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DASUT 125,000oz would be great, my sentiment is right with you, but I feel Horgan's guidance during the Q3 presentation was for 110-115,000oz next time - AISC is still going to be $160million-plus so we're not out of the woods quite yet but certainly heading in the right direction?
An older colleague who was approaching retirement some years ago had a phrase he used when things were going well. "We're in the pound seats now," he'd say. It was learned from his father and referred to the best seats in the local cinema, front row middle of the dress circle (!) which, when his dad were a lad, came at the unimaginably high price of one whole pound sterling per seat.
Since my grumble on Q3 results day the SP is up more than 25% and is in the pound seats, sort of. Let's hope it has further yet to go.
It has been sooooooo long that we could take a dip in the SP and still find ourselves in the high 90s. Think most of this morning's lift is due to the US mid-terms not handing too much power to either side - CPI print will be fascinating.
My guess is US CPI will be disappointingly strong due to the lag between fiscal policy and economic effect and that we'll take a bit of a hit.
Having said that I don't believe this with enough conviction to sell a few in the hope of buying back cheaper later on. So in summary - it's anybody's guess.
Now that cey is in such good nick operationally one of the biggest downside risks I worry about is the GP itself. After more than 10 years of QE and unprecedented fiscal looseness the price of all assets has been inflated: housing, equities cryptos and yep gold. Now that central banks are raising the cost of capital and reducing liquidity, will this exert further downward pressure on the GP? I wonder if that is the logic behind Marshall Wace's short position. Anyhoo... typical of me to come over all bearish with the SP close to 6 month highs.
Steady as she goes my AISC.
Production 127,512oz best since Q3 2020 (128,240oz)
Revenue $218m, best since Q3 2020. ($230m and that was on an average realised GP of 1933/oz)
With these numbers, Horgan has basically guaranteed that he will hit FY guidance for 2022. That's great. But get ready cos he admitted in the presentation that he will use these stellar Q3 results to buy him time and leeway for the rest of the year. So Q4 production will be down - to around 114000oz if he's going to hit the middle of guidance for 22. As to revenues that depends on the GP.
For AISC in Q4 expect to see US$165m spent in spite of solar saving truckloads of diesel - around 300 truckloads (5.5m litres and around 5m USD) over the quarter.
To my mind these results show that this company has turned a significant corner in terms of consistency and general competent management. Horgan was more guarded and less enthusiastic during the presentation today which worried me somewhat, but overall he gave me enormous confidence that my too large investment in his company is a sensible thing.
Some people on here remind me of a story told by the RAF Tornado pilot Pablo Mason who worked for a budget airline after surviving the first Gulf War in 91. He was flying a bunch of Brits down to the Costa del Sol and came on the intercom thus: "This is your captain speaking. I have never seen a more miserable bunch of people boarding my aircraft in my entire career. Cheer up you miserable bunch, you're going on holiday."
A passenger complained and Pablo was sacked. These results look to me like a sunny weekend in Majorca. As far as I'm concerned we're on our way to glorious sunlit uplands and razors has got it right - the only mistake to make on this stock is not to have your line in the water.
Good luck all.
Well said Mike - all the people posting on here contribute to the life of the board. It is totally ok to think someone's a bleepity bleep but no need to call them on it directly. Argue against sure, but ultimately if you don't like it, don't read it, right? We're supposed to be helping each other out on here. Talking of which I hope Mr Tibbs is OK and starts posting again soon.
Anyway let us hope we are a few hours away from some really positive and encouraging news.
ah think I've worked it out - being a bear of little brain it takes a while - so the fact the ore and waste they're shifting is relatively light means they can use a lightweight truck tray, ie the old truck trays were designed for heavier loads than required?
DASUT now you have confused me - I thought the whole point of the lightweight truck trays was exactly that they weighed less? Thus the fuel and tyre savings when running empty? Still don't mind me, I've never been near a mine in my life.
Cheers Tony, v interesting.
I'm hoping Q3 results and all the promising news on solar, underground, EDX, etc will give us a boost BUT it depends which numbers get seized on - will it be production up and AISC down (great) or will a fall in revenues due to weaker GP be the headline and give the sp another kicking? FWIW I think the good news will massively outweigh the bad not least because all the good news is stuff that's in the company's control, ie the result of good management. The only bad news (I sincerely hope) is outside its control ie the GP. Let's see.
yep I share Tornadotony's frustration - in the Q2 results presentation Horgan said newsflow would be coming 'thick and fast'. We haven't heard a squeak since... Still I am hopeful that increased production and better AISC/oz sold will give us an uplift even if revenue for the quarter is down slightly on weaker GP.
If the company delivers on guidance - which is not guaranteed - and my guestimate of the average gold price achieved in Q3 is not too far out, then the numbers should look something like this on October 20:
Production 120,000oz
Revenue US$ 204,000,000
Gold sold 118,500oz @ $1722/oz
AISC US$ 160,000,000
AISC/oz sold $1350