Member Info for 3bear

ha nope sorry folks

Hoping this might make it easier to read. HNY all.

Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue 194.5m 794.4m 733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised 1721/oz 1792/oz 1797/oz -0.3%
AISC 165m 622.6m 502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold 1460 1405 1234 +13.9%

Below is my guess for the Q4 results and FY22 numbers. I've been having trouble tabulating so apols if they're not so easy to read.

Q4 FY22 FY21 YoY
Production 114,000 445,410 415,370 +7.2%
Revenue $194.5m $794.4m $733m +8.3%
Gold sold 113,000 443,197 407,252 +8.8%
Avg realised $1721/oz $1792/oz $1797/oz -0.3%
AISC $165m $622.6m $502.4m +23.9%
AISC/oz sold $1460 $1405 £1234 +13.9%

Production, sales and revenue all looking good.
It is the market reaction to the AISC figure that concerns me - up almost a quarter on 2021, although we have known about this for some time.
I think the AISC guidance for 2023 will be a key driver of share price movement on Jan 20 but FWIW I believe 2023 will be even better than 2022 at Sukari, so bring it on.
Happy New Year and good luck everyone.

Welcome back Mr Tibbs, I missed your posts, best wishes and happy New Year when we get there

Second that dealts, Happy Christmas all.

Just wondering what impact Q4 numbers will have as both production and revenue will be down on that stellar Q3.

However, FY22 numbers are going to be very encouraging overall.

If they are guiding a sensible AISC for FY23 the SP could really fly.

I think the supposed logic goes like this. Inflation lower = lower bank rate = lower yields on cash = lower penalty for holding non-yielding assets like gold? Although another factor is that 12 years of extravagant QE and zero rate cash by has inflated the price of all assets, housing, equities, second hand cars and - of course gold - to unprecedented levels so a bit of row back here and there to be expected. You have nailed the other theory - bobbins!

Cheers Cowichan, in fact cey wouldn't have needed to raise any capital as they had the cash sitting in the bank. Hmm.

Big picture though, the mine is better run now than it was in the past as far as I can make out and the news seems to keep getting better quarter on quarter

Well that's fair enough Spoonington

GO nunquam!!!

FY23 guidance is key. IF there's a strong production forecast with MASSIVE drop in AISC for 2023 we will have lift off.

Spoonington Sotolo - where is the evidence that waste management has been inefficient? It seems to me that efficiency is one thing horgan is red hot on - from the size of the excavator buckets to grid connection and almost every single point in between. I've only been a shareholder since Apr 21 so bow to your more than two decades experience. But...it seems to me the last lot focused on delivery of 500oz/pa to the exclusion of all else until the pit literally fell in on top of them? The contractor must be making a 20% margin on clearing the waste but what were the alternatives - buy a fleet of trucks and excavators and do it in house? Max cap ex up front to do it that way?

more than 500,000 ounces for more than 10 years in the bottom half of the cost curve

That's cey in a nutshell.

Ha! Eat my Shorts, er, shorts.

DASUT 125,000oz would be great, my sentiment is right with you, but I feel Horgan's guidance during the Q3 presentation was for 110-115,000oz next time - AISC is still going to be $160million-plus so we're not out of the woods quite yet but certainly heading in the right direction?

An older colleague who was approaching retirement some years ago had a phrase he used when things were going well. "We're in the pound seats now," he'd say. It was learned from his father and referred to the best seats in the local cinema, front row middle of the dress circle (!) which, when his dad were a lad, came at the unimaginably high price of one whole pound sterling per seat.

Since my grumble on Q3 results day the SP is up more than 25% and is in the pound seats, sort of. Let's hope it has further yet to go.

It has been sooooooo long that we could take a dip in the SP and still find ourselves in the high 90s. Think most of this morning's lift is due to the US mid-terms not handing too much power to either side - CPI print will be fascinating.

My guess is US CPI will be disappointingly strong due to the lag between fiscal policy and economic effect and that we'll take a bit of a hit.

Having said that I don't believe this with enough conviction to sell a few in the hope of buying back cheaper later on. So in summary - it's anybody's guess.

Imagine where we'd be with the gp back up around 1850. So much more to come from this company.

Now that cey is in such good nick operationally one of the biggest downside risks I worry about is the GP itself. After more than 10 years of QE and unprecedented fiscal looseness the price of all assets has been inflated: housing, equities cryptos and yep gold. Now that central banks are raising the cost of capital and reducing liquidity, will this exert further downward pressure on the GP? I wonder if that is the logic behind Marshall Wace's short position. Anyhoo... typical of me to come over all bearish with the SP close to 6 month highs.