Why the SP isn't reacting and may not for some time.21 Nov 2025 08:39
The following is an opinion, some thoughts, not a statement….I welcome a discussion.
The disconnect between Tao accrual and the share price.
It’s easiest to explain this as an analogy.
A trawler goes to sea to catch fish on a commercial sale. It’s had a productive voyage and fills its hold with a catch valued at £100,000 at today’s market prices.
But that fish has a natural shelf life and starts to degrade the moment it’s pulled out of the ocean. On board the trawler, the fish is worth nothing, arguably, at this point in time it’s actually a cost, in wages and overheads running the ship. If the ship breaks down mid voyage, the fish spoils and they lose a massive amount of value.
It only realises its value once they hit port, unload and convert the fish to fiat currency.
For ASTR, Tao is the fish on that trawler. The subnet could accrue $millions worth of Tao but if ASTR wants that reflected in an increase in share price it needs to be “converted” to a form that is recognised by the environment in which the SP exists. The real world, with real costs, in fiat currency or equivalent assets traditionally recognised as parity with fiat. Gold is a good example. Because right now I don’t think the market will assign the fiat asset value on a company balance to Tao that is available on crypto exchanges. I believe there will be a disconnect.
Sure, Tao doesn’t rot, but its inherent volatility, instability and ironically the one thing that makes it so very attractive, its decentralised status. Makes it unattractive as an asset on a traditional balance sheet to the very people that determine the share price in the real world “the market”.
All the time you can’t pay your mortgage, buy your groceries, pay your car insurance with Tao, it’s not going to get the same value ascribed to it on the balance sheet of a company.
Is it worth less? Of course not, it’s worth whatever the spot USD rate is in any given moment if you own it directly. And that’s part of the problem, it’s not established. It has no history, it’s not been stress tested, it isn’t regulated, all the things that tradfi looks for to ascribe a value on a company’s books.
Is the pivot that ASTR took yesterday exciting? Damn right it is. But it comes with inherent hurdles that accompany any new asset class.
Ultimately, it’s a choice, become the premier Tao treasury company in the UK/Europe/The World! But accept that there potentially could be a huge disconnect between the book value of the Tao holding and the mcap of ASTR reflected in the SP.
What we could see happening is a rapid build in value of Tao holdings and no appreciable increase in the SP of ASTR. Ultimately, I buy shares for increase in capital value, preferably within an ISA wrapper.
When I bought ASTR (last week) it was a company investing in AI with a diversified treasury in crypto. Yesterday it became a shell company for Bittensor subnet. Right now I don’
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