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No I'm trying to work out what's behind the news, like last years Q1 when the AISC soared up to 1558 and SP tanked - that's news, behind the news was the next three quarters were always going to be better so I bought in big time all the way down to 75 without any charts. If you're successfully making intraday gains fine and dandy. I'm looking at a bigger picture. Neither method is wrong.

If charts work for you that's great. For me, they record the past in forensic detail which is worse than useless when I'm trying to figure out what's happening next year in Sukari and Doropo.

Fair enough, not really bothered by intraday movements.

I don't understand a word of any of that. What I do know is Q1 results are going to be a bit disappointing but Q2, 3 and 4 much better.

I feel I've got it largely right on Cey since April 2021, also Lgen, M&G and Phnx. But if you want to talk about capital destruction, try investing in Saga just before the pandemic struck. Yeee-ouch, 83% loss on that investment. Likewise Credit Suisse. Doh. Swings and roundabouts.

If Centamin delivers on its guidance for 2023 then Q1 results are going to cause some short term pain with production of around 100,000oz and AISC of $150m you're looking at a Q1 AISC/oz sold of 1500+ just like last year. I would not be surprised to see the GP back in the 90s on this news, and I will be piling in at that point as Q2, 3 and 4 will all steadily improve and years 2023, 24 and 25 will each be better than the last

HEY Mark99999 first four words of that post fine - last two NOT OK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADh6QTp8798

He's making a lot of sense to me

C'mon Tibbs it's time to start looking forward rather than back? Fwiw I see centamin as a long term growth share but in the very near term it feels like groundhog day. We're going to see disappointing Q1 production numbers which will accentuate the high AISC just like last year. I've been taking a bit of profit and have sold down half my stake but that still leaves me with a significant lump in for the long haul and if/as the SP drops I intend to build back up again.

So it would appear the Capital Drilling contract is good value after all. To do it in house Cey would have had to buy trucks and excavators with an 8 year lifespan for a 3-4 year job. Then with nothing for the machines to do they would have been handed to EMRA because the terms of the concession prevent Centamin from selling them on.

oufc the last question of the webcast was about why they contracted out the waste stripping and how long it has to go - I think he said 18 months to 2 years?

Yep the reality is kicking in, Centamin is looking good but is going to remain a high-cost producer for a while yet.

On mid-guidance for 2023 they're expecting to spend another $600m+ getting the gold out of the ground this year.

Midas ramp - love it.

FY22 results will show increased production and revenues but AISC up at least 20 per cent. As a result profits will be down on last year. As the full extent of the cost of production sinks in, I think the SP may take a hit.

The good news is that Horgan said he would use Q4 22 to set up for a good Q1 23. So we should see strong production numbers in April and if the GP holds up, revenues close to record levels.

As Dasut says: Keep the faith - Centamin is going in the right direction.

Let's hope you're right Steve. Being gloomy I suspect inflation is much more deeply entrenched than we know. It's a difficult genie to get back in the bottle and QE went off the scale during lockdown.

Dasut - like you baffled by this really significant and sustained uphill charge after months and months languishing below the 90p mark. The GP alone won't do it. Also we have a long way to go before the AISC is brought under control. The turnaround within the company doesn't seem to explain a 50% uplift since Oct 19. I have a nasty suspicious side that wonders if someone out there knows something we don't. At the risk of sparking off a load of conspiracy theories - could there be a bid in the offing ?

Agreed, I might disagree with some of Mr T's output but I missed him when he wasn't here and appreciate his return to the board. Like everyone on here, if you don't like someone's posts, don't read 'em.

Horgan also has M&A ambitions. A two-edged blade if ever there was one.

Hi Dan, love the 'we demand more' sentiment but think you're being a bit harsh?

The simple moving average of the London fix for Q4 was $1730 and the price realised usually comes in a touch below this number - hence my guess of $1721 for Q4 sales.

Also Horgan went to some length to stress they boosted production in Q3 to give themselves an easier run in Q4 and still expected to hit mid-guidance for FY22 - implying production around 114,000oz for the last quarter.

You can't seriously be accusing the management of corruption if these sort of numbers come in?

I've been trying to find the company's previous AISC guidance for 2023.

Best I can do is P36 of the Investor Presentation for December 2021: 450-475,000oz @ $975-1200/oz sold.
This was a hasty AISC upgrade from two months previously in the October 21 presentation (p10) : 450-475 @ $900-1075

From this point the company has not mentioned AISC guidance again as far as I can see - but I've got a niggling memory that production was upgraded to 460-480, just can't find it?

The fierce inflation of the last year must have nudged the predicted AISC numbers higher - perhaps the reason the company hasn't mentioning AISC guidance for more than a year. I'm itching to know what they think this number will be.

On a more cheery note, GP 1828 as I write - which in the 3bear cave warrants a lower case woohoo.