Member Info for 3bear

BushyTailed you're not related to Wildtiger by any chance - he's a really successful day trader too?

...is paranoid, goes the lyric.

The GP is stuck in the 1600s yet the SP is back is in the 90s.

Let us hope this really is a corner turned.

Fascinating stuff. It'll probably cost even more by the time they do it - no wonder they want a debt facility. I hope they're open with the results and detail of the PFS

Steady as she goes my AISC.

Production 127,512oz best since Q3 2020 (128,240oz)
Revenue $218m, best since Q3 2020. ($230m and that was on an average realised GP of 1933/oz)

With these numbers, Horgan has basically guaranteed that he will hit FY guidance for 2022. That's great. But get ready cos he admitted in the presentation that he will use these stellar Q3 results to buy him time and leeway for the rest of the year. So Q4 production will be down - to around 114000oz if he's going to hit the middle of guidance for 22. As to revenues that depends on the GP.
For AISC in Q4 expect to see US$165m spent in spite of solar saving truckloads of diesel - around 300 truckloads (5.5m litres and around 5m USD) over the quarter.

To my mind these results show that this company has turned a significant corner in terms of consistency and general competent management. Horgan was more guarded and less enthusiastic during the presentation today which worried me somewhat, but overall he gave me enormous confidence that my too large investment in his company is a sensible thing.

Some people on here remind me of a story told by the RAF Tornado pilot Pablo Mason who worked for a budget airline after surviving the first Gulf War in 91. He was flying a bunch of Brits down to the Costa del Sol and came on the intercom thus: "This is your captain speaking. I have never seen a more miserable bunch of people boarding my aircraft in my entire career. Cheer up you miserable bunch, you're going on holiday."

A passenger complained and Pablo was sacked. These results look to me like a sunny weekend in Majorca. As far as I'm concerned we're on our way to glorious sunlit uplands and razors has got it right - the only mistake to make on this stock is not to have your line in the water.

Good luck all.

To clarify, I was saying -
1) These results are very good.
2) Why then is the SP so low?
er, that's it

Sotolo - production 127,512oz the best we've seen for a couple of years and we're at 83p. I don't get it even if the gp this morning is 1630.

These numbers are fab!?! Production way ahead of expectations and 126000oz sold for 218m revenue. AISC still scary at $163m. These are significant advances Q on Q and yet the SP has tanked. Bizarre

Well said Mike - all the people posting on here contribute to the life of the board. It is totally ok to think someone's a bleepity bleep but no need to call them on it directly. Argue against sure, but ultimately if you don't like it, don't read it, right? We're supposed to be helping each other out on here. Talking of which I hope Mr Tibbs is OK and starts posting again soon.

Anyway let us hope we are a few hours away from some really positive and encouraging news.

ah think I've worked it out - being a bear of little brain it takes a while - so the fact the ore and waste they're shifting is relatively light means they can use a lightweight truck tray, ie the old truck trays were designed for heavier loads than required?

DASUT now you have confused me - I thought the whole point of the lightweight truck trays was exactly that they weighed less? Thus the fuel and tyre savings when running empty? Still don't mind me, I've never been near a mine in my life.

Cheers Tony, v interesting.

I'm hoping Q3 results and all the promising news on solar, underground, EDX, etc will give us a boost BUT it depends which numbers get seized on - will it be production up and AISC down (great) or will a fall in revenues due to weaker GP be the headline and give the sp another kicking? FWIW I think the good news will massively outweigh the bad not least because all the good news is stuff that's in the company's control, ie the result of good management. The only bad news (I sincerely hope) is outside its control ie the GP. Let's see.

yep I share Tornadotony's frustration - in the Q2 results presentation Horgan said newsflow would be coming 'thick and fast'. We haven't heard a squeak since... Still I am hopeful that increased production and better AISC/oz sold will give us an uplift even if revenue for the quarter is down slightly on weaker GP.

If the company delivers on guidance - which is not guaranteed - and my guestimate of the average gold price achieved in Q3 is not too far out, then the numbers should look something like this on October 20:

Production 120,000oz
Revenue US$ 204,000,000
Gold sold 118,500oz @ $1722/oz
AISC US$ 160,000,000
AISC/oz sold $1350

Not necessarily - both the ftse 100 and 250 driven lower by the budget - CEY's a 250 stock so it's taken a hit along with the rest imo. Gold now below 1650 might have summat to do with it too tho

Have been pleased and surprised at how well the SP has been holding up with GP sub 1700. Adverse reaction now due to UK budget I think? Hoping for good news and a decent uplift on Oct 20.

The presentation in the link was interesting, a lot of it made good sense, but at the end of the day this is a sales pitch. I think he's right about holding more cash in your portfolio than we're used to though.

Hi Sotolo, hoping for lower AISC per oz sold compared to Q2 due to higher production.
If guidance on track my fag packet says total Q3 AISC should be around 160m v 150.7m in Q2

....also increased Q3 production and lower AISC should give us another boost on Oct 20

Gnome you're a scientist - are you not worried about the long term effects of burning/consuming 15 billion litres of oil every day? We're on a unique spaceship gliding through the void with no life raft. It just seems a bit reckless to me?

It just seems a bit risky to continue dumping the amount of carbon we produce every day into the atmosphere and oceans - 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily - when no-one really understands what effect this will have long term?

What vexes me is we haven't made more effort with hydrogen - the most common element in the universe, three-quarters of the surface of our planet is covered in it, it releases the most energy/kg burned (3x that of petrol/gasoline) and converts to pure water when burned. The only drawback is energy density. One kilo of hydrogen takes up a small room (12 cubic meters) as opposed to 1.33 litres for a kg of petrol - I think hydrogen is rubbish for vehicles but would be great for central heating. Especially when you consider that offshore wind in Scotland now is generating so much energy it is overloading the grid in strong weather and has to be disconnected. Why not use that surplus to boil hydrogen out of sea water, store it under pressure and connect it to our boilers? When burned it returns to the sea as pure water - my inner hippy thinks this is so beautiful man.