Member Info for 3bear

Here's a post of mine from March 2024:

"Lots of talking heads on youtube predicting an imminent breakout in the GP to 2500. Wouldn't it be nice if they were right?"

The GP had just broken through 2000 for the first time in years. Centamin had been hedging the GP at 1900 in case of a drop. 2500 seemed like fantastical nonsense. But they were right.

Crazy couple of years.

The theory that makes most sense to me is the naming of Kevin Warsh, so-called interest rate hawk and believer in hard money, as Trump's pick for Fed chair. Therefore Warsh is going to jack up interest rates and refuse to print money. Gold screams "eek" and jumps off a cliff.

But wait...Trump is still desperate for lower rates and easy monetary policy...so what do you think Fed chair puppet Warsh is really going to do?

I'm still long gold and long AU even though central bank buying has eased off a bit. Big picture - gold dipped below 4500 for a few minutes this morning and is currently back at 4750. AU is going to be reporting record numbers for the next two quarters. I'm holding tight.

Horgan went - his linkedin entry is quite funny, it just says "pizza delivered", a reference to his criticism of the previous management at Sukari who "couldn't deliver a pizza let alone guidance". Ross Jerrard is now CFO at Caledonian mining.

Decent management fair enough Sotolo but I do think Anglo came in and reaped the benefit of the excellent management of the Sukari deposit by Horgan and his team. Horgan inherited a mess, a pit on the brink of collapse and an operation so cack-handed the excavator buckets didn't even match the trucks. He took the underground in house resulting in massive savings and absolutely sorted the place out in my view. It was a shame for him that just when he was about to reap the benefit of three years' skilful investment the rug was pulled and Anglo gets the credit. That said I have to admit Anglo are smashing it out of the park at 130,000-odd oz a quarter, what an asset. Anglo's management do seem good but they are still quite a high-cost producer with a group AISC of 1750 versus 1350-1550 for the likes of Agnico and Barrick. That said I'm certainly not complaining, it's been a fantastic investment just feel Horgan deserves credit for the turnaround.

Hi again Spot, I think Mr Bond was talking about the silver price while you were meaning the share price - but I could be wrong.

Anyway you were right - Anglogold at 104 - goodness gracious.

Never mind £3 per share Sotolo, we just blasted through £5 per share in old centamin money. What a ride.

Absolutely agree nunquam. It is getting scary out there.

Extraordinary times. Maybe 4500 is the new floor.

Most police chiefs in the UK have said they would prefer to decriminalise cocaine because its prohibition, just as with alcohol in the 1930s, gives so much revenue and power to organised crime within the UK. I think the government is happy to keep it illegal because it means most of the social damage is exported to the country of origin. If it were legal in the US and Europe, Columbia and others would have an enormous and legitimate source of hard currency, the criminal cartels would be dealt a crushing blow. Presumably increased legal use in the first world would result in poor social outcomes among its citizenry. This way the people of the developing world suffer most. It's a wicked world my friends.

Aha, the US has just seized said tanker, the Marinera, south of Greenland... complete with a Russian flag painted on the hull.

I might just start digging a bunker in the back yard...

Cheers Spot64, I think those US assets are chasing the Venezuelan tanker that's heading for the Baltic with a boatload of oil for Russia. Looks like they're planning to attack or board it...

If Anglo were valued similarly to Newmont the SP would be somewhere between 120 (5x sales) and 160 (20x free cash flow) so I think there is still room for upside IF the GP stays above 4000.

But AU has gone up so much already, shouldn't we sell off a load to re-balance?

In my case, I sold two thirds of my original Centamin stake on the way up, much too soon it turns out, but have recovered most of my initial investment as a result. With that in mind: There is a good chance the AU SP will hit 100+. Dividends are growing. So I'm holding on to everything I've got left....although I will sometimes try to sell a chunk on a new high hoping to get back in on a pull back. Although reasonably successful, this play has been trickier and more stressful than it might sound!

GLA

Hmm. I have been reading about the Weimar inflation in Germany which was stopped in its tracks in 1923 by two central measures:

1) Creating a new currency tied to hard assets including gold, industry and agricultural land.

2) Sacking 700,000 government workers to bring state spending under control.

3) er, that's it.

No chance any first world government has the will or mandate to attempt either of those things today.

So "go gold" it is.

GP touched 4501 overnight, now 4477.

Can this be sustainable?

Hi Riskass, I think 100, which would give the company a market cap of around US$50 billion is entirely possible IF, and it is a big IF, the GP stays above 4000. I think it probably will, but who actually knows? China could suddenly decide it's got enough and scale back or stop its central bank buying. World peace could break out. Anything could happen.

In 1975, in the middle of the biggest gold bull market in history, the GP suddenly dropped by 50%. Eventually it resumed its upward march to even greater highs, but the massive slump was very difficult for smaller investors. If the same thing happened now and gold went back to 2000-odd, Anglo, with its (disappointing compared to peers) AISC of 1760 would not be looking so good. Difficult to know what to do but good luck to you and everyone here particularly all the old Centamin crew.

I'm holding until this company feels expensive. A $40 billion market cap is roughly four times sales and 10x free cash flow, which seems reasonable, not expensive. Having said that if the gold price comes off the SP will crater in which case I'd think about buying a bit more.

Now we have 4200-dollar gold will that be enough to give the SP a boost? It feels as if the market just doesn't believe this GP is sustainable...

Extraordinary - peace declared in the Middle East and it's "who cares up we go". GP seems to be defying gravity at the minute.

Wow, never thought I'd actually see this number.

Interesting video thanks Rebess, I like the guy's argument right up to when he says bitcoin is the answer. I believe Clem Chambers has got it right when he says gold is for war and bitcoin is for flight. I think gold is becoming the de facto global reserve currency with so much war about so continue to hold all the Au I have left - about a third of my original centamin stake.