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Centamin is now producing $300-400million Free Cash Flow annually. So this deal values Cey at just 6x to 8x Free Cash Flow and throws in Doropo and EDX for free. That's not a deal it's daylight robbery. The true value of this company should be at least 10x FCF which would make it worth 3-4billion and Anglo have grabbed it for less than 2.5. That's why I'm holding, the only way not to be mugged off in this deal is to become and Anglo shareholder and benefit from the backdoor skulduggery of the institutional investors of both miners. I am voting No but that will make no difference whatever, the deal's been done.

* 0.06983 is the correct number

Fair enough marmot but at the end of the day a centamin share is now worth exactly .06893 of one Anglo share plus 9.5p and no-one will pay more than that?

Dasut - there was a warning at the beginning of the presentation not to ask about the deal and stick to operational matters. Horgan went through the numbers at a canter and there were no questions from anyone. He also said it would would be his last quarterly presentation if "everything goes to plan" with the bid. Very weird. Such spectacular results and no questions. I missed the original presentation but you can re-watch it

Free Cash Flow for for this quarter was $103m. That's more than double the FCF for the whole of 2023 (49m). The timing of this deal is hugely suspicious to me. It's almost as if they rushed to agree terms before this massive uplift in financial performance was made public and fully understood. Now the Cey SP is capped by what Anglo has agreed to pay for it. This stinks.

Tibbs I buy and sell US stocks all the time in my Sipp and there's never any tax charge? I intend to hold Cey until my shares convert to Anglo. Nevada looks like a superb opportunity and the company looks undervalued. It's got a market cap of less than $12bn and revenues this year will be $5-6bn, ok they made a loss in 2022, operating costs are high but coming down. The impact of 2600 dollar gold on their Q3 results is gonna be spectacular.

However it goes I think its time for a BOD change and a new CEO!

That's exactly what this deal will do.

Tibbs, you've got to get this bee out of your bonnet

Sukari operation...still suffering the problems of inherent mediocre grades.

It isn't. It's a bulk tonnage open pit that produced 325,000oz last year at 1g/tonne. That's not a problem it's a tier one asset?

Mystifying - Anglo's gonna report Q3 revenue in excess of one and a half billion dollars and a rocketing FCF. That should give the SP a boost

MrBond are they cash strapped? Their H1 numbers say Anglo is holding $983m in cash and has an undrawn RCF of $1.25bn?

The SP will pop in the morning

Yep gold nudging 2600 let's hope we get a lift in the morning

Wham bam thank you Pam! Congratulations on a successful investment.

Yes I think you're right Paul, Cey's value is now dependent on the Anglo shareprice. My guess for the next day or two - the Fed is going to cut its rate by 0.25% and Anglo is going to take a bit of a dive because the possibility of a 0.5% cut is behind the record GP and the lesser cut will disappoint. I might well be wrong about that and I'm still holding out of pure stubbornness. Should have sold some yesterday never mind.

Cmon guys let's give Siko a boost, promising start here. I visited Cairo around 2006 and was struck by the warm welcome, the hard working open-mindedness of the people but extreme poverty around every corner. Chance here to get a little money directly to where it's needed without all the trappings and G&A waste of a major charity.

Also Anglo have yet to report on Q3 when they'll have 600,000oz at 2450 to report = $1.5billion Q3 revenue at which point their share price might well do a hockey stick.

I'm trying to work out whether to take a stake in Anglo or cash out - any help or observations would be greatly appreciated:

Fourth largest gold producer in the world, 2023 revenue was $4.5billion on 2.6Moz gold and 4.4Moz silver. Currently valued at $12billion market cap

In spite of this they managed to make a loss in 2023 of 200 million with an average realised GP of 1928/oz sold. So will do much better in 2024.

First question I ask of any company is how much debt. Anglo owes $2.4bn, has £955m in cash and a $1250M RCF.

AISC for the group is a shocker at $1598.

The new chief exec Alberto Calderon is three years into a major restructuring of the business and what I can't quite judge yet is whether Anglo is a turnaround play - or if the turnaround is already priced in as the SP is up 65% in a year.

Like Cey in the past they have been chronically undervalued and have underperformed. They've just completed a corporate re-structure - listing on the NYSE and HQ in UK - which they hope will reduce their cost of capital and boost the SP.

Tier 1 mines are Geita (Tanzania) 450koz, Iduapriem (Ghana) 268koz, Obuasi, (Ghana) 224koz, Kibali (DRC) 343koz, Tropicana (Australia) 310koz

Tier 2 Sunrise Dam (Australia) 252koz , Siguiri, (Guinea) 221koz, Cerro Vanguardia (Argentina) 152koz, AGA Mineração (Brazil) 294koz, Serra Grande (Brazil) 86koz

Anglo is also developing a potential Tier 1 resource in Nevada and construction permitting was expected in H1 2025 for the North Bullfrog project. The Merlin ore body has an inferred Mineral Resource of 9.1Moz at 0.99g/t.

Anglo has a good safety record, they talk about a culture of continuous improvement (where have we heard that one before) and are moving to grid and renewable power where possible.

The share is not liked because it has so much exposure to Africa and has a track record of high costs however this is improving.

The SP was $16.50 as recently as January so I'm wondering if the potential gains are already in and whether there is much more upside from here.

Hope this sets out a few fundamentals and as I said any thoughts gratefully received.

Hi all, it's like moving into a new home! FWIW I'm hoping to see the SP a bit higher before I'll sell about half and leave the other half to ride on AU. They have a not totally unrelated story - new CEO (Calderon) brought in to drive down AISC and rationalise the business, he's three years in and doing good work from what I can make out so far.

Hoping the AU stock opens up at 1430 as the GP is 2570 and gives Cey a boost. Would make a change for a Friday afternoon!

Hi Tibbs

1) Doropo made sense for Cey because it is a single asset producer which is a big red flag for generalist investors and makes it a riskier stock.

2) Anglo is a massive company ten times the size of Cey with tier one assets on three continents. Its ASIC is off the scale at 1600 odd and to bring this down they are rationalising their portfolio to focus on the biggest tier one assets, Sukari fits this profile, Doropo doesn't because it isn't big enough.