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Nunquam I guess it is mainly the GP but also bubbling under is the fact that extensive investment in the open pit and underground is starting to make itself felt. Look at the increase in resources, they've been growing faster than they can get the gold out of the ground for the last three years. Also base efficiencies such as tonnes hauled per truck are all on the up and costs heading in the right direction at last. Your 105 is in the bank as far as I'm concerned. I hope to see a run up past 110 on Q4 results if the GP holds and may take a little profit if that happens but CEY is still a LTH for me..
This made a lot of sense to me. I like grant williams, whether you agree with him or not, he expresses his views very clearly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHQpVMsm5d4
4.11
This (recent gold price) spike...was almost certainly a weaponised trial balloon warning shot that was deliberately triggered in thin conditions as US treasuries put on sale to fund a sovereign sized purchase order.
This guy is literally - and one has to be very careful using literally, but here I feel it is appropriate - talking nonsense.
The GP spike was the market response to the Fed being more doveish on interest rates than expected.
Also, I have a bunker in my garden full of weaponised trial balloons and in my experience no serious gold investor would ever waste one on a warning shot.
Hi Rebess - yep fingers crossed. I think they're going to make it. They had piles of ore ready for processing left over from Q3 and they have "flexibility" in the open pit , meaning they can focus effort on higher grade zones in the short term. Horgan's main job on appointment was to improve delivery on guidance. He accused previous management of "not being able to deliver a pizza". It would make him choke to miss Q4 guidance - so I am confident they'll make it.
Hi Sotolo, for CEY to hit the lower end of guidance, which they say they are going to do, they need to produce 130,000oz or thereabouts in Q4. If not they miss guidance which Horgan will be keen to avoid.
Cey has been grossing a minimum $1900/oz since Oct 1 so should be reporting revenues north of US$250million in January if the GP holds up.
As to profit I have no idea. I find the accounting for capex on top of Egyptian govt share, royalties etc fairly impenetrable. Also they are bringing forward some of 2024's capex into this year so that may put a dent in 2023 profits I guess?
Hi Paul, when the GP dipped to 1825 in October, the back of my envelope says Cey will have recovered somewhere in the region of a million bucks from the put option (would appreciate anyone else's maths on this - I make it two weeks at an average 1850 means they could have recovered 50 bucks an ounce on around 20,000oz ?) That means they're still around 5 million in the hole but still have 20,000oz a month guaranteed at 1900 until the end of June 2024. This seems a sensible move when you're about to plough $400m into the ground in West Africa?
Just wanted to point out that with the GP at this level CEY is grossing more than $4million every day. (Mon-Fri)
I hope everyone has their seats in the upright position and their tray tables secured. I look forward to waving at Cowichan from 50,000ft.
Tibbs I do find Maguire really difficult to follow but think his central message never changes - the gold price is being secretly suppressed by a FOMC conspiracy and is about to rocket in value at any second . Has he ever been bearish about gold or any other pm?
Tibbs, electricity from the grid is close to half the cost of diesel generation on site. The 40-odd million buck cost of grid connection will be recovered in just over one year - ONE YEAR.
Sukari will call on it most at night when load demand from the rest of Egypt is low.
In the case of power outage or blackout they can revert to diesel generation anytime it's needed.
Grid connection is a superb development and absolute no brainer, it cannot happen soon enough.
Amazon should be charged an up front license to operate in the UK based on a percentage of global turnover. Then whatever magic tricks they pulled on PL accounting we'd have our cash already. Another benefit is that watching amazon's accountants scrambling to disguise global turnover would then become event television, ozarks eat your heart out. Sorry this is off topic