequious politician than Han**** and I was glad to see the back of him. I doubt it's the last time we will see him though. This government have stalled prevaricated and ignored the need to reform older age care for years now.

Scb
Yes I agree some things have been learned and accepted. Covid in care homes was largely from asymptomatic patients who were not tested when returning from hospital and aerosol spread was less acknowledged than droplet. There was no choice to delay discharge because hospital admission rates were so high. The size of most care homes would mean transmission occurred very easily and clinical vulnerabilities led to far worse outcomes for residents. What many people do not recognise, including our Home Secretary, is that Covid has a disproportionate impact on poorer people who have fewer protective factors in their lives. All very well for him to say don't cower from Covid but he doesn't rely on Universal credit.
You mention SARS as "listed as more risk than Covid on the government website".
On the page headed "high consequence infectious diseases", read the bit where it says "No cases reported since 2004, but SARS remains a notifiable disease under the International Health Regulations (2005), hence its inclusion here". Mortality rates in SARS were much higher compared to Covid 19 but this one has had such rapid transmission globally that 200M people have had infections and over 4M people have died. The page goes on to mention "The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to consider COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)"
I agree that many lockdown habits have persisted. But hands face space is easily undermined at large gatherings. The fact so many people are refusing vaccination and some are complete disbelievers is still a cause for concern, if we are anticipating SARS Covid 2 remaining for years to come. I see it as we are starting to turn a corner but the scale of the impact economically and financially hasn't fully emerged yet, so we cant quite see whats waiting for us further on.
Hence my outlook for Lloyds is the dividend will remain prudent and the share price muted but we will see this week. Id be pleased to be proved wrong.

Rosewall
"As a country, are we coming out of the pandemic?"
A good question to be asking. We will shortly see an exit wave" as a result of ending restrictions. Rates of hospital admissions and daily deaths may or may not rise as steeply as before. "Pandemic" refers to a global or multi country situation so it cant really be answered just in terms of the UK. It remains to be seen how much more protection those who have been vaccinated will have this time. Those who have chosen to decline vaccination will face the rise in infections as before , except this time without any laws, just everyone taking personal responsibility. You can draw your own conclusions where that will lead.
As far as Im aware the current infections in UK are all Delta variant. PHE publish lists all variants of concern and variants under investigation on the gov.uk website. Genome sequencing takes time and is only conducted on random samples, not on every positive test. Good luck whatever you decide to do about vaccination.

southcoastbather
"Share buybacks, a special dividend, aggressive organic growth or even an acquisition are all possibilities"
Mind refreshed. Check. Big cash pile still there. No-one knows what it will be spent on. Back to my point aren't we?

Vallance today: "60% of hospitalisations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people". He said this was not surprising "because the vaccines are not 100% effective".
Read somewhere that BioNTech are developing a delta variant vaccine and I imagine there will be repeat processes if other variants that spread internationally. I still think economic recovery will be a drawn out affair and that makes Lloyds a very long term play. I don't really see much near term pressure upwards on the SP, even if half year results are equally stellar as Qtr 1 it will still take years to rebuild the dividend. Understand others are more optimistic though not so sure why. Understand there's a lot of money stacked up so far, but don't trust that the bad debt picture is as rosy as it seems or that much of that cash pile will be returned to shareholders very quickly.

''For sure, be 34p next week though.''
Y__ ___ _ _______ _____

Who cares about the SP, thats the funniest thing Ive ever read on this board. LMAO.

Asp1
Well done. Thats one piece of good news today.

martinhorn
I felt like you at the start of this year but was proved wrong, in time. It's not a great outcome so far, but a significant improvement on where I was. All the best.

grahamsturman
markets will always come individual shares are a different thing.

We had unlocking and ending of restrictions down on our list of good news but the general response has been to see it as flagrant disregard for rising case rates. 50k new infections a day so will be keeping an eye on the death rates over the next weeks to see how quickly they rise. One set of good figures from Lloyds seems to have helped us all ignore the persistence of long term economic risk and uncertainty, which has been underlined since March 20 onwards.

Hollybean
Someone else posted this link originally but Ive followed it and I thought it was a good take on the "could go either way scenario". He identifies both possibilities but seems to come down on the side of a "decline thesis".
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/why-lloyds-bank-and-ftse-100-are-critical-juncture-ii520638

I suppose it depends on how much of a rise that is and what benefits you get? £21 isn't that much more per month than I get charged at First Direct. The benefits for that fee are largely worthless, but I prefer a flat monthly fee than one based on each transaction.

Barnyards - yes its a silly game but its free. One thing it demonstrates is optimism/pessimism vs current share price. I imagine some of these bets eg. 50p plus are fairly tongue in cheek. But as an exercise it crystallises peoples opinions by naming a price.
"much prefer to have a life" yes we all have lives, but I would much prefer to have a life with fewer money worries. Part of pursuing that brings me to this forum and to read the wide range of posts. Some of which are from people I judge to be better informed than myself, and some not. Whats the attraction for you?

Hollybean................43.20p
BaffledbyZIRP...............44.0p
67Sam.........................44.24p
Faulkes …………….45.50p
dividendchaser.......46.00p
Eightyeight88..........46.80p
hardup.....................47.55p
SUFCESSEX .............48.00p
chrissw01................ 48.25p
Falky.........................51.00p
Livestock..................55.00p

Asp 1
yes I would unless I had sold that debt on to some one else. Morally I agree with you but shares are a share of future profits and that appears to include the deferred dividend.

Asp1
"returned to those shareholders from whom it was taken". I can relate to that feeling but I took at as the dividend was declared but payment deferred until "safer" times. When those times come it belongs to the profile of current shareholders not people who have since sold. I may well be wrong but I don't know how they could administer payments to ex shareholders?

doh
NOT SP
dividend will have to be progressive I mean

"....an appropriate degree of caution around the level of any shareholder distributions".
I wonder if that means we will just get another 0.57p this year? SP will have to be progressive for a very long time to get back near 5%.

I also liked this, it widens the income stream for lloyds. A property crash will dent the asset value (if it comes) but long term well managed fully occupied rental income is I think a shrewd move - provided they have recruited enough expertise to do it well.

Yes I hope he is proved right too and agree often posts interesting views. Thats why I was curious to ask, not because I doubt his judgement. I remember a comment Falkland posted when the SP was in the twenties or thirties "This is the accumulation phase" and it helped me in so much as I continued to feel confident averaging down was worth the risk of carrying a much bigger holding.

falklandinvestor
I wouldn't be surprised by some quick hikes in SP upon divi announcement but I would be interested to know for what reason/event you anticipate a 10% gain to be achieved this week, or if your view is based on gut feeling?