Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dasut - like you baffled by this really significant and sustained uphill charge after months and months languishing below the 90p mark. The GP alone won't do it. Also we have a long way to go before the AISC is brought under control. The turnaround within the company doesn't seem to explain a 50% uplift since Oct 19. I have a nasty suspicious side that wonders if someone out there knows something we don't. At the risk of sparking off a load of conspiracy theories - could there be a bid in the offing ?
Hi Dan, love the 'we demand more' sentiment but think you're being a bit harsh?
The simple moving average of the London fix for Q4 was $1730 and the price realised usually comes in a touch below this number - hence my guess of $1721 for Q4 sales.
Also Horgan went to some length to stress they boosted production in Q3 to give themselves an easier run in Q4 and still expected to hit mid-guidance for FY22 - implying production around 114,000oz for the last quarter.
You can't seriously be accusing the management of corruption if these sort of numbers come in?
I've been trying to find the company's previous AISC guidance for 2023.
Best I can do is P36 of the Investor Presentation for December 2021: 450-475,000oz @ $975-1200/oz sold.
This was a hasty AISC upgrade from two months previously in the October 21 presentation (p10) : 450-475 @ $900-1075
From this point the company has not mentioned AISC guidance again as far as I can see - but I've got a niggling memory that production was upgraded to 460-480, just can't find it?
The fierce inflation of the last year must have nudged the predicted AISC numbers higher - perhaps the reason the company hasn't mentioning AISC guidance for more than a year. I'm itching to know what they think this number will be.
On a more cheery note, GP 1828 as I write - which in the 3bear cave warrants a lower case woohoo.
Hoping this might make it easier to read. HNY all.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue 194.5m 794.4m 733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised 1721/oz 1792/oz 1797/oz -0.3%
AISC 165m 622.6m 502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold 1460 1405 1234 +13.9%
Below is my guess for the Q4 results and FY22 numbers. I've been having trouble tabulating so apols if they're not so easy to read.
Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue $194.5m $794.4m $733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised $1721/oz $1792/oz $1797/oz -0.3%
AISC $165m $622.6m $502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold $1460 $1405 £1234 +13.9%
Production, sales and revenue all looking good.
It is the market reaction to the AISC figure that concerns me - up almost a quarter on 2021, although we have known about this for some time.
I think the AISC guidance for 2023 will be a key driver of share price movement on Jan 20 but FWIW I believe 2023 will be even better than 2022 at Sukari, so bring it on.
Happy New Year and good luck everyone.
Just wondering what impact Q4 numbers will have as both production and revenue will be down on that stellar Q3.
However, FY22 numbers are going to be very encouraging overall.
If they are guiding a sensible AISC for FY23 the SP could really fly.
I think the supposed logic goes like this. Inflation lower = lower bank rate = lower yields on cash = lower penalty for holding non-yielding assets like gold? Although another factor is that 12 years of extravagant QE and zero rate cash by has inflated the price of all assets, housing, equities, second hand cars and - of course gold - to unprecedented levels so a bit of row back here and there to be expected. You have nailed the other theory - bobbins!
Cheers Cowichan, in fact cey wouldn't have needed to raise any capital as they had the cash sitting in the bank. Hmm.
Big picture though, the mine is better run now than it was in the past as far as I can make out and the news seems to keep getting better quarter on quarter
Spoonington Sotolo - where is the evidence that waste management has been inefficient? It seems to me that efficiency is one thing horgan is red hot on - from the size of the excavator buckets to grid connection and almost every single point in between. I've only been a shareholder since Apr 21 so bow to your more than two decades experience. But...it seems to me the last lot focused on delivery of 500oz/pa to the exclusion of all else until the pit literally fell in on top of them? The contractor must be making a 20% margin on clearing the waste but what were the alternatives - buy a fleet of trucks and excavators and do it in house? Max cap ex up front to do it that way?