Member Info for 3bear

sorry Q1 AISC/oz sold shd be 1558 - otherwise these numbers are fag packet solid!

Sotolo! Now I think you're being a bit pessimistic. I've had my fag packet out as well. Horgan insists he's on target for guidance. Lets say he meets the middle 445,000 oz produced at US1350 per oz sold. Firstly, sales will be slightly less than production, say 98% - 436,000oz sold. That allows for an AISC/oz sold of £588,600,000. First quarter AISC was $144.2M. That leaves an average 148m AISC per quarter for the rest of the year if he hits production.
Try this
Q1
Production 93,109
Sold 92,559
AISC $144.2m/oz sold $1588
Q2
Production 107,000
Sold 104,900
AISC $148m/ oz sold $1410
Q3
Production 118,000
Sold 115,000
AISC 148m/oz sold $1286
Q4
Production 127,000
Sold 124,000
AISC 148m/oz sold $1193
This excludes capex being front loaded for Q1 or the impact of the solar plant commissioning in H2 which should both lower AISC. It doesn't account for inflation. But with AISC of $148m/quarter for the rest of the year he's got some leeway. Only issue is the gold price!

GP drops on dollar strength.
But Cey revenue is in US$, the value of which has increased.

Cheers Mike, yeah we're overdue some good news.

I've been in touch with Mystic Meg, the man down the pub and Tim the magic tortoise. Their guess on Q2 numbers as follows:
Production 107,000oz
Revenue $181m (98,000oz sold at $1850)
AISC US$125m
AISC/oz sold US$1275

Anyone else got a clue what we might be getting?

Q2 AISC should be around $1250/oz if he's going to hit mid-guidance of $1350/oz for FY2022

Q1 revenue was US$174.6m
AISC was US$144m.2m
Deferred capex from Q4 2021, exploration and royalty fees meant the company made a US$21.5m loss in Q1.
Q2 should be better

If Horgan is going to hit the middle of his full year guidance then Q2 production should be somewhere between 105-110000 ozs. AISC for the quarter should fall markedly, both as a function of more ounces produced and lower capex (circa $50million v $72m in Q1). Fingers crossed for some good news and a lift in the SP on July 20.

goldgnome - 7kg of gold/tonne. I've been reading up on mining industry and believe the technical term for this sort of grade is "WOOHOO." No wonder they want to add a gravity circuit to the processing plant

Is this it? Posted yesterday on the cey website

https://www.centamin.com/media/2832/cey-investor-presentation_150622_final.pdf

If Horgan's production guidance is on target then Q2 production should be well north of 100,000oz - hitting mid-guidance numbers would indicate around 107000 for example. The Q2 AISC should be well down due to lower capex and more ounces. If I had any cash left I'd be piling in...

Analyst consensus is 6.4c for FY22, about 5.1p sterling. Even if they're wrong and we get the 5c(4p) minimum. At 78p that's a 6.5% and 5.1% return respectively. Not quite double digit but a long way north of any savings account I can find

Just topped up at sub 80, got my average down to 91.8. which seemed like a great price...until very recently.

even when some of that blood is your own....

Hear hear goldgnome, too right

Surely the best way to support the share price is to grow the business? Share buybacks are just another way of handing company cash to shareholders IMHO, it may give the SP a short term boost but ultimately I think the senior management are doing the right thing - ie investing in future production rather than shoring up the SP artificially?

It seemed to me that Horgan and the board all but ruled out a share buyback at the AGM.

I think they've made it pretty clear that they are not planning any share buybacks. It seems Horgan's view is the best use of capital is investing in improvement of existing mining operations and the development of new ones.

This is the massive waste stripping operation needed to stabilise the open pit that has been hammering the sp and aisc. As far as I understand it, the previous management dug the pit too deep and too narrow chasing short-term ounces to fund unsustainable dividends and in an attempt to convince that they were running a successful operation. The new management is putting this right which is a good thing. But in the meantime we're paying for it in reduced divi and tanking SP.

Horgan was pretty upfront about how awful this quarter was going to be to be fair. The hope is that from here on ounces goes up and AISC comes down. He's stuck to his FY guidance so 430-460 and 1275-1425. Capex for the year is front loaded with the costs of taking undergound in house, waste stripping and solar. It was a double whammy because underground takeover also knocked production. With all that bad news in the open, and the share price already recovering in the low 90s I think today was the last ever chance to buy in at 80-something. Caveat: This prediction may only last a day or two knowing CEY.