Member Info for 3bear

Holy Mackerel!

Yep nudging 2550 just now and that's pushing Anglo and Cey's SP higher

Looks like Cey is going to generate FCF of US$200-250m in FY24. So the 2.5billion offer will be 10 times to 12.5 times free cash flow. That's a good deal - for Anglo.

Hi Gep75, it's being unanimously recommended to shareholders by the board so we'll get a vote on it. Off top of my head institutional investors own about 66% of the stock (please correct me on this number if I've got it wrong) so if they all go for it, it won't really matter what the retail mob on here think...which is a shame.

Wise words sotolo.

The 9% drop in the Anglo price values the offer at 149 a share. Which is exactly the SP we're looking at.

BushyT - yep that's true but they must have support from the institutional investors otherwise they wouldn't have got this far?

Also wonder if the Q2 numbers which disappointed the market and saw an SP dip were manipulated to the downside ahead of this deal?

I'm not leaping around the room punching the air on this bid but like some others I'm holding a large stake and it's worth 25% more than it was last night. But I can't help counting the teeth on this gift horse - like I said mixed feelings.

And I agree - if the Q3 numbers had been presented to market in full, the SP would have gone pretty vertical making it more expensive to buy the company. Proof of the pudding will be in the Anglo SP later - that's when we'll know the real value of this offer.

The value of this offer is massively dependent on the Anglo SP.

For every 10,000 Cey shares you get 698 shares in Anglo plus US$1250 in cash - about £950 sterling.

Anglo closed at US$28.80 valuing 10000 Cey shares at about £15,300 plus nearly a grand in cash takes you to about 1.63 a share.

Q3 numbers are off the scale - $76m FCF in TWO MONTHS!!!! that's almost double what they did in the whole first half of the year. Imagine what those numbers would have done to the SP on their own. Now we'll never know.

Like Razors I think 1.63 is fair, but as others have pointed out if the Anglo SP tanks later it'll be worth less than that. Really mixed feelings.

Gold up, UK house prices up, Cey down. I just hope Q3 profits will light this candle on Oct 17.

Mr Bond, while you're waiting you could read the 832 pages of the report? The geology is way over my head but the rest is approachable and even fascinating in parts. Mind you I've only got as far as p70... not sure I'll make it to the end

On the other hand, the Bank of England reckons £100 in 1930 when they would exchange GBP for gold, had the purchasing power of £5,800 today.

The pound sterling is so called cos King Offa of Mercia divided a pound of silver into 240 silver pennies in about 770AD. A pound of sterling silver (92.5% pure) is worth about £300 today. So the GBP has devalued by 30,000% in the last 1250 years. I hope this information is helpful.

Jeff Christian: "He sounded like an attention-seeking fraud to us...and we said so.

“No one in the precious metals trading community in London or New York had ever heard of him. Goldman Sachs and J. Aron had no record of ever employing him. The LBMA had no records of him. When major news organizations approached him to write about his allegations of market manipulation and asked him to credentialize himself, to prove he was really a bullion trader at a major bank, he refused every time to provide any evidence he really was a trader

Always thought Maguire was a total fraud.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/10/24/cpm-group-alleges-whistleblower-maguire-has-no-metals-history-silver-summit/

GP above 2500 in anticipation of an imminent fed cut of 25bps is one explanation doing the rounds

This is francophone West Africa. It was prob abbreviated to Cent CI somewhere and translated from the French.

It appears as Centamin CI on the cadastre?

Hi Paul - the new mine at Doropo will get a final investment decision in "H1 2025" according to the latest company results. It will take about two and a half years to build and get into operation at a cost of about $400million funded by sukari cashflow and debt.