Member Info for 3bear

Hi confluence,

This is my take, others may think I'm in cuckoo land, but for what it's worth:

The fundamental numbers for Centamin are stellar. It has no debt, it is one of the safest and therefore best run tier one mines in the industry. Three years of heavy investment into Sukari sorting out major problems and inefficiences is nearing completion and about to unleash a cash pumping machine as production hits somewhere around 500koz pa and all its niggles get ironed out causing the AISC to fall.

Secondly, I believe the GP is breaking out to a new level poss 2500. Even if it. isn't, the debt burden on first world powers is approaching intolerable levels (US annual interest payments on their debt are now greater than the GDP of Canada - UK interest on debt is an HS2 project every year) the viability of fiat currency as a store of value is under threat. As the possibility of a debt crisis looms central banks are buying tonnes of gold. This company produces more than 15 tonnes of it annually and the price is going up.

Third, the company's growth prospects are fantastic. The Doropo project in Cote D'Ivoire is about to get the green light with first gold around 2028 I guess. So the share price may dip as they sink $400 million into the West African ground for no return in the short term but long term it's all good. The possibility of another major ore body being discovered in the Eastern Desert - to quote another poster on here - is "mouthwatering" with Little Sukari and a neighbouring deposit significant targets under intensive investigation as we speak.

Fourth - Gold stocks as a sector have been significantly undervalued for years now and I think as the GP breaks out so will the miners.

Fifth, the significant downside risk to me - apart from those inherent in mining which is a risky, dangerous and unpredictable industry - is the state of the Egyptian economy and the fact the country is run by a totalitarian dictator, Sisi. If he decided to nationalise the mine and let the shareholders go hang no one could stop him. The risk of an Egyptian default on its debt is extremely high. Egypt is also at the centre of a region of extreme geopolitical risk, note its border with Gaza.

However it is my belief that Sisi is desperate to exploit the country's mineral wealth and wants to attract billions in foreign investment to get at it at no cost to himself. He won't do that if goes about confiscating assets. Egypt's huge strategic importance to the whole world (Suez canal just one globally significant factor) ) means it is too important to be allowed to descend into total chaos. Note the IMF intervention and decision to let the EGP float. I think the first world powers would go to enormous lengths to shore the country up if it was seriously heading for collapse.

So in short, a fantastic company but in the wrong place. You have to be happy with a high level of risk to hold or trade this stock but the potential rewards are enormous.

Welcome back Mr Gnome

Well done Paul, a 3% return in a matter of a few days is good going. Work out the equivalent AER and you'll be delighted.

Thanks skydriver - and no I'm not skydriver as well!

Paul and Robbie understand how frustrating Cey is especially in light of bumper dividends in the past. To put the other side of the argument for a minute - the current dividend pay out is 55% of free cash flow which is well above the 30% minimum we are entitled to. The company continued paying dividends even during the costliest stage of the Sukari reboot with gold down at 1700-odd when FCF turned negative - they didn't have to pay us anything at all at that point but did.

The hedge on 1900 was not an attempt to predict the GP it was insurance in case the GP fell with Doropo about to get the green light when they.'re going to need $400m in the bank. If your house doesn't burn down you don't say to yourself what a waste my insurance premium was - although £6million is an expensive policy I'll give you that.

Also Paul appreciate you would prefer cash now but remember Warren Buffett never paid a dividend in his life. Appreciate Horgan is not Buffett and none of us has unlimited time but I'm excited to see what Horgan does with the turbo-boosted cash pump he has created at sukari. I don't think paying a bigger dividend is anywhere near the top of his list unfortunately.

Well said Cowichan, 100% agree

I did say that you were wrong about Capital Drilling

I didn't *** you off or get offensive?

It means production will be lower than expected. ie, less than 25% of annual guidance.

Horgan says this is because of maintenance issues in Q1 and the rest of the year will be better. Many on here suspect it's because he somehow grabbed a few thousand Q1 ounces to help him meet the FY23 production guidance of 450,000oz which he met by a very narrow margin indeed (58oz.) (Yep 58. Count 'em)

Big spike first thing followed by quite a lot of profit taking, Hard to know and don't want to jinx anything

Thanks Steve.

Alea jacta est

I chose a big HOLD today. With the GP suddenly at 2181 and record revenues of $892million to report I am hoping for a bit of a boost in the morning. GLA

No Cowichan you are wrong. Capital have done a superb job at a reasonable price. It made financial sense to contract out this work because buying the 17 trucks and three excavators to do the work in house and then have to write them off was financial nonsense and you know it. Also a healthy competition has grown between the two fleets Cey and Capital as they vie with each other to to prove which is the best maintained and most efficient at moving tonnes. Picking a good contractor that delivers excellent results ahead of time and budget and sticking with them is good business, good practice and good for the shareholders.

Tibbs - it may be that Cote D'Ivoire is politically and financially more stable than Egypt at the minute, does that affect your view?

Well it's busted through that this morning to 108.

Start of last week I noticed the SP weaker in the mornings then picking up as US markets opened. Be interesting to see what happens today

the batsman's holding, the bowler's willie.

must admit i regret a couple of my own recent posts on here for having a pop at people. it's not good. we're supposed to be sharing views on cey to the upside or down to see what others invested or interested in this company think about them. instead we seem to be sniping at one another more and more. i am irritated by cowichan's constant negativity, some of it is questionable, some has real merit. he definitely isn't tibbs. i don't mind mizol/bond being the same person. i may be accused of wearing rose tinted glasses but i believe the current management is as honest as any management of a billion dollar mining company can fairly be expected to be. i will continue trading and holding this stock for the long term. the company is well run in my view, egypt on the other hand...that is a worry.

anyway, from now on, i'm going to try harder not to **** people off or get offensive just because i disagree with their position. gla

Flat or slightly higher than expected.

GP 2172

Horgan put emphasis on getting the ESIA right - Doropo is next door to a national park and there is an indigenous population that would have to move from some parts of the site.

Cowichan-Pangloss - so they should have ignored a pit wall in danger of collapse and bought some other mine somewhere else - seriously? Horgan and his team have done a fantastic job turning the Sukari mine in reality into what Pardey and crew were pretending it was.

So not much growth no, but SGM is fundamentally sound in a way it simply wasn't in years past.

AHA! Mr Ray O'Sunshine is back! With the GP pushing 2200 and Cey over the £1 mark I did wonder how gnashing must be your teeths? Hahaha.

Having said that you do raise a bloomin good point. Suddenly Doropo is no longer progressing to FID. That is not good news.

Tibbs do you actually listen to what this guy is saying - just curious?