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Hi Sotolo, for CEY to hit the lower end of guidance, which they say they are going to do, they need to produce 130,000oz or thereabouts in Q4. If not they miss guidance which Horgan will be keen to avoid.

Cey has been grossing a minimum $1900/oz since Oct 1 so should be reporting revenues north of US$250million in January if the GP holds up.

As to profit I have no idea. I find the accounting for capex on top of Egyptian govt share, royalties etc fairly impenetrable. Also they are bringing forward some of 2024's capex into this year so that may put a dent in 2023 profits I guess?

If GP stays at this level we are in for a big boost on Jan 20, 130,000oz and US$250,000,000+ revenue expected. Also Nugrus block assay results due, got to be some good news there.

Can't wait to hear the ASSAY RESULTS from the Nugrus block. Horgan says he's pacing around like an expectant dad in the labour suite as they are formally evaluated. Q4 results on Jan 20. Gold at record highs. Exciting!

Hi Paul, when the GP dipped to 1825 in October, the back of my envelope says Cey will have recovered somewhere in the region of a million bucks from the put option (would appreciate anyone else's maths on this - I make it two weeks at an average 1850 means they could have recovered 50 bucks an ounce on around 20,000oz ?) That means they're still around 5 million in the hole but still have 20,000oz a month guaranteed at 1900 until the end of June 2024. This seems a sensible move when you're about to plough $400m into the ground in West Africa?

Ah ok cheers Mr T

Also I wonder if the mill going down due to a maintenance issue that cost three weeks' production in Q3 has resulted in this appointment. If so, good.

Yes but I'm guessing they can only sell bullion mon-fri but I might be being naive.

let's call it $20million a week.

Just wanted to point out that with the GP at this level CEY is grossing more than $4million every day. (Mon-Fri)

I hope everyone has their seats in the upright position and their tray tables secured. I look forward to waving at Cowichan from 50,000ft.

Tibbs I do find Maguire really difficult to follow but think his central message never changes - the gold price is being secretly suppressed by a FOMC conspiracy and is about to rocket in value at any second . Has he ever been bearish about gold or any other pm?

No.

On Jan 20 Centamin is likely to announce gold production of around 130,000oz and revenues potentially in excess of US$250 million. (130k x 1900 = 247million). At that point 83p is going to start looking absurdly cheap.

Tibbs, electricity from the grid is close to half the cost of diesel generation on site. The 40-odd million buck cost of grid connection will be recovered in just over one year - ONE YEAR.

Sukari will call on it most at night when load demand from the rest of Egypt is low.

In the case of power outage or blackout they can revert to diesel generation anytime it's needed.

Grid connection is a superb development and absolute no brainer, it cannot happen soon enough.

Yes it is. When the power's there they can use it. When not they can continue trucking and burning diesel in spite of the enormous expense and inefficiency this entails.

Amazon should be charged an up front license to operate in the UK based on a percentage of global turnover. Then whatever magic tricks they pulled on PL accounting we'd have our cash already. Another benefit is that watching amazon's accountants scrambling to disguise global turnover would then become event television, ozarks eat your heart out. Sorry this is off topic

Paul Metcalfe I think your assessment is accurate and entirely reasonable.

A lot of the changes Horgan has made are transforming the efficiency of sukari but the effect is cumulative and not necessarily noticed overnight. The operation is being improved and brought to standard across the piece. I believe him when he says a safe mine is a well-run mine and Sukari has been one of the safest.

Why is the SP in the bin then? Look at the world. Two wars currently raging with the threat that both could lead to global conflagration, one of them on Sukari's doorstep. Strong possibility of a global recession and debt crises. Also centamin is going to be spending a lot of money in the next 3 years and that adds risk to the company.

I still think it is hugely undervalued at present and topped up yesterday at 81.7 Wish I'd waited a few hours to do so but hey ho, still think it's a good bet.

Bears are always right - in the end.

Re what will it take ?

1) Q4 delivery on guidance with strong production and revenue.

2) A more peaceful world.

3) More doveish central bank rate policies.

4) No global recession.

5) No G7 debt trap doom loop.

Not much to ask is it?

Seems to me Cowichan is not on our side, recently all he's interested in is trashing this stock. There is no bit of news relating to this company that he will report as positive though there has been plenty.

Hi Dasut, if Doropo gets the green light there will be a period when tens of milions of dollars are going out the door and into the ground in West Africa every quarter for no return. So the build phase will be a tricky period I guess...

Cowichan it's been only 12 months since Cey cleared 127500oz in Q3 2022 - not so far away from 130. And Horgan mentions new "flexibility" in the open pit as a result of all the waste stripping - meaning access to better grades is available. I say Q4 production , barring further unforeseen production issues, will be very close to or in excess of 130000oz. You say not. Let's see who's right.

Hi Rebess so while the mill was out of action they could not process ore of course but carried on truck and shovel operation and piled up the "Run of Mine" (ROM) in a heap next to the mill. Since October 1 the mill has been grinding thru this at max capacity so I expect Q4 to be a belter, in excess of 130,000oz. Likewise Q4 revenues with 60,000 of those ounces guaranteed at 1900 whatever happens to the GP, should be good news.